血制品销售企稳向好，四价流感疫苗放量可期

规范、专业、创新 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明1 华鑫证券·公司报告 证券研究报告·公司深度报告 主要财务指标（单位：百万元） 投资要点：  血制品销售企稳向好。近一年多来，受两票制等政策的影响，血制品行业增速略有放缓；但长期来看，国内血制品行业整体供不应求的格局并未发生根本性改变。公司作为国内血制品行业的龙头企业，在单采血站数、采浆量和产品种类上等都位居行业前列。当前公司已逐渐消化两票制带来的冲击影响，渠道去库存转好，经营状况逐步改善，公司血制品业务已基本回到增长的良性轨道，未来有望继续保持良好增长态势。  四价流感疫苗放量可期。受前期疫苗事件的影响，国内疫苗行业竞争格局正发生深刻的变化。冬春季属于流感高发季节，但受部分流感疫苗生产企业的退出或大幅减产，导致当前整个流感疫苗市场出现供给不足的局面，批签发量仅为去年同期的一半左右。华兰生物一直以来作为国内流感疫苗的龙头企业，拥有高质量的产品、良好的生产工艺和充足的产能，尤其是公司9月份新上市的类独家品种四价流感疫苗备受市场关注，四价流感疫苗相较于三价流感疫苗优势明显、定价也更高，随着四价流感疫苗的放量，未来将有望显著增厚公司业绩。  在研单抗产品线丰富。单抗是生物制药领域增长最快的细分子行业，全球销售额已达千亿美元。国内单抗市场发展空间广阔，公司从2013年开始进军单抗药物领域，目前已有7项在研产品，其中贝伐单抗和曲妥珠单抗已经完成I期临床；利妥昔单抗和阿达木单抗处于I期临床阶段；德尼单抗、帕尼单抗和伊匹单抗已获得临床试验批件。公司在研单抗药物种类丰富，未来发展值得期待。  盈利预测与投资评级。我们预测公司 2018-2020 年实现归 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E 营业收入 2,368 3,002 3,652 4,390 （＋/－） 22.4% 26.8% 21.7% 20.2% 营业利润 916 1,192 1,492 1,834 （＋/－） 9.3% 30.2% 25.1% 23.0% 归属母公司净利润 821 1,052 1,307 1,598 （＋/－） 5.2% 28.1% 24.2% 22.3% EPS（元） 0.88 1.13 1.40 1.72 市盈率 44.3 34.6 27.8 22.8 公司基本情况（最新） 总股本/已流通股（万股） 93009 / 80255 流通市值（亿元） 314 每股净资产（元） 5.53 资产负债率（%） 7.32 股价表现（最近一年） 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研发部 分析师：杜永宏 执业证书编号：S1050517060001 电话：021-54967706 邮箱：duyh@cfsc.com.cn 华鑫证券有限责任公司 地址：上海市徐汇区肇嘉浜路750号 邮编：200030 电话：（8621）64339000 网址：http://www.cfsc.com.cn -40.00%-30.00%-20.00%-10.00%0.00%10.00%20.00%30.00%40.00%华兰生物沪深3002018年11月23日 医药生物 华兰生物（002007）：血制品销售企稳向好，四价流感疫苗放量可期 当前股价：39.12元 推荐(维持) 规范、专业、创新 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明2 证券研究报告·公司报告 属于母公司净利润分别为10.52亿元、13.07亿元、15.98亿元，对应EPS分别为1.13元、1.40元、1.72元，当前股价对应PE分别为 34.6/27.8/22.8倍， 维持“推荐”评级。  风险提示：血制品业务销售不达预期的风险；四价流感疫苗销售不达预期的风险；单抗等新产品研发进度不达预期的风险。 规范、专业、创新 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明3 证券研究报告·公司报告 目 录 1．血液制品龙头企业，大生物格局稳步推进 ··································································································· 5 1.1公司概况 ···································································································································································· 5 1.2.公司产品结构 ···························································································································································· 6 1.3公司经营态势 ···························································································································································· 8 2．血制品业务逐渐复苏，产品结构不断优化 ··································································································· 9 2.1血制品需求旺盛，行业整体发展向好 ···················································································································· 9 2.2公司血制品业务逐渐回暖 ······································································································································ 13 2.3人血白蛋白预计维持稳定增长 ······························································································································ 14 2.4静丙具备较大市场潜力 ，特免批签发增速良好 ································································································ 16 2.5凝血因子类产品市场竞争格局良好 ······················································································································ 19 3．四价流感疫苗优势明显，有望快速放量 ······································································································22 3.1疫苗行业发展前景良好 ·········································································································································· 22 3.2国内独家销售厂商，四价流感疫苗有望迎来快速放量 ······················································································ 23 4．单抗产品管线丰富 ·······································································································································27 5．盈利预测与投资评级 ···································································································································28 6．风险提示 ·····················································································································································29 图表目录 图表 1：主要子公司和参股公司情况 ...................................................................................................................... 5 图表 2：公司股权结构 .............................................................................................................................................. 6 图表 3：公司产品一览 .............................................................................................................................................. 6 图表 4：2013-2018H1公司收入构成情况 ............................................................................................................... 7 图表 5：2013-2018H1公司毛利构成情况 ............................................................................................................... 7 图表 6：2013-2018H1公司营业收入增长情况 ....................................................................................................... 8 图表 7：2013-2018H1公司归母净利润增长情况...................................................