See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 8 Equity Research Equity Research Report 证 券 研 究 报 告 Company Report 股票研究 公司报告 证券研究报告 [Table_Info2] 大唐新能源 Datang Renewable (01798 HK) [Table_Info1] 清洁能源行业-风电及其它 Clean Energy Sector - Wind & Others [Table_Title] Company Report: Datang Renewable (01798 HK) Jake Wang 汪昌江 (86755) 2397 6675 公司报告： 大唐新能源 (01798 HK) wangchangjiang@gtjas.com 8 May 2020 [Table_Summary] Profitability Recovery Will Take Time, "Accumulate" 盈利恢复仍需时日，“收集”  DTR's 1Q20 net profit attributable to owners of the parent decreased 9.0% YoY to RMB480 mn, in line with expectation. EPS represented 46.8% of our current full-year estimate. The YoY decrease in net profit was mainly driven by relatively weak revenue growth, as well as higher effective tax rate. Increases in D&A, maintenance and labor costs were basically in line with capacity growth, while other operating expenses saw notable increase due to asset impairment provisions. We think that the underperformance of the Company's earnings in 1Q20 was partially affected by the COVID-19 outbreak; the Company may see subsequent recovery from incremental effects of new capacity. Yet given rising costs and further deterioration in the Company's profitability, we expect DTR's 2020 full-year EPS to merely record about 5.0%-10.0%, a mild increase on a YoY basis.  Maintain "Accumulate" rating while revise down TP to HK$0.85 for DTR. We have revised down DTR's 2020/ 2021/ 2022 EPS forecasts to RMB0.122/ RMB0.149/ RMB0.203, respectively. Looking ahead, the company's major operating expenses may continue to rise along with the expansion of installed capacity, but in general should remain under control. As the progress of some projects under construction has been affected by the COVID-19 outbreak, the company may need to record further impairment provisions, while the scale of which should not show a significant increase compared with that of 2019. The collection of renewable energy subsidies within 2020 is expected to be similar to that of 2019, yet the decrease in borrowing rate will likely keep net financial expenses at reasonable levels. The Company's valuation is still at a historical low, and we maintain our "Accumulate" rating for DTR. Current TP represents 6.3x/ 5.2x/ 3.8x 2020/ 2021/ 2022 PER.  大唐新能源2020年1季度母公司所有者应占净利润同比下滑9.0%至人民币4.8亿元，符合预期。每股净利占我们目前全年预测的46.8%。净利润的同比下跌主要是由于相对疲弱的收入增长，以及更高的有效税率。折旧摊销费用、维修保养成本和员工成本的增幅与装机增速基本一致，其他经营开支则是由于计提减值拨备而出现明显上升。我们认为公司2020年1季度业绩表现差强人意或部分受到新冠疫情爆发的影响，后续随着新增装机的增量效应显现，预计将有所回升。但考虑到成本端的增长以及公司盈利能力出现进一步下降，我们预计大唐新能源2020全年的每股盈利可能仅录得约5.0%-10.0%的同比温和增长。  维持大唐新能源“收集”的投资评级但将目标价下调至0.85港元。我们将大唐新能源2020/ 2021/ 2022年每股盈利预测分别下调至人民币0.122元/ 0.149元/ 0.203元。展望后续，公司的各项主要经营费用预计仍将随着装机容量的扩大而有所增长，但总体仍将处于可控范围之内。由于部分在建项目进度受到新冠疫情影响，公司可能需要继续计提减值拨备，但其规模相比2019年应不会出现大幅增长。公司2020年内可再生能源补贴的回收情况预期将与2019年相近，而融资成本的下降或使财务费用净额维持在合理水平。公司现时估值仍处于历史低位，我们维持对其“收集”评级。当前目标价相当于6.3倍/ 5.2倍/ 3.8倍的2020/ 2021/ 2022年市盈率。 [Table_Rank] Rating: Accumulate Maintained 评级： 收集 (维持) [Table_Price] 6-18m TP目标价: HK$0.85 Revised from 原目标价: HK$0.95 Share price 股价： HK$0.580 Stock performance 股价表现 [Table_QuotePic] [Table_PriceChange] Change in Share Price 股价变动 1 M 1个月 3 M 3个月 1 Y 1年 Abs. % 绝对变动 % 0.0 (21.6) (29.1) Rel. % to HS Index 相对恒指变动 % 1.1 (9.1) (10.7) Avg. share price(HK$) 平均股价（港元） 0.6 0.6 0.7 Sour ce: Blo omb er g, Guotai Junan International. [Table_Profit] Year End Turnover Net Profit EPS EPS PER BPS PBR DPS Yield ROE 年结 收入 股东净利 每股净利 每股净利变动 市盈率 每股净资产 市净率 每股股息 股息率 净资产收益率 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) (△%) (x) (RMB) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 2018A 8,319 1,209 0.150 78.7 3.4 1.690 0.3 0.020 3.9 10.2 2019A 8,325 936 0.113 (25.0) 4.6 1.522 0.3 0.030 5.8 8.0 2020F 8,770 1,024 0.122 8.3 4.3 2.164 0.2 0.024 4.6 7.6 2021F 9,863 1,230 0.149 21.6 3.6 2.288 0.2 0.030 5.6 7.6 2022F 10,982 1,623 0.203 36.4 2.6 2.461 0.2 0.041 7.7 9.4 [Table_BaseData] Shares in issue (m) 总股数 (m) 7,273.7 Major shareholder 大股东 China Datang Corp Ltd. 65.6% Market cap. (HK$ m) 市值 (HK$ m) 4,218.7 Free float (%) 自由流通比率(%) 34.4 3 month average vol. 3个月平均成交股数(‘000) 3,804.3 FY20 Net gearing (%) FY20净负债/股东资金 (%) 341.2 52 Weeks high/low (HK$) 52周高/低 0.900 / 0.480 FY20 Est. NAV (HK$) FY20每股估值（港元） 1.5 Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International. (50.0)(40.0)(30.0)(20.0)(10.0)0.010.020.0May-19Jul-19Sep-19Nov-19Jan-20Mar-20May-20% of returnHSI IndexDatang Renewable Company Report See the last page for disclaimer Page 2 of 8 [Table_RightMar1] 8 May 2020 [Table_RightMar2] Datang Renewable 大唐新能源 (01798 HK) [Table_PageHeader] Datang Renewable (01798 HK) Datang Renewable's ("DTR" or the "Company") 1Q20 net profit attributable to owners of the parent decreased 9.0% YoY to RMB480 mn, in line with expectation. 1Q20 revenue increased 5.1% YoY to RMB2.387 bn, mainly driven by capacity increase and improvement in wind curtailment rate. Total cost of goods sold for 1Q20