请务必阅读正文后的免责声明部分 埃索美拉唑及乌体林斯， 使其业绩弹性倍增 买入 ——莱美药业（300006）深度研究报告—— 内容摘要：  推荐公司核心逻辑。逻辑主要体现以下几点：国家推出“限抗政策”已两年有余，其对公司抗生素业务影响已得到充分释放，现逐步触底回升；湖南康源药业生产线新版GMP改造完成、同时其包材不断升级将大幅提高利润贡献；公司首仿埃索美拉唑即将获批，2014年将启动招标正式进入销售。乌体林斯为德国进口品种，其技术完全转移到国内、数十年疗效验证，年底其生产线通过新版GMP认证之后将实现再次上市销售。因此，埃索美拉唑及乌体林斯陆续上市，使公司业绩出现“无限遐想”。  埃索美拉唑、乌体林斯“双剑合璧”促使其业绩充满“遐想”。埃索美拉唑是公司自主研发产品，2010 年申报生产，2013 年4 月现场检查、10月份有望获得生产批件。其以首仿、独家角色申请单独定价，同时其与原研阿斯利康埃索美拉唑的差异性防止“一品双规”政策对开发终端的影响；首仿药埃索美拉唑拥有两年质检保护期将与阿斯利康充分分享质子泵抑制剂150亿巨量市场。乌体林斯（草分支杆菌）为德国进口品种，其疗效经历数年考验得到终端充分认可。由于该产品可在医院终端多科室推广（如结核病科、肿瘤科、皮肤科等），同时也可以向体弱多病老年人推广。因此，埃索美拉唑与乌体林斯使公司业绩充满无限“遐想”。  公司抗生素与大输液盈利能力好转、特色专科药增幅较快。受“限抗政策”影响，抗生素业务利空已充分释放逐步走出底部阴影；湖南康源生产线新版GMP认证完毕及随着大输液包材的升级，其盈利能力将不断提升；特色专科药中，尤其是淋巴细胞示踪剂通过营销方案改革增速大幅提升。  估值分析。预测：2013 年、2014 年、2015 年对应EPS 分别为0.40元、1.06元、1.49元（备注：股本没有考虑摊薄），对应PE 分别为56X、21X、15X。我们认为：14 年公司估值较低，给其30 倍PE 对应目标价约31.8 元。维持给予“买入”评级。 盈利预测（百万元） 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E 营业收入 631.46 823.49 2316.23 3193.61 增长率(%) 18.23% 30.41% 181.27% 37.88% 归属母公司股东净利润 53.71 74.01 193.87 272.17 增长率(%) -26.51% 37.79% 161.94% 40.39% 每股收益(EPS) 0.29 0.40 1.05 1.48 销售毛利率 39.95% 40.50% 41.00% 41.00% 市盈率(P/E) 69.56 56.43 21.53 15.33 市净率(P/B) 6.32 5.82 4.81 3.87 证券研究报告/医药行业 2013年7月31日 分析师 朱国广 执业证号：S1250513070001 电话：023-63812537 邮箱：zhugg@swsc.com.cn 股价走势 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 12-0712-0912-1113-0113-0313-05莱美药业医药生物(申万)(可比) 基础数据 总股本(亿股) 1.83 流通A股(亿股) 1.44 52周内股价区间(元) 14.07-25.13 总市值(亿元) 41.72 总资产(亿元) 19.55 每股净资产(元) 3.72 当前价（元） 22.80 深度研究报告/莱美药业300006 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明部分 正 文 目 录 1、公司概况 .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1 1.1 公司简介 ············································································································································································ 1 1.2股权结构 ············································································································································································· 1 1.3 经营状况 ············································································································································································ 1 1.3.1 产品结构 .......................................................................................................................................................... 1 1.3.2 营业收入及利润构成 ...................................................................................................................................... 2 2、公司加大研发投入，专科药重磅储备产品丰富 .................................................................................................................. 4 2.1 研发投入逐年加大 ···························································································································································· 4 2.2 战略储备品种丰富 ···························································································································································· 5 3、首仿埃索美拉唑即将获批，将分享大规模市场空间 .......................................................................................................... 6 3.1 消化系统疾病用药市场概况 ············································································································································ 6 3.2 国内外埃索美拉唑市场概况 ············································································································································ 8 3.2.1 埃索美拉唑疗效显著 ...................................................................................................................................... 9 3.2.2 埃索美拉唑中标价较高 ................................................................................................................................ 10 3.2.3 莱美药业的埃索获批，将与阿斯利康分享巨量市场 ................................................................................ 11 4、德国进口品种乌体林斯（草分支杆菌），有望创造销售奇葩........................................................................................... 12 4.1乌体林斯（草分枝杆菌）概况 ······································································································································· 13 4.1.1治疗肺结核，并提升免疫能力 ..................................................................................................................... 14 4.1.2增强支气管哮喘患儿免疫功能 ..................................................................................................................... 15 4.1.3联合治疗胰腺癌，增强免疫功能 ................................................................................................................. 15 4.2乌体林斯适应人群、科室广泛，终端需求巨大 ··········································································································· 16 5、抗感染类药物-伏立康唑增速较为理想 ............................................................................................................................... 17 5.1 抗真菌类药物市场 ·······················································