金瑞期货铜产品数据周报

铜产品数据周报#####请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 铜产品数据周报2013年6月3日近期沪铜连续3价格走势导读数据来源：文华财经、金瑞期货1 / 26相关研究 《铜产品数据周报130527》 .............2013.05.20 《铜周报—铜价维持箱体震荡格局》 .............2013.05.27 《金瑞期货金属晴雨表20130527》 .............2013.05.27 金瑞期货研究所 研究员：叶羽钢 研究员：宋小浪 研究员：杨小光 研究员: 陈敏 研究员：谭远 研究员：郭皓 研究员：周挺 研究员：刘兰明 研究员：杨宏 联系人：马健飒 电话：0755-83679730 近期铜价总体围绕7100-7500美元的区间震荡，尽管铜受到金融属性波动的影响，但是铜背后的基本面仍然是关注的根本。对于伦敦市场而言，我们预计后期LME铜库存仍有进一步走低的可能，伦铜有望震荡偏强。 沪伦比值方面， 沪铜主力合约与伦铜比值修复至7.2，周内精铜进口亏损继续运行在300元/吨上下。沪伦比值持续运行于进口盈利平衡一线，令报关进口需求持续上升，支撑周内到岸升贴水在120-145美元/吨。对于外管局20号文，市场等待进入6月后外管或银行的进一步解读，但普遍预期市场整体信用证可开额度将出现缩减。 废铜方面，上周国内市场电解铜成交均价在53485元/吨，较上上周下跌289元/吨，含税光亮铜均价530730元/吨，较上周跌260元，含税光亮铜与电解铜价差持平，保持在400～700元/吨。国外贸易商废铜报价普遍坚挺，惜售现象严重。 上海有色网数据方面，5月线缆企业平均开工率为84.7%，环比增加3.2%。其中开工率最好的依然为大型企业，5月环比增加2.4%。中型线缆企业5月开工率也有5.6%的增幅，但小型企业仅有0.85%的好转，表明市场呈现一定的分化。年内工程项目有所增加，轨交电缆、海缆、新能源汽车充电配套等新增需求出现上升。 CFTC持仓方面，上周CFTC总持仓减少6270手至166042手，管理基金多头持仓减少445手至39525手，管理基金空头持仓减少4358手至53067手，套利持仓增加337手至16051手，市场空头氛围加剧。 中国国内的消费购买力仍然不错，但是沪铜并没有摆脱区间震荡的格局，主要的原因还是在于LME高库存的压制，沪铜受到伦铜的牵制作用较为明显。后期随着LME铜库存的释放窗口打开，压在外围铜市场的基本面因素将会得到缓解。对于伦铜基本面的改善，我们需要关注国内现货升贴水的表现情况，长江现货有可能进一步出现回落。最后回归到铜价本身，我们认为伦铜仍有望冲击7500美元，沪铜出现跟涨的可能性大，继续关注买伦铜抛沪铜的套利机会。 47000 49000 51000 53000 55000 57000 59000 61000 周报导读····························1重点宏观数据·························5供需平衡数据·························6终端消费行业数据·························10下游加工企业开工率······················14期货价格数据·························16现货价格数据·························19交易所数据··························22其它相关数据··························25联系方式及其它························26图1 美元指数··································5图2 股票相关指数································5图3 金属相关指数································5图4 其它相关指数································5图5 精炼铜全球供需平衡····························7图6 国内生产量···································7图7 进口量···································7图8 出口量···································7图9 相关进口··································7图10 净进口···································7图11 产量增长率································8图12 进口增长率································8图13 表观消费量································8图14 表观消费量增长率·····························8图15 全球精炼铜库存量·····························8图16 交易所库存情况································8图17 LME分库存································9图18 LME库存和注销仓单····························9图19 上海交易所铜库存·····························9请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分图表目录2 / 26铜产品数据周报2013年6月3日 铜产品数据周报目录 图20 汽车行业生产量·······························11图21 汽车行业销售量·······························11图22 汽车行业生产量增长率···························11图23 汽车行业销售量增长率···························11图24 房地产相关指数······························11图25 房地产销售面积、销售额··························11图26 房地产投资额、施工面积··························12图27 房地产开工、竣工面积···························12图28 彩电、空调、冰箱产量···························12图29 洗衣机、冷柜产量·····························12图30 电力发电相关·······························12图31 集成电路·································12图32 电力开关·································13图33 电力电线·································13图34 彩电、空调、冰箱产量增长率························13图35 电力相关增长率······························13图36 电力电线增长率增长率···························13图37 铜线杆企业开工率·····························15图38 铜冶炼厂开工率······························15图39 电线电缆企业开工率····························15图40 铜板带箔企业开工率····························15图41 铜管企业开工率······························15图42 LME三月与升贴水·····························17图43 LME期货价格································17图44 LME三月交易情况·····························17图45 沪铜C3交易情况······························17图46 沪铜期货价差·······························17图47 现货与（C0-C1）·····························17图48 现货与（C1-C2）······························18图49 现货与（C2-C3）·····························18图50 现货与（C3-C4）·····························18图51 长江现货价格·······························20图52 上海现货VS广东现货····························20图53 广东废铜（1#光亮线与现货铜）扣减比例···················20图54 广东废铜（[94-95%]2#铜与现货铜）扣减比例·················20图55 广东废铜（1#光亮线与期货）扣减比例····················20图56 广东废铜（[92-93%]2#铜与现货铜）扣减比例·················20图57 广东废铜（[94-95%]2#铜与期货）扣减比例··················21图58 广东废铜（[92-93%]2#铜与期货）扣减比例··················21图59 广东废铜价格（65黄铜边料、破碎黄铜Fe）··················21图60 广东废铜价格（国标低氧杆8mm、国标无氧杆8mm）···············21图61 国际废旧金属到岸价····························21图62 现货进口盈亏································21图63 上期所交易情况······························23图64 大商所交易情况······························23请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分3 / 26铜产品数据周报2013年6月3日 图65 郑交所交易情况······························23图66 铜期货交易情况······························23图67 铜期货持仓情况······························23图68 铝期货交易情况······························23图69 铝期货持仓情况······························24图70 锌期货交易数据······························24图71 锌持仓数据································24图72 CFTC可报告持仓······························24图73 CFTC商业持仓·······························24图74 CFTC管理基金持仓·····························24图75 硫酸出厂价································25图76 发电量····································25图77 主要货币中