本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 国投瑞银 国投瑞银基金管理有限公司(res@ubssdic.com) 使用。1 Internet Software &Services | Company Research Bringing China to the World SWS Research Co. Ltd 99 East Nanjing Road, Shanghai | +86 21 2329 7818 www.swsresearch.com 2018年11月5日 买入 维持 基本面风险出清，宏观风险仍在 阿里巴巴 (BABA:US) Market Data: Nov 02, 2018 Closing Price (US$) 148 Price Target (US$) 238 SPX 2723 IXIC 7357 52-week High/Low (HK$) 212/135 Market Cap (US$bn) 380 Market Cap (Rmbbn) 2622 Shares Outstanding (Mn) 2560 Exchange Rate (Rmb-US$) 6.9 Price Performance Chart: Source: Bloomberg Analyst Mae Huang A0230517010002 BGT702 huangqian@swsresearch.com Related Reports " ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING (BABA:US)—Seasonal pressure " 16 Oct 2018 " ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING (BABA:US)—Retail journey” 24 August 2018 " ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING (BABA:US)—Short-term expense "5 July 2018 Financial summary and valuation FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E Revenue (Rmbm) 158,273 250,266 378,136 508,908 642,791 YoY (%) 56.5 58.1 51.1 34.6 26.3 Adj. Net income (Rmbm) 60,309 85,766 99,972 134,098 174,859 YoY (%) 40.5 42.2 16.6 34.1 30.4 Adj.EPS (Rmb) 24.2 33.6 38.7 51.9 67.7 Adj.Diluted EPS (Rmb) 23.4 32.9 38.0 51.0 66.5 ROE (%) 24.3 26.6 25.2 28.3 30.1 Debt/asset (%) 37 39 43 44 43 Dividend Yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 P/E (x) 43.6 31.1 26.8 20.0 15.3 P/B (x) 9.4 7.3 6.3 5.2 4.2 EV/EBITDA (x) 34.6 24.5 19.2 14.2 10.5 Note: Diluted EPS is calculated as if all outstanding convertible securities, such as convertible preferred shares, convertible debentures, stock options and warrants, were exercised. 阿里巴巴报告FY2Q19收入为人民币851亿元（同比增长54％），略低于市场预期，调整后净利润为252亿元人民币（同比增长13％），远高于市场预期，主要源于高科技软件企业牌照更新带来的税务费用减免。 阿里巴巴将其FY19E收入指引下调至3750亿元人民币到3830亿元人民币区间（对应同比增长50％至53％）。 我们也注意到商家在下半年的营销压力，并将我们对阿里的客户管理收入预测后两个季度从30％以下调至28％，佣金同时下调至同比30-35％的增速，因此我们对阿里巴巴2019财年收入的预测总体下调至3780亿元人民币（同比增长51％）。 我们将FY19E的摊薄后每股盈利预测从人民币37.7元调整至人民币38.0元（同比增长16％），从FY20年从人民币51.8元调整为人民币51.0元（同比增长34％），FY21年从人民币69.5元调整至人民币66.5元（同比增长30％）。 我们维持目标价238美元，相当于43倍FY19E PE，10倍PB，2.7倍PEG，32倍EV / Ebitda和0.7倍P / GMV。 股价仍有61％的上行空间，我们维持买入评级。 基本面风险出清。 我们注意9月的季度对于阿里巴巴而言是19财年最弱的一个季度，其利润率（营业利润率刨除股权费用）下滑至自IPO以来的历史低位24%，也有由于消费行业压力和商家销售压力带来的收入指引下调的压力。 但在本季度财报过后，我们认为阿里巴巴的所有基本风险已经完全得到释放，收入指引已下调至可实现的合理水平，仍然优于大多数上市同业，且预计公司整体利润率将从下一个季度开始上升回复，主要源于杠杆率的释放，和低利润率业务整合拖累的减少。我们认为阿里巴巴的基本面风险已经出清，但中美两国的贸易战和潜在的经济下行周期等宏观风险仍然存在。 货币化延迟。 淘宝界面变更已于10月底全面推出，客户可在应用中看到更多推荐的产品，但到目前为止，应用里推荐流量的货币化尚未开始落实。公司希望在困难时期为商家提供更多的投资回报率。 我们认为这对于公司的长期发展是有利的选择，在当前市场环境下，客户管理收入增长率仍预计有28％的增速也是还可以的业绩水平了。 对于未来的货币化空间，我们估计未来几年天猫仍将有至少3-4％的上行空间，尽管这可能低于公司认为可以实现的目标。 维持买入。 我们认为阿里巴巴的估值仍然是被低估的状态，因为高增长的非盈利业务如阿里云，新零售，消费服务，国际零售，娱乐等均没有在阿里体内获得应有的估值水平。阿里基本风险已出清，宏观风险依然存在。我们将FY19E的摊薄后每股盈利预测从人民币37.7元调整至人民币38.0元（同比增长16％），从FY20年从人民币51.8元调整为人民币51.0元（同比增长34％），FY21年从人民币69.5元调整至人民币66.5元（同比增长30％）。 我们维持目标价238美元，相当于43倍FY19E PE，10倍PB，2.7倍PEG，32倍EV / Ebitda和0.7倍P / GMV。 股价仍有61％的上行空间，我们维持买入评级。 The company does not hold any equities or derivatives of the listed company mentioned in this report (“target”), but then we shall provide financial advisory services subject to the relevant laws and regulations. Any affiliates of the company may hold equities of the target, which may exceed 1 percent of issued shares subject to the relevant laws and regulations. The company may also provide investment banking services to the target. The Company fulfills its duty of disclosure within its sphere of knowledge. The clients may contact compliance@swsresearch.com for relevant disclosure materials or log into www.swsresearch.com under disclosure column for further information. The clients shall have a comprehensive understanding of the disclosure and disclaimer upon the last page. 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 国投瑞银 国投瑞银基金管理有限公司(res@ubssdic.com) 使用。2October 12, 2010 Building Materials | Company Research Please refer to the last page for important disclosures Page 1 January 12,2015 Food, Beverage & Tobacco | Company Research 05 November 2018 Internet Software &Services | Company Research Sluggish consumption Alibaba reported 2QFY19 revenue of Rmb85bn (+54% YoY), slightly lower than consensus, and non-GAAP net profit of Rmb25bn (+13% YoY), much higher than consensus, thanks to tax advantages due to the renewal of its “key software enterprise” status. The company revised down its FY19 revenue guidance to Rmb375-383bn (+50-53% YoY). We lift our FY19E adjusted diluted EPS forecast from Rmb37.7 to Rmb38.0 (+16% YoY), but lower our forecasts from Rmb51.8 to Rmb51.0 in FY20E (+34% YoY) and from Rmb69.5 to Rmb66.5 in FY21E (+30% YoY). We maintain our target price of US$238 (43x FY19E PE) and, with 61% upside, our BUY recommendation. Fundamentals to recover. We noted Jul-Sep quarter would be a weak quarter for Alibaba in FY19E, with margin (operating margin excl. share-based compensation) slides down to historical low level of 24% since IPO, and with pressure on revenue guidance due to pressure on all merchants under weak consumption trend. However, af