东吴证券(国际)-光学光电子行业深度-海外观察系列三：美股激光雷达隐喻

Equity Research·Industry Research·Optical Optoelectronics Optical Optoelectronics Industry Research 1 / 25 东吴证券（香港） 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Main] Overseas Observation Series 3: The metaphors from the U.S. lidar stocks Outperform (Maintain) Investment Thesis ◼ The U.S. lidar manufacturers went public successively since 2020. We view them as pioneering benchmarks for China’s lidar industry research. We picked five companies that went public in the early days as benchmarks: Velodyne (mechanical route), Ouster (hybrid solid-state route), Luminar, Aeva and Innoviz (pure solid-state route). The profit and cash flow of each company has not turned positive yet. The five companies’ revenues initially divided and market values varied widely. Luminar ranks the first among these five in term of market value. The company generated $32 million revenue and -$238 million profits in 2021. Technical route, product positioning, financial data and stock performance of the U.S. lidar manufacturers are key factors to pay attention to. ◼ Metaphor 1: Demand potential of lidar is huge in the long-run, but in the short term, we would suggest investors to follow domestic lidar installation volumes. Lidar provides safety redundancy in intelligent driving as the core sensor, contributing to an inelastic demand. Lidar can fill the gaps of cameras and millimeter-wave radar regarding reaction speed, application scenarios, and detail processing. Multi-sensor fusion becomes the future trend. 2022 is the first year of domestic lidar installations. With the launch of key models such as NIO ET7, Ideal L9, and Xiaopeng G9, we expect sales volume of models equipped with lidar to exceed 200,000 in 2022. Although lidar market in domestic passenger car is still small in 2022 (260 million dollars based on our estimate), it will grow rapidly in 2023 after domestic lidar companies enter the supplier lists of car manufacturers. ◼ Metaphor 2: Acquiring the designated spots mounting lidars on new car models is the key factor for lidar companies to grow. The lidar industry is moving towards reducing mechanical components, improving luminous efficiency, increasing computing power and reducing costs. Pure solid-state scanning solution will become the mainstream in the future. The lidar companies’ valuations in the capital market are mainly based on their forward technical routes. Luminar's MEMS+1550nm route is favored by the market, while Velodyne's mechanical products are relatively unpopular. Acquiring designated spots mounting lidars on new car models is the key factor for lidar companies to grow. ◼ Metaphor 3: The opportunities at the upstream of the industrial chain are more certain. China's supply chain has global advantages. The lidar industry is still exploring the technical routes between semi-solid and solid-state; thus, the performances of upstream component manufacturers (optics, lasers, chips and other suppliers) are more deterministic. Compared with overseas vehicle manufacturers, domestic vehicle producers have relatively lower certification standards but are more radiacal in expanding business. Thus domestic lidar companies can enter domestic vehicle manufacturers’ supply lists more easily than overseas competitors and gain profits. ◼ Metaphor 4: The lidar industry valuation is temporarily anchored to Luminar. The component manufacturers may have thematic investment opportunities. In the history of Luminar, its PS ratio was 36x initially, reached the peak at > 800x, and now is still more than 150x. The lidar industry is valued based on 2025 revenue estimate, which is too optimistic. Lidar industry has huge market potential. Current Luminar is similar to Tesla in 2011, which means long-term growth will gradually offset short-term overvaluation. Upstream component manufacturers with performance support may have thematic investment opportunities under favorable industry news. ◼ Stock watchlist: Lidar components manufacturers: Sunny Optical, Focuslight, Everbright, Yongxin Optics. Overseas lidar producer: Luminar/Ouster, etc. ◼ Risks：The lidar installation miss expectation, epidemic disturbance, technical route innovation, etc. [Table_PicQuote] Industry Performance [Table_Report] Related reports 1、《Overseas Observation Series 1: Reference to the localization of SIC from Wolfspeed development》2022-02-26 2、《Sunny Optical Technology (02382): Optical leader grow rapidly with strong in-vehicle business》2021-07-27 Soochow Securities International Brokerage Limited would like to acknowledge the contribution and support provided by Soochow Research Institute, and in particular its employees Liangwei Zhang(张良卫) and Xueqing Bian (卞学清). [Table_Author] 30 May 2022 Research Analyst Hanyue Li (852) 3983 0823 kellyli@dwzq.com.hk -40%-35%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%2021/5/62021/9/22021/12/302022/4/28光学光电子沪深300Optical OptoelectronicsCSI300 证券研究报告·行业研究·光学光电子 光学光电子行业深度