世界银行报告：全球经济中期前景展望

世界银行集团旗舰报告2020 年 6 月全球经济展望章节 摘抄分析型 目录执行摘要：第 3 章和第 4 章 .....................................................................................................................................ii章节3COVID-19 大流行的持久伤痕 ....................................................................................................131................................................................................................................................................133................................................................................................................................................134................................................................................................................................................136................................................................................................................................................137全球活动和贸易 ...............................................................................................................137全球金融状况 ...................................................................................................................138商品市场 ..........................................................................................................................138................................................................................................................................................139溢出效应 .........................................................................................................................140漏洞：放大短期影响 ........................................................................................................141................................................................................................................................................144对潜在产出的影响 ...........................................................................................................145对生产力的影响 ...............................................................................................................149大流行的独特性质：放大长期影响....................................................................................150................................................................................................................................................158专栏 3.1 深度衰退如何影响新兴市场经济体的潜在产出？ ...........................................................146专栏 3.2 灾害如何影响生产力？ .................................................................................................151................................................................................................................................................................160附件 3.2 贝叶斯向量自回归模型 .................................................................................................170附件 3.3 EMDE 脆弱性指数 ........................................................................................................170附件 3.4 衰退的长期影响：数据和方法...............................................................................................171................................................................................................................................................172第 4 章火上浇油：大流行中的廉价石油 ................................................................................................181介绍 .........................................................................................................................................183油价暴跌的驱动因素 .................................................................................................................185与之前中断时期的比较..............................................................................................................187油价暴跌对全球经济的影响 .......................................................................................................188过去油价暴跌 ..................................................................................................................1882014-16年油价暴跌 .........................................................................................................1902020年油价暴跌 ..............................................................................................................192专栏 4.1 2014-16 年油价暴跌后的改革 .......................................................................................193结论 .........................................................................................................................................198附件 4.1 方法论：石油价格变动的分解...............................................................................................199附件 4.2 1970 年以来油价暴跌 ...................................................................................................199附件 4.3 方法论：油价暴跌对产出的影响...........................................................................................200参考 .........................................................................................................................................201一世 执行摘要：第 3 章和第 4 章冠状病毒 (COVID-19) 大流行正在对全球经济造成严重打击。保护公共卫生