安东油田服务集团：未来增长将放缓

Please see important notice on the last page. 1 of 13 公司报告 安东油田服务集团 (03337.HK) 安东油田服务（“安东”或集团）公布2013年上半年业绩，其收益及纯利分别同比增长31.5%至10.57亿元（人民币，下同）及31.7%至1.64亿元。虽然表现仍算好，但相比为过去两年逾40%的同比增长，其上半年的收益增速并不耀眼。考虑到集团较高的估值，我们维持「中性」。 上半年收益增长放慢 于上半年，集团继续投放资源于国内市场的钻井提速及油井增产服务上。这引致海外销售占比下跌。除此之外，集团的定价能力受压，其各项服务的均价基本上均持平或略为下跌，特别是其多段压裂服务的平均价格由2012年的约300万元跌至约227万元。 息税及折旧前盈利率维持坚挺，惟毛利率受折旧开支拖累而下跌 由于高盈利率业务的增加，集团的营运效率得以改善，使息税及折旧前盈利率上升180点子至44.3%。然而，随著集团为扩阔其服务範畴而买入更多设备，折旧费用增加导致毛利率下跌。如果息税及折旧前盈利率持平的话，其毛利率很有机会因折旧增加而继续受压。 资本开支继续增速加快减低现金水平 营运现金流续有改善。然而，为把握天然气产量快速增长带来的机遇，集团增加设备采购金额一倍，抵销了营运现金流增加的影响。现金结馀由2012年12月底的5.23亿元减少至3.63亿元，于6月30日，净负债比率为15.7%。 估值 我们调整了2013年至2015年的盈利预测，并以2014年每股0. 2260元的盈利预测为定价基础，给予每股5.70港元的目标价（旧目标价为4.75港元）。「中性」。 盈利预测及估值 人民币百万元 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 营业额 1,259 2,005 2,665 3,309 4,139 同比增长(%) 32% 59% 33% 24% 25% 净利润 92 318 429 510 626 同比增长(%) -27% 247% 35% 19% 23% 每股盈利（元） 0.04 0.14 0.19 0.23 0.28 每股股息（元） 0.02 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.09 市盈率（X） 118.1 30.4 23.4 19.6 16.0 市净率（X） 5.2 4.4 3.5 2.9 2.9 ROE(%) 5% 15% 16% 15% 19% 资料来源：招商证券（香港）预测 中性 (上次：中性) 目标价：HK$ 5.70 现价：HK$5.63 招商证券(香港)研究部 郁明德 (852) 31896123 yukmt@cmschina.com.cn 2013年8月16日 基础数据 恒生指数 22,539.25 H股指数 10,206.74 总股数（百万股） 港股股数（百万股） 2,154.97 港股市值(港元百万) 12,132.50 每股净资产（港元） 0.95 主要股东 持股(％) Pro Development 32.34% 自由流通量 42.73% 行业 石油服务气 股价表现 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 17.0 33.4 308.0 相对恒指表现 11.3 37.3 295.1 -40%-20%0%20%40%60%Jan 13Feb 13Mar 13Apr 13May 13Jun 13Jul 13Aug 13%03337.HKHSI IndexSino Land (23.HK) Price 资料来源：彭博 相关报告 未来增长将放缓 Please see important notice on the last page. 2 of 13 Company Report Anton Oilfield Services (03337.HK) Anton Oilfield Service (03337.HK) reported 1H13 results with top-line growth of +31.5%YoY to RMB1,057mn and net profit growth of 31.7%YoY to RMB164mn. Although robust, first-half revenue growth was the slowest it’s been in over two years, when it had hovered above 40%YoY. Taking into account the stock’s rich valuation, we maintain “Neutral”. 1H13 revenue growth slows During 1H13, the company continued to allocate the bulk of its resources to providing drilling optimization and well stimulation services within the PRC market. This has led to a decline in overseas sales as a percentage of total revenue. Furthermore, the company is facing pricing pressure with flat to moderately lower ASP, particularly for its multi-stage fracking services, which saw ASP drop from approximately RMB3mn in FY12 to around RMB2.27mn during 1H13. EBITDA margins resilient but GPM lowered by D&A EBITDA margins remained resilient as the company increased operational efficiency with greater contribution from higher margin businesses leading to a 180bps increase to 44.3%. However, GPM declined due to the increase in D&A as the company procured new equipment to expand its service range. It’s likely that the increase in D&A will continue to put pressure on GPM if EBITDA margins are to remain flat. Capex continues to accelerate reducing cash pile Operating cash flow continues to improve. However, this improvement was offset by a doubling in PP&E purchases as the company tries to capitalize on China’s desire to boost natural gas output. Cash balance shrank to RMB363mn (vs. RMB523mn in FY12). Net gearing as of 30 June was 15.7%. Valuation We have fine tuned our assumptions for FY13-FY15 and rolled-over to our FY14 EPS of RMB0.2260/share to derive Anton’s new target price of HK$5.70/share (old TP: HK$4.75/share). “Neutral”. Financials RMBmn 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E Revenue 1,259 2,005 2,665 3,309 4,139 Growth(%) 32% 59% 33% 24% 25% Net profit 92 318 429 510 626 Growth(%) -27% 247% 35% 19% 23% EPS(RMB) 0.04 0.14 0.19 0.23 0.28 DPS(RMB) 0.02 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.09 P/E(x) 118.1 30.4 23.4 19.6 16.0 P/B(x) 5.2 4.4 3.5 2.9 2.9 ROE(%) 5% 15% 16% 15% 19% Source: Company data, CMS(HK) estimates Neutral (Previous: Neutral) Target Price：HK$ 5.70 Current Price HK$5.63 China Merchants Securities (HK) Michael Yuk (852) 31896123 yukmt@cmschina.com.cn 16 Aug 2013 Key data HSI Index 22,539.25 HSCEI Index 10,206.74 S/O (mn) 2,154.97 Mkt cap (HK$mn) (mn) 12,132.50 BVPS (HK$) 0.95 Major share holder Holding (％) Pro Development 32.34% Free float 42.73% Industry Oil Service Share performance % 1m 6m 12m Absolute return 17.0 33.4 308.0 Relative return 11.3 37.3 295.1 -40%-20%0%20%40%60%Jan 13Feb 13Mar 13Apr 13May 13Jun 13Jul 13Aug 13%03337.HKHSI IndexSino Land (23.HK) Price Source：Bloomberg Related research Slower growth ahead Please see important notice on the last page. 3 of 13 Company Report 1H13 earnings rundown Figure 1: Anton Oilfield Services – 1H13 results RMB ‘000 1H13 1H12 %YoY Comments Turnover 1,057,002 803,700 31.5% Drilling services remains the main growth driver for the company growing 50.9%YoY during 1H13 to RMB249.2mn. However, g