金瑞期货铜产品数据周报

研究所——金属研究小组陈帝喜叶羽钢0755-830058620755-83005884chendx@jrqh.com.cnyeyg@jrqh.com.cn柴 静杨小光0755-830058190755-83002743chaij@jrqh.com.cnyangxg@jrqh.com.cn陈 敏葛 杰0755-837580120755-83550548chenmin@jrqh.com.cngejie@jrqh.com.cn请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 近期沪铜连续3价格走势 2月18日至2月22日当周，铜价大幅下挫，伦铜报收于7817美元/吨，创下一年多来单周最大跌幅，沪铜报收于57720元/吨，价格下跌主要受到春节假期结束后中国需求回升幅度不及预期、LME铜库存持续攀升、美联储政策提前退出预期增强以及近期部分宏观经济数据难达到前期的乐观预期拖累。 沪伦铜比值方面，沪铜主力合约与伦铜比值从7.23附近回升至7.28附近，进口亏损收窄至1200元/吨左右，因春节假期国内停止交易，市场出货量有所增加，压制现货到岸升水，现货进口铜到岸升水主流成交小幅下降至45-65美元/吨。 废铜方面，国内市场电解铜成交均价在58256元/吨，较年前下跌588元/吨，含税光亮铜均价57124元/吨，下跌562元/吨，价差收窄至800-1200元/吨左右。春节过后，大部分废铜贸易商、拆解商及回收商暂未返回市场，需求低于预期，下游加工企业要到元宵节后才逐渐复工，废铜市场交投清淡。 易贸数据方面，1月铜冶炼企业开工率环比下降5.18%至87.68%，因春节消费淡季临近，部分铜冶炼企业在年末冲量后，适当放缓生产节奏。1月冶炼企业库存天数为4.4天，环比12月的4.1天略有增加。因开工率下降导致出货压力减小，加上多数冶炼企业看好后期铜价走势，出货积极性不高，导致库存增加。 CFTC持仓方面，上周CFTC总持仓增加3931手至178372手，管理基金多头持仓减少6955手至44784手，管理基金空头持仓增加4730手至33371手，净多头持仓减少11685手至11413手，市场看空情绪抬头。 综合来看，中美经济总体呈现企稳态势为铜价提供一定的支撑。预计本周铜价在经过前期的风险释放之后进入弱势振荡的可能性较大，伦铜关注7800美元一线的支撑，关注7950美元一线的阻力，对应沪铜的支撑位为57000元，阻力位为58000元一线。铜产品数据周报2012-2-25星期一导读1 / 26数据来源：文华财经、金瑞期货45000 50000 55000 60000 65000 70000 75000 2010-1 2010-2 2010-3 2010-4 2010-5 2010-6 2010-7 2010-8 2010-9 2010-10 2010-11 2010-12 2011-1 2011-2 2011-3 2011-4 2011-5 2011-6 2011-7 2011-8 2011-9 2011-10 2011-11 2011-12 2012-1 2012-2 2012-3 2012-4 2012-5 2012-6 2012-7 2012-8 2012-9 2012-10 2012-11 2012-12 2013-1 2013-2 周报导读····························1重点宏观数据·························5供需平衡数据·························6终端消费行业数据·························10下游加工企业开工率······················14期货价格数据·························16现货价格数据·························19交易所数据··························22其它相关数据··························25联系方式及其它························26图1 美元指数··································5图2 股票相关指数································5图3 金属相关指数································5图4 其它相关指数································5图5 精炼铜全球供需平衡····························7图6 国内生产量···································7图7 进口量···································7图8 出口量···································7图9 相关进口··································7图10 净进口···································7图11 产量增长率································8图12 进口增长率································8图13 表观消费量································8图14 表观消费量增长率·····························8图15 全球精炼铜库存量·····························8图16 交易所库存情况································8图17 LME分库存································9图18 LME库存和注销仓单····························9图19 上海交易所铜库存·····························9请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分图表目录2 / 262012-2-25星期一 铜产品数据周报目录铜产品数据周报 图20 汽车行业生产量·······························11图21 汽车行业销售量·······························11图22 汽车行业生产量增长率···························11图23 汽车行业销售量增长率···························11图24 房地产相关指数······························11图25 房地产销售面积、销售额··························11图26 房地产投资额、施工面积··························12图27 房地产开工、竣工面积···························12图28 彩电、空调、冰箱产量···························12图29 洗衣机、冷柜产量·····························12图30 电力发电相关·······························12图31 集成电路·································12图32 电力开关·································13图33 电力电线·································13图34 彩电、空调、冰箱产量增长率························13图35 电力相关增长率······························13图36 电力电线增长率增长率···························13图37 铜线杆企业开工率·····························15图38 铜冶炼厂开工率······························15图39 电线电缆企业开工率····························15图40 铜板带箔企业开工率····························15图41 铜管企业开工率······························15图42 LME三月与升贴水·····························17图43 LME期货价格································17图44 LME三月交易情况·····························17图45 沪铜C3交易情况······························17图46 沪铜期货价差·······························17图47 现货与（C0-C1）·····························17图48 现货与（C1-C2）······························18图49 现货与（C2-C3）·····························18图50 现货与（C3-C4）·····························18图51 长江现货价格·······························20图52 上海现货VS广东现货····························20图53 广东废铜（1#光亮线与现货铜）扣减比例···················20图54 广东废铜（[94-95%]2#铜与现货铜）扣减比例·················20图55 广东废铜（1#光亮线与期货）扣减比例····················20图56 广东废铜（[92-93%]2#铜与现货铜）扣减比例·················20图57 广东废铜（[94-95%]2#铜与期货）扣减比例··················21图58 广东废铜（[92-93%]2#铜与期货）扣减比例··················21图59 广东废铜价格（65黄铜边料、破碎黄铜Fe）··················21图60 广东废铜价格（国标低氧杆8mm、国标无氧杆8mm）···············21图61 国际废旧金属到岸价····························21图62 现货进口盈亏································21图63 上期所交易情况······························23图64 大商所交易情况······························23请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分2012-2-25星期一3 / 26铜产品数据周报 图65 郑交所交易情况······························23图66 铜期货交易情况······························23图67 铜期货持仓情况······························23图68 铝期货交易情况······························23图69 铝期货持仓情况······························24图70 锌期货交易数据······························24图71 锌持仓数据································24图72 CFTC可报告持仓······························24图73 CFTC商业持仓·······························