1SecuritiesResearchReport|HongKongStockStrategyContact：JoeYujoe.yu@valuable.com.hk请务必阅读最后特别声明与免责条款TradeDataClose258675dayschange(%)-2.4510dayschange(%)-1.295daysmovingavg2614010daysmovingavg2626310daysavgvol(bln)146.8ReportDate：2021-08-18BasicInformationIndexNameHangSengIndexIndexTypeEquityReleaseDate1969-11-24RegisteredAddressHongKongIssuingAgencyHangSengIndexesCoLtdWeightingMethodFloat-adjustedmarketcapitalization-weightedindexComposite58ReviewonHongKongEquityMarket1H21ContinueVolatilityWithNewOpportunitiesPerspectiveMarketposesgrowth.Inthefirsthalfof2021,theHangSengIndexexperiencedoscillatingchangesandfinallyrecordedanincreaseof4.93%.SignificanteventsthatinfluencedtheHangSengIndexareillustrated.MoreVolatilityintheHangSengTechnologyIndex.ThevolatilityoftheHangSengTechnologyIndexismoresignificantthanthatoftheHangSengIndex.ThePrice-to-EarningratiooftheHangSengTechnologyIndexreached70timesmultiplesbeforefallingto45timesmultiples.Macropolicieshaveasubstantialinfluenceonsectorperformance.Thegovernmentpoliciestoreformtherealestate,internet,educationsectorsareexpectedtogeneratevaryingimpacts.Ouropinions:Focusonsectorsinfluencedbyapotentialriseinfamily’sdisposableincome.Focusonindexesinfluencedbymassvaccinationprograms.Focusondivergenceincoreassets.风险提示：政策风险大于预期，海外市场波动，疫情失控 2[Table_Page]ValuableCapitalAugust18,2021WednesdayTableofContent1THEPERFORMANCEOFTHEHONGKONGEQUITYMARKETINTHEFIRSTHALFOF2021.......................................31.1MARKETSITUATION:OSCILLATINGMARKETAFTERINITIALPEAKING......................................................................................31.2CAPITALFLOW.............................................................................................................................................................52MACROPOLICIESINDICATIONS.................................................................................................................................62.1REALESTATESECTOR-FINANCIALRISKMANAGEMENT........................................................................................................62.2INTERNETSECTOR-PERSONALDATAPROTECTION..............................................................................................................72.3EDUCATIONSECTOR-REDUCEFAMILYEXPENDITURE...........................................................................................................73SECTOROUTLOOK......................................................................................................................................................8FiguresFigure1：PerformanceofHangSengIndexinthefirsthalfof2021........................................................................3Figure2：10-yearTreasuryyield................................................................................................................................5Figure3：HangSengTECHIndex（HSTI）................................................................................................................5Figure4：Netcapitalflow..........................................................................................................................................6Figure5：Realestatesectorperformanceindication...............................................................................................7Figure6：Internetsectorperformanceindication....................................................................................................7Figure7：Educationsectorperformanceindication.................................................................................................8 3[Table_Page]ValuableCapitalAugust18,2021Wednesday1TheperformanceoftheHongKongequitymarketinthefirsthalfof20211.1MarketSituation:OscillatingmarketafterinitialpeakingInthefirsthalfof2021,HangSengIndex(HSI)experiencedupheavalduetoaseriesofeventsimpactingtheHSIperformance.Yet,HSIhasstillachievedpositivegrowthandreported4.93%growthinthefirsthalfof2021.TheHangSengIndexexperiencedpositivetrendgrowthinJanuaryandreportedover31000inFebruarybeforeexperienceddownwardtrending.TheperformanceofHSIisinfluencedbychangingmacro-environmentandinternalandexternalpolicies,whichareexpectedtohavealastingeffect.Inthefirststageofthemid-year:HSIexperiencedarisingtrendinJanuaryandFebruaryof2021.First,theCovid-19casesthatpeakedindevelopedcountriesinJanuaryhavestartedtodecline.Moreover,thelaunchofthecovid-19vaccinationprogramhasfurtherraisedoptimismontheendofthecovid-19pandemic(Figure1-Note1).Second,thenewlyelectedUSPresidentiswidelyexpectedtoreducetheintenseSino-USrelationship.Someexpecttheimprovementinthebilateralrelationshipwouldtranslateintoimprovementoftradebetweenthetwocountries.Thecombinationofthevaccinationprogramandtheimprovedbilateralrelationshiphasraisedoptimismofthemacroeconomics,whichcouldhavestrengthenedHSIperformanceto2yearshigh.Inthesecondstageofthemid-year,therisingtrendofHSIhasnotbeensustaining.OptimismquicklyfadedawaywhentheHongKonggovernmentannouncedastampdutyincreasefrom0.10%to0.13%onFigure1：PerformanceofHangSengIndexinth