宏观经济 | 2022年5月31日 分析师认证和其他重要披露信息参见尾页. 1 报告摘要  疫情和防控措施冲击国内经济，政策支持提速，有利周期行业：受地区封城和物流瓶颈影响，四月生产和消费下行超预期，失业率上升，消费和地产疲软。5月高频数据显示出行和供给瓶颈稍有恢复，PMI回升。疫情和防控下二季度经济预计大幅放缓。近期政策支持信号不断强化。预计财政支持上升对冲增长下行，下半年基建投资同比增速可以达到10%左右。由于今年财政发力前置而经济仍面临下行压力，政府或需通过提高有效赤字或提前下达明年专项债的配额等方式来扩大年度财政空间，支持下半年的增长反弹。保持全年经济增长4.8%的预测。  货币政策保持结构性宽松，宽利率空间有限：国内价格压力受国际局势和国内政策影响回升，继续限制央行降息空间。预计货币政策继续保持流动性宽松，支持结构性信贷和宽信用。城投债有望受益。预计针对地产的金融和限购政策进一步放松，但地产销售成长仍受收入制约，境外地产债修复仍需时日。  海外利率高位回落。近期联储持续加息但暗示下半年政策可能调整。随着市场充分计入对联储的加息预期，美债利率阶段性震荡回落，与我们前期观点一致。我们仍预计联储未来几个月保持快速加息，今年全年加息225个基点，并于6月开始缩表。美国通胀见顶和增长指标的回落有助减少下半年利率走升的压力。保持2 年和10 年期美国国债利率今年底的预测至 2.7% 和 2.9%。未来几年利率仍有上升压力。  美元强势稍息，人民币汇率企稳回升。人民币兑美元汇率4月以来贬值，主要反映美元强势和日元快速贬值的区域影响。但随着美元汇率近期高位回落，人民币兑美元汇率回升。随着其他国家央行开始收紧政策及美国经济放缓的预期上升，美元指数预计年内继续回落。全球贸易周期和国内增长复苏有利中国的国际收支。维持年底人民币兑美元汇率6.4的预期。 下月重点关注：国际数据方面，需关注欧美国家通胀数据，就业数据，全球供应链变化情况以及疫情和俄乌危机的发展。市场将继续关注美联储官员的公开讲话及政策取态。目前大部分联储委员认为6月和7月的议息会议上分别加息50个基点，但是对于之后的加息路径看法存在分歧。国内宏观经济数据方面，5月经济活动数据预计总体继续低迷。随着上海逐渐解封，复工复产推进， 加上国内稳增长政策逐步落地，或对部分数据有所支持。 崔历 (852) 3911 8274 cuili@ccbintl.com 姜璐璐 (852) 3911 8012 jianglulu@ccbintl.com 张莹 (852) 3911 8241 zhangying@ccbintl.com 建银国际证券 ｜宏观研究 宏观月报: 2022年5月 –国内政策支持提速对冲增长下行，海外流动性压力回落 Monthly Economic Data Wrap – May 2022: Chinese growth remains under pressure as global financial tightening stalls 宏观经济 | 2022年5月31日 建银国际证券 2 Highlights:  While Covid control measures continue to weigh on the Chinese economy, an acceleration in policy support is expected to boost the economy later in the year: Industrial production and consumption fell more than expected in April as the unemployment rate rose and the property sector remained soft, reflecting continued headwinds from lockdowns and disruptions to logistics. High frequency data for May has shown some relief in traffic and supply chains; moreover, PMI improved. Meanwhile, policy support has been gathering pace. We expect more fiscal support and accelerated infrastructure construction, which is projected to grow 10% YoY and play a key role in supporting growth in 2H22F. As fiscal policies have been pre-loaded this year, and with downside pressure on the economy calling for additional support, we foresee the need for an increase in the annual fiscal envelope, either through an increase in the effective on-budget deficit financed by more funding from the intra-budgetary fund, or else by advancing the usage of next year’s bond quota. We expect economic growth to slow significantly, from 4.8% YoY in 1Q22 to 3.7% YoY in 2Q22F, before bouncing back to arrive at our full-year growth forecast of 4.8%.  Monetary policy likely to remain accommodative while price dynamics remain a constraint to rate easing. We expect monetary policy to remain reliant on structural tools to support targeted credit expansion. LGFV debt is likely to benefit from looser credit policies. We also anticipate continued relaxation in financial and purchasing restrictions on the property sector. However, property sales may remain weak due to muted household income growth, and offshore property bonds will need more time to recover.  Fed continues to tighten as expected. Upward pressure of UST rates eased in recent weeks as a hawkish Fed was fully priced in, in line with our expectation. We expect the Fed to continue with rate hikes at coming meetings, adding a total of 225 bp to its key policy rate this year, and starting its balance sheet runoff in June. However, as US inflation pressure peaks while the US economy cools, the likelihood the Fed will adjust its tactics to become less hawkish later in the year is rising. This would limit upward pressure on rates in the coming months. We keep our end-2022F projections of 2- and 10-year UST yields of 2.7% and 2.9%, respectively, implying limited upward pressure on rates in 2H22F. However, sticky inflation suggest rates could rise further in the coming years.  RMB exchange rate has risen against a slightly weaker dollar. RMB deprecation against the USD since late April, mainly reflects the strong dollar and the regional impacts of a dramatically weakening JPY. As the USD exchange rate retreated from its recent peak, the USDRMB rate appreciated modestly. We expect a weaker dollar later in the year as other central banks enter tightening cycles while the US economy slows. In addition, the global trade cycle and the recovery in domestic growth will lend support to China's balance of payments. We maintain our year-end USDRMB forecast of 6.4. Data releases and events in June: On the international front, our focus is on inflation and employment data from Europe and the US, the Russia-Ukraine crisis, and global supply chains. Now more than ever it will be critical to gauge the Fed stance from its speeches. Most policymakers now support a 50bp rate increase at each of the June and July meetings, but a divergence exists in the hiking path later this year. Domestically, econ