Equity Research·Industry Research·Computer Industry Computer Industry Research 1 / 23 东吴证券（香港） 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Main] The opportunities in developing DCEP from the perspective of payment industry evolvement Outperform (Maintain) Investment Thesis ◼ From the perspective of individual non-cash payment methods (mainly C2B and C2C), both payment industry chains in China and the United States are mainly based on the four-party liquidation system. We believe that the changes in future payment carriers and methods, as well as technological innovation of enterprises, are likely to break the original industry chain balance and create new opportunities. ◼ The four-party liquidation system derived from social labor division, along with compromises of interests from all parties. There are four stages in the development of "card payment" in the United States: 1) The bilateral payment relationship was formed between merchants and consumers. 2) The tripartite liquidation system was formed after the accession of third-party issuers. 3) The four-party liquidation system was formed after the accession of liquidation institutions. 4) Fintech companies gradually joined the payment industry chain, forming a flourishing business ecosystem. At present, "card payment" and “third-party payment” in China also form a four-party liquidation system, in which major players are merchants, acquirers, clearing institutions and issuers. ◼ Profit distribution model in the payment industry chain in the US is relatively stable while in China, it has been broken once by third-party payment institutions. In the four-party liquidation system, capital flow in payment industry chain is fixed and all profits in the chain come from merchant transaction fees. The competitive advantage of the company as a each segment in the industry chain determines a company’s revenue and market value. In China, Alipay and WeChat Pay entered the chain through their plentiful application scenarios and customer traffic, gaining tens of billions of RMB revenue from issuers and clearing institutions (via e-wallet pay), and squeezing other players’ profits (via a credit-or debit card-linked e-wallet payment). ◼ DCEP as a new payment carrier in the future may improve efficiency and profit redistribution of China's non-cash payment industry chain: 1) High circulation and management costs of banknotes will be reduced. 2) Data barriers in financial institutions will be broken, improving currency management efficiency. 3) Functioning as M0, DCEP may waive service charge in collecting and withdrawing. 4) Simultaneous clearing and payment of DCEP may overshadow the significance of clearing institutions. ◼ Besides regular players such as acquirers, clearing institutions and issuers, non-cash payment industry chain in China and US have another common feature: business innovations and investment opportunities always spring up around merchant and user sides and end up with customer traffic and consumer scenarios. We prefer companies in constructing DCEP infrastructures because DCEP has not shown a mature business model yet in To B area. With the promotion of DCEP, we like companies that focus on business innovation on merchant and customer traffic sides, and provide marketing and user management services for banks. ◼ Stock watchlist: IT companies serving banks: Yusys(300674), Dcits(000555), Sunline(300348), etc. Hard wallet/financial machinery companies: Grgbanking(002152), Newland DT(000997), Xgd(300130), etc. Paying agent/acquirers: Lakala(300773), Bjca(300579), Koal(603232), etc. ◼ Risks：DCEP promotion is sluggish; application scenarios of DCEP less than expected; underlying technology of DCEP is immature ; revenues of companies in DCEP chain are less than expected, etc. [Table_PicQuote] Industry performance [Table_Report] Related reports 1、《The neglected domestic vital companies in high-Performance Computing》2022-04-05 2、《Investing in the digital economy with policy foresight》2022-03-31 Soochow Securities International Brokerage Limited would like to acknowledge the contribution and support provided by Liangwei Zhang(张良卫), Zijing Wang(王紫敬)and Xunyue He(何逊玥), employees of Soochow Research Institute. [Table_Author] 29 April 2022 Research Analyst Hanyue Li (852) 3983 0823 kellyli@dwzq.com.hk -22%-17%-12%-7%-2%3%8%13%2021/4/72021/8/62021/12/52022/4/5计算机沪深300ComputerCSI300 证券研究报告·行业研究·计算机 计算机行业深度 2 / 23 东吴证券（香港） 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Main] 从支付产业链看行业变迁：数字人民币 增持（维持） 投资要点 ◼ 从目前个人端非现金支付方式来看（主要包括C2B和C2C），中美支付产业链均以四方清算模式为主：我们认为，支付需求永恒存在，未来支付方式和支付载体的变化，以及企业的科技创新，均有可能打破原有产业链的平衡，创造新的机会。 ◼ 四方清算体系的产生是社会分工的必然和各方利益妥协的结果。从美国“卡支付”发展历程来看，主要经历了四个阶段：1）商家和消费者形成的两方支付关系；2）第三方卡组织加入后形成的三方清算体系；3）清算机构加入后形成的四方清算体系；4）Fintech公司逐渐加入支付产业链，形成百花齐放态势。目前中国的卡支付和第三方支付同样也形成四方清算体系。产业链主要参与者包括商户、收单机构、清算机构和发卡行。 ◼ 美国支付产业链利润分配较为稳定，但中国支付产业链的稳定已被第三方支付机构打破