汽车行业周报：疫情对行业产生短期影响，看好特斯拉国产化带来的产业链机遇

规范、专业、创新 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明1 证券研究报告·个股深度报告 证券研究报告·个股报告 华鑫证券·行业周报 证券研究报告·行业报告 市场表现  上周行情回顾：上周沪深300下跌2.60%，汽车板下跌4%，涨幅位列申万一级行业第17，跑输沪深300指数1.40个百分点；其中，汽车整车板块下跌6.80%，汽车零部件板块下跌1.85%，汽车服务板块下跌8.62%  上市公司信息回顾：2019年中国汽车进口量微降2%；特斯拉引争议：远程禁用二手车的Autopilot功能，被要求付费；英国拟出台最严排放新规，2035年后只能销售纯电动车等。  本周行业观点：近期，受新冠肺炎疫情影响，我国春节假期延长，其中疫情核心区，同时也是我国汽车工业重要生产基地的湖北省复工时间将晚于国内其他省市。在此背景下，国内汽车行业短期内在供给和消费两端必然受到一定冲击。其中供给端的影响主要体现在产业链各环节的生产节奏无法及时恢复；而需求端的影响预计将主要来自疫情所带来的消费者购买行为受阻和可能由于疫情引起的宏观经济波动导致的消费者购买意愿减弱。我们认为，随着国家对于疫情防控力度的不断加码，供给端的影响将会在短期内逐步消除，产业链上各企业有望陆续实现复工生产，但疫情对消费端的影响或需更长时间才能逐步缓解。 行业消息层面，上周宁德时代宣布与特斯拉达成电池供应协议，供货期限从2020年7月1日起，为期2年。与此同时，特斯拉宣布上海工厂将于2月10日正式复产，上海市政府将对企业复产中遇到的困难和问题进行全力协调和帮助。我们认为，特斯拉与宁德时代的合作将进一步降低其整车成本，同时结合地方政府对特斯拉国产化项目的高度重视，特斯拉相关车型在国内的竞争力及市场表现将非常值得期待。随着特斯拉产能的逐步释放，其国产化带来的国内相关零部件产业链机遇将最具确定性，尤其在整车价值量中占比较高的动力电池、汽车电子及热管理等环节，涉及相关领域的核心标的和潜在供应商有望迎来全新成长空间。  投资建议：对于行业投资逻辑，尽管行业短期内受到疫情冲击，但我们相信在国家强有力举措的干预下，疫情发展有望得到快速控制，2020年我国汽车行业仍有望实现弱复苏。行业格局的进一步集中可能加速，具备技术、资金、研发、品牌等综合优势的龙头企业销量有望不断实现逆势增长。行业内整 指数/板块 过去一周涨跌幅（%） 过去一月涨跌幅（%） 年初至今涨跌幅（%） 上证综指 -3.38 -6.23 -5.71 深证成指 -0.66 -0.89 1.73 创业板指 4.57 8.22 12.11 沪深300 -2.60 -5.17 -4.80 汽车(申万) -4.00 -6.57 -2.10 汽车整车 -6.80 -6.43 -4.66 汽车零部件 -1.85 -6.23 -0.34 汽车服务 -8.62 -9.56 -5.40 指数表现（最近一年） -5.00%0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%30.00%35.00%汽车(申万)沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研发部 分析师：杨靖磊 执业证书编号：S1050518080001 电话：021-54967583 邮箱：yangjl@cfsc.com.cn 华鑫证券有限责任公司 地址：上海市徐汇区肇嘉浜路750号 邮编：200030 电话：（86 21）64339000 网址：http://www.cfsc.com.cn 2020年02月10日 汽车 疫情对行业产生短期影响，看好特斯拉国产化带来的产业链机遇 行业评级：中性 规范、专业、创新 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明2 证券研究报告·行业周报 合与重组或在所难免，结构性机会仍将是主要看点。从投资角度而言，建议始终从短期弹性、中长期价值成长和新兴增量空间三个角度出发关注相关投资机会。从短期弹性角度看，建议关注目前业绩及估值见底，且未来业绩大概率有望企稳回升的整车企业长安汽车、长城汽车。从中长期价值角度看，整车及零部件板块，依旧建议关注在合资及自主领域具备领先优势的整车及零部件企业长城汽车、华域汽车、星宇股份。从新兴增量空间角度看，特斯拉国产无疑为国内相关供应商提供了全新增量空间，相关供应链厂商订单弹性有望增大，因此建议关注现有特斯拉现有供应商三花智控、拓普集团，以及未来有望成为供应商的优质标的银轮股份。同时，随着汽车智能化、电动化的不断推进，具备整车厂Tier1资源和产品技术优势的车载电子龙头有望成为智能驾驶落地的入口，打开全新增长空间，因此建议重点关注座舱电子系统龙头德赛西威。  风险提示：汽车销量持续低迷导致车企盈利能力大幅下滑、宏观经济持续低迷、中美贸易摩擦不断升级等。 规范、专业、创新 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明3 证券研究报告·行业周报 目录 1. 本周观点及投资建议 ················································································································································· 4 2. 市场行情回顾 ···························································································································································· 4 2.1大盘波动，汽车板块跑输大盘 ········································································································································· 4 2.2汽车零部件板块表现较好，商用载客车板块跌幅大 ····································································································· 6 3. 行业及公司动态回顾 ················································································································································· 8 3.1传统整车及零部件领域 ····················································································································································· 8 3.2智能网联领域 ····································································································································································· 9 3.3汽车电动化领域 ······························································································································································· 10 4. 重点公司公告速览 ··················································································································································· 12 5. 行业重点数据跟踪 ··················································································································································· 13 5.1. 汽车产销数据跟踪 ························································································································································· 13 5.2. 商用车产销数据跟踪 ····················································································································································· 14 5.3. 新能源汽车产销数据跟踪 ············································································································································· 15 5.4行业库存情况跟踪 ··························································································································································· 17 5.5重点原材料价格数据走势跟踪 ······································································································································· 17 规范、专业、创新 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明4 证券研究报告·行业周报 1. 本周观点及投资建议 近期，受新冠肺炎疫情影响，我国春节假期延长，其中疫情核心区，同时也是我国汽车工业重要生产基地的湖北省复工时间将晚于国内其他省市。在此背景下，国内汽车行业短期内在供给和消费两端必然受到一定冲击。其中供给端的影响主要体现在产业链各环节的生产节奏无法及时恢复；而需求端的影响预计将主要来自疫情所带来的消费者购买行为受阻和可能由于疫情引起的宏观经济波动导致的消费者购买意愿减弱。我们认为，随着国家对于疫情防控力度的不断加码，供给端的影响将会在短期内逐步消除，产业链上各企业有望陆续实现复工生产，但疫情对消费端的影响或需更长时间才能逐步缓解。 行业消息层面，上周宁德时代宣布与特斯拉达成电池供应协议，供货期限从2020年7月1日起，为期2年。与此同时，特斯拉宣布上海工厂将于2月1