银河证券2013年宏观月报第4期：经济运行稳中偏弱

www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份公司免责声明 Macroeconomic 16th June 2013 Research Report Economic Performance Stable but Weak -- 2013 Macroeconomic Monthly Report No.4 Main Points： l Current macro-economic growth shows a steady trend, but the growth momentum remains weak. In May, industrial production and fixed asset investment growth fell slightly, and consumer retail growth has rebounded slightly. Export growth fell sharply and will return to normal growth. If the June data do not exceed expectations, we expect that the Q2 GDP growth may maintain the same level as in the Q1 or slightly lower around 7.6%. MoM growth rate of economy in the second half year should be narrowed and the GDP in Q4 will fall to 7.5% or even lower level; the annual economic growth rate is between 7.5%-8.0%. l We insist that, with regard to economic growth in the future, to accept a lower growth rate is a sensible and realistic option. This is because the potential growth rate of China’s economy has already decreased. In a situation of transfer mode, adjusting structure and promoting the process of upgrading, economy growth slowing down is inevitable. Response to the current economic development situation, the road of reform must be addressed. To allow moderately slow growth, foster new economic growth momentum, reform institutional and economic growth and enhance efficiency, optimization, upgrading and innovation, an upgraded version of the Chinese economy will be built. l From the price, CPI YoY growth rate is 2.1% in May, increasing 0.6% than last month, exceeding market expectations. It is expected that the CPI will be lower in the Q2 than Q1. At the same time, the upstream industrial prices accelerate the decline, and a YoY PPI fell 2.9% and the producer price PPIRM decline of 3.0% in May which show that under situation of reducing production capacity and inventory, the profitability of manufacturing sector will be tested. l From the aspect of macroeconomic policy, fiscal policy is to implementation of the structural tax cuts, and in order to prevent the risk of local debt, the central government on behalf of local governments to issue bonds will enter a substantive stage. From the monetary policy, it is expect that monetary policy steady tightenting of credit is a high probability event. Non-credit financing will play an important role. Overall, The focus of macroeconomic policy in the future is likely to the medium- and long-term system design and related reforms rather than short-term counter-cyclical policies. The economic policy will be focused on solving China’s economic growth momentum and long-term problems Chief Economist Analyst： Xinfa Zhang (：（8610）6656 8535 *：zhangxinfa@chinastock.com.cn Certificate ：S0130511020002 Xiangdong Pan (：（8610）8357 4197 *：panxiangdong@chinastock.com.cn Certificate No.：S0130511120003 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份公司免责声明 宏观研究报告 2013年6月16日 经济运行稳中偏弱 ——2013年宏观月报第4期 核心要点： l 目前宏观经济运行呈现平稳态势，但增长动力依然偏弱。5月份工业生产和固定资产投资增幅略有回落，消费零售增幅有小幅回升。进出口增速大幅下滑，之前虚高的水分被挤出，今后将回归常态增长。如果6月份数据不出现大的意外，我们预计二季度GDP增速基本与一季度基本持平或略有降低，大概为7.6%左右。下半年经济增速环比增幅应该会收窄，四季度GDP将会回落至7.5%甚至是略低一些的水平，全年经济增速介于7.5%-8%之间。 l 我们坚持认为，关于经济增长，今后接受较低一些的增速是明智和现实的选择。这是因为，目前中国经济的潜在增速已然下降，在转方式、调结构、促升级的过程中，速度放缓在所难免。应对当下经济发展局面，必须以改革之道加以解决，允许适度低速增长，通过制度和经济改革培育新的经济增长动力，通过提升效率、优化升级以及不断创新来打造中国经济的升级版。 l 物价方面，5月份CPI同比涨幅为2.1%，环比下降0.6%，超出市场预期，预计二季度会略低于一季度。与此同时，上游工业品价格继续加速下跌，5月份工业生产者出厂价格PPI同比下降2.9%，工业生产者购进价格PPIRM下降3.0%，表明在去产能、去库存情况下制造业的生产和盈利情况还将经受考验。 l 宏观政策方面，积极的财政政策除了落实结构性减税之外，为防范地方债务风险，中央代地方发行政府债券将进入实质性阶段。货币政策方面，预计未来货币信贷稳中趋紧是大概率事件，非信贷融资将扮演重要角色。整体上看，今后宏观政策的着重点很可能从短期的反周期政策回到中长期的制度设计和相关改革上来，重点解决中国经济的中长期增长动力问题。 首席经济学家 分析师： 张新法 (：（8610）6656 8535 *：zhangxinfa@chinastock.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0130511020002 潘向东 (：（8610）8357 4197 *：panxiangdong@chinastock.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0130511120003 宏观研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份公司免责声明。 目 录 一、经济增长稳中偏弱 ...................................................................................................................................................... 1 （一）工业生产增速低位稳定 ....................................................................................................................................................1 （二）消费零售稳中略升 ............................................................................................................................................................2 （三）出口将回归个位数常态增长 ............................................................................................................................................4 （四）二季度固定投资增长稳定 ................................................................................................................................................6 二、接受较低一些的经济增速是现实和明智选择 .......................................................................................................... 9 三、二季度物价上涨压力不大 ...................................................................................