黄金白银日报：“散户”投机情绪高涨推升白银，金弱银强短期呈现

东吴期货研究所 021-63123063 www.dwfutures.com 323 “散户”投机情绪高涨推升白银，金弱银强短期呈现 类别品种开盘最高最低收盘单日涨跌%5日涨跌%伦敦金1865.421871.851849.181857.23-0.190.52伦敦银28.4030.1027.9728.58-1.645.88纽约金1866.601871.901850.001855.50-0.280.44纽约银28.4330.3528.1628.66-2.586.49上期金390.38394.18386.74393.020.761.25上期银5654.006085.005522.005999.005.1210.38上金T+D386.70390.20383.51389.560.731.26上银T+D 5573.006024.005440.005910.004.5610.67CRB商品174.20177.25174.20177.231.741.74LME 铜7800.007893.507765.507798.50-0.73-0.73WTI51.9953.7451.6453.560.022.61布伦特54.9156.5354.6056.352.380.84美元90.59291.06390.50290.9820.000.44欧美1.21341.21451.20561.20680.07-0.56澳美0.76400.76630.76060.76310.13-0.17人民币6.43076.46966.43076.4679-0.600.60美10年期TIPS-1.0375-1.0123-1.0389-1.02-0.411.93美10年期国债收益率137.1719137.2969137.0625137.190.000.11美5Y5Y通胀平衡预期2.09362.10322.05552.060.00-1.7 黄金ETF VIX 23.520024.030021.800021.815.675.67白银ETF VIX91.9000137.950078.810078.817.557.55黄金1月29日2月1日白银1月29日2月1日上金T+D-AU2106-3.07-4.09上银T+D-AG2106-94-96AU2112-AU210643.78AG2112-AG21068999伦敦金/伦敦银69.6068.48上金/上银74.4371.38纽约金/纽约银69.7168.52期金/期银69.7168.52金衡盎司盎司日期持有量（吨）持仓量增减持有量持有量（吨）持仓量增减持有量2021-2-11157.5-2.6337,214,92318722.331070.566019369822021-1-291160.13-4.6637299301.5817651.77-135.81567517458昨日库存本日库存库存增减上期金402940290上周本周增减上期银26254082608435-1697312327541209313-23441白银可用库容量 千克交易策略库存信息现货白银连续第三个交易日上涨，盘中一度突破30美元关口，跃升11.52%，至近八年高位，因散户投资者将关注点从GameStop和其他股票转向白银。不过黄金相对低迷的表现表明，白银涨势可能不会持续太久。目前金价回到1850美元重要关口上方，白银突破去年高点后回落。稳健投资者沪金逢低多单介入，激进投资者白银多单继续持有。iShares白银ETFSPDR黄金ETF全球最大黄金ETF--SPDR Gold Trust持仓较上日减持2.63吨至1157.5吨。白银ETF--iSharesSilverTrust持仓较上日大幅增持1070.56吨至18722.33吨，市场偏空黄金看多白银基金持仓贵金属市场信息表现货黄金周一开盘跳涨，欧盘初最高涨1.23%至1870美元/盎司上方，美盘回落至此关口下方波动，最终收涨0.74%，报1860.40美元/盎司。现货白银日内暴涨10%至30美元上方，刷新2013年2月以来新高，最终收涨7.77%，报29.03美元/盎司。元指数站上91关口，升至六周高位，受欧元疲软支撑，欧盟地区新冠疫苗接种可能延迟，恐拖累经济复苏。受散户投资者狂热情绪推动，现货白银尾盘涨近8%至29.05美元/盎司，创2013年以来收盘新高；现货黄金收于1860美元之上。宏观和基本面贵金属相关品种比价价差品种相关性 快手必读---黄金白银日报 东吴期货研究所 宏观与金融工程组 万 涛 021-63123175 从业证书：F0288751 投资咨询证书：Z0012259 期市有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究所办公地址： 上海市-黄浦区西藏南路1208号6楼 苏州市-工业园区星阳街5 号东吴证券大楼8楼 2021年2月2日星期二 东吴期货研究所 www.dwfutures.com 第 2 页 【市场信息参考】 每日交易行情表 2021-2-2合约收盘价 元涨跌 元涨跌幅 %持仓量 手持仓量变化 手成交额 万元成交量 