铜产品数据周报#######请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 / 26铜产品数据周报2013年7月1日近期沪铜连续3价格走势导读数据来源：文华财经、金瑞期货相关研究 《铜产品数据周报130607》 .............2013.06.07 《铜周报—铜价运行区间下移》 .............2013.06.17 《金瑞期货金属晴雨表20130617》 .............2013.06.17 金瑞期货研究所 研究员：叶羽钢 研究员：宋小浪 研究员：杨小光 研究员: 陈敏 研究员：谭远 研究员：郭皓 研究员：周挺 研究员：刘兰明 研究员：杨宏 联系人：马健飒 电话：0755-83679730 沪铜曾在2006年创下83800元/吨的历史高点，整个2013年上半年沪铜也只在一季度触及60670元/吨，6月底收盘仅为48580元。现在谈论告别高铜价还为时尚早，但是不可否认的是，随着供应增加以及需求放缓，铜价正面临考验。 沪伦比值方面， 沪铜主力合约与伦铜比值修复至7.2，周内精铜进口亏损扩大至700元/吨上下。在近期国内资金趋近，资金成本大幅攀升的背景下，国内企业对信用证采购进口铜报关进口需求度大幅度提升，此外银行对铜融资操作监管的趋严，也令单笔货源反复操作的难度增加，故整体市场可利用货源趋紧，进口铜现货升水攀升至170-200美元/吨。 废铜方面，上周国内市场电解铜成交均价在49352元/吨，较上上周下跌2484元/吨，含税光亮铜均价49925元/吨，较上周下跌2000元，含税光亮铜与电解铜价差扩大至-600-100元/吨。国外贸易商废铜报价普遍坚挺，惜售现象严重。 上海有色网数据方面，6月线缆平均开工率为89.46%，环比基本持平。电缆需求在电网项目、工程项目持续推进下，订单保持稳定。此外铁路用线等需求同比也出现较大增长。6月随着家电企业的走低，漆包线进入行业性淡季。 CFTC持仓方面，上周CFTC总持仓增加13646手至194877手，管理基金多头持仓增加6964手至47838手，管理基金空头持仓增加15356手至74277手，套利持仓减少903手至20421手，市场空头氛围加剧。 中国的电力投资依然是我们维持铜增长的保障，但是从6月开始，包括家电和汽车生产、电子和地产建筑都步入了年内的缓和期，这意味着中国的用铜节奏和强度都有所回落。但是精炼铜的生产弹性较小，再加上进口到港的精炼铜还会增长，我们预期中国国内的供应会由前期的偏紧转为小幅度的宽松。外围方面，随着Grasberg铜矿逐步复产，印度的冶炼厂也重启顺利，精炼铜的产量有所恢复。然而外围现货铜贴水的局面很难改变，这会导致精炼铜的交割意愿居高不下。总的来看，外围市场的铜库存依然会维持在60万吨上方，对铜价的压力难以去除。 47000 49000 51000 53000 55000 57000 59000 61000 周报导读····························1重点宏观数据·························5供需平衡数据·························6终端消费行业数据·························10下游加工企业开工率······················14期货价格数据·························16现货价格数据·························19交易所数据··························22其它相关数据··························25联系方式及其它························26图1 美元指数··································5图2 股票相关指数································5图3 金属相关指数································5图4 其它相关指数································5图5 精炼铜全球供需平衡····························7图6 国内生产量···································7图7 进口量···································7图8 出口量···································7图9 相关进口··································7图10 净进口···································7图11 产量增长率································8图12 进口增长率································8图13 表观消费量································8图14 表观消费量增长率·····························8图15 全球精炼铜库存量·····························8图16 交易所库存情况································8图17 LME分库存································9图18 LME库存和注销仓单····························9图19 上海交易所铜库存·····························9请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分铜产品数据周报2013年7月1日 铜产品数据周报目录2 / 26图表目录 图20 汽车行业生产量·······························11图21 汽车行业销售量·······························11图22 汽车行业生产量增长率···························11图23 汽车行业销售量增长率···························11图24 房地产相关指数······························11图25 房地产销售面积、销售额··························11图26 房地产投资额、施工面积··························12图27 房地产开工、竣工面积···························12图28 彩电、空调、冰箱产量···························12图29 洗衣机、冷柜产量·····························12图30 电力发电相关·······························12图31 集成电路·································12图32 电力开关·································13图33 电力电线·································13图34 彩电、空调、冰箱产量增长率························13图35 电力相关增长率······························13图36 电力电线增长率增长率···························13图37 铜线杆企业开工率·····························15图38 铜冶炼厂开工率······························15图39 电线电缆企业开工率····························15图40 铜板带箔企业开工率····························15图41 铜管企业开工率······························15图42 LME三月与升贴水·····························17图43 LME期货价格································17图44 LME三月交易情况·····························17图45 沪铜C3交易情况······························17图46 沪铜期货价差·······························17图47 现货与（C0-C1）·····························17图48 现货与（C1-C2）······························18图49 现货与（C2-C3）·····························18图50 现货与（C3-C4）·····························18图51 长江现货价格·······························20图52 上海现货VS广东现货····························20图53 广东废铜（1#光亮线与现货铜）扣减比例···················20图54 广东废铜（[94-95%]2#铜与现货铜）扣减比例·················20图55 广东废铜（1#光亮线与期货）扣减比例····················20图56 广东废铜（[92-93%]2#铜与现货铜）扣减比例·················20图57 广东废铜（[94-95%]2#铜与期货）扣减比例··················21图58 广东废铜（[92-93%]2#铜与期货）扣减比例··················21图59 广东废铜价格（65黄铜边料、破碎黄铜Fe）··················21图60 广东废铜价格（国标低氧杆8mm、国标无氧杆8mm）···············21图61 国际废旧金属到岸价····························21图62 现货进口盈亏································21图63 上期所交易情况······························23图64 大商所交易情况······························23请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分2013年7月1日3 / 26铜产品数据周报 图65 郑交所交易情况······························23图66 铜期货交易情况······························23图67 铜期货持仓情况······························23图68 铝期货交易情况······························23图69 铝期货持仓情况······························24图70 锌期货交易数据······························24图71 锌持仓数据································24图72 CFTC可报告持仓······························24图73 CFTC商业持仓·······························24图74 CFTC管理基金持仓·····························24图75 硫酸出厂价································25图76 发电量····································2