手沪金2102388.964.001.041,368-84191,0732,359沪金2103390.864.941.2877-113,10980沪金2104391.484.181.0838,5352,0931,513,75938,897沪金2106392.644.461.15114,301-3,8139,600,838246,138沪金2108393.844.401.1324,509-1,0041,051,06226,853沪金2110395.224.981.2815,9451,195443,76611,291沪金2112396.764.901.255906613,735348沪金2202397.605.101.30181671218全部合约195,343-2,29912,718,054325,984合约收盘价 元涨跌 元涨跌幅 %持仓量 手持仓量变化 手成交额 万元成交量 手沪银21025,846.00500.009.3552,734-3,125290,88034,449沪银21035,870.00495.009.2147,1851,312999,854118,095沪银21045,895.00498.009.2347,214-5,348527,90461,961沪银21055,916.00499.009.2136,229-7,5181,713,859200,776沪银21065,939.00504.009.27516,56879,49619,569,1992,285,710沪银21075,959.00506.009.2833,1423,147231,56026,911沪银21085,961.00491.008.981,45515563,2377,304沪银21095,996.00528.009.66676173,508402沪银21105,962.00477.008.70193171,822208沪银21116,006.00488.008.84113945752沪银21126,025.00503.009.113,19680738,7364,402沪银22016,006.00464.008.37714583795全部合约738,77669,01423,441,8532,740,365 050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000沪金2102沪金2103沪金2104沪金2106沪金2108沪金2110沪金2112沪金2202上期金持仓量与成交量持仓量手成交量...0500,0001,000,0001,500,0002,000,0002,500,000上期银持仓量与成交量持仓量手成交量... -11 2,093 -3,813 -1,004 1,195 66 16 -20,000020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,000沪金2102沪金2103沪金2104沪金2106沪金2108沪金2110沪金2112沪金2202上期金持仓量与持仓量变化持仓量变化...持仓量手-3,125 1,312 -5,348 -7,518 79,496 3,147 155 17 17 9 807 45 -100,0000100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000上期银持仓量与持仓量变化持仓量变化...持仓量手 东吴期货研究所 www.dwfutures.com 第 3 页 金银基金持仓和CFTC非商业持仓量主要数据跟踪 -15-10-505101520110011201140116011801200122012401260黄金持仓量增减（吨）黄金ETF持有量-400-20002004006008001000120016000165001700017500180001850019000持仓量增减（吨）白银i s hares持仓量 (7.00)(6.00)(5.00)(4.00)(3.00)(2.00)(1.00)0.00370375380385390395400405410415上期金远近合约价差及走势2112-2106沪金2112沪金21060.0020.0040.0060.0080.00100.00120.00140.004000450050005500600065002020-09-092020-09-112020-09-132020-09-152020-09-172020-09-192020-09-212020-09-232020-09-252020-09-272020-09-292020-10-012020-10-032020-10-052020-10-072020-10-092020-10-112020-10-132020-10-152020-10-172020-10-192020-10-212020-10-232020-10-252020-10-27上期银远近合约价差及走势2106-2012沪银2012沪银2106 (12.00)(10.00)(8.00)(6.00)(4.00)(2.00)0.00350370390410430450470上金期现基差及走势现-近期沪金2012SGE黄金T+D(120.00)(100.00)(80.00)(60.00)(40.00)(20.00)0.0020.0040.00330038004300480053005800630068007300上银期现基差及走势现-近期沪银2012SGE白银T+D 0500100015002000250030003500400045002020-02-052020-02-202020-03-062020-03-212020-04-052020-04-202020-05-052020-05-202020-06-042020-06-192020-07-042020-07-192020