金瑞期货铜产品数据周报

研究所——金属研究小组陈帝喜叶羽钢0755-830058620755-83005884chendx@jrqh.com.cnyeyg@jrqh.com.cn柴 静杨小光0755-830058190755-83002743chaij@jrqh.com.cnyangxg@jrqh.com.cn陈 敏葛 杰0755-837580120755-83550548chenmin@jrqh.com.cngejie@jrqh.com.cn请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 数据来源：文华财经、金瑞期货铜产品数据周报2013-2-18星期一导读1 / 26近期沪铜连续3价格走势 春节假期期间（2月11日至2月15日）伦铜窄幅波动，收盘价格较前一周小幅下跌35.75美元，报收于8240美元／吨，价格下跌主要受到欧元区经济数据疲软、贵金属价格下挫以及亚洲农历新年假期拖累，而对中美两国经济成长前景改善的乐观预期则对铜价形成一定的支撑。 沪伦铜比值方面，节前一周沪铜主力合约与伦铜比值在7.23附近小幅波动，进口亏损维持在2000元/吨上方，现货进口铜到岸升水主流成交在45-75美元/吨，临近春节假期，进口铜市场成交平淡。 废铜方面， 节前一周国内市场电解铜成交均价在58844元/吨，含税光亮铜均价57686元/吨，价差小幅走高至1000-1200元/吨左右。大部分废铜贸易商、拆解商及回收商均已停工休假，废铜供应货源不足。下游买家停工也增多，市场交投双方逐渐淡出，成交清淡。 易贸数据方面，1月铜杆线企业开工率为71.97%，较12月71.45%基本持平。因春节临近，部分下游消费企业陆续放假，多数企业按计划生产，平稳过渡为主。另有部分企业对节后消费较为乐观，加快生产进度，以备节后正常发货使用。1月铜杆线企业原料库存比为15.3%，成品库存比为13.75%，环比分别增长1.18%和4.3%，因部分企业对铜价后市看好，在资金紧张状况有所缓解的情况下，适当增加原料库存量。 CFTC持仓方面，上周CFTC总持仓较节前增加5948手至174441手，管理基金多头持仓较节前增加6726手至51739手，管理基金空头持仓较节前减少1924手至28641手，净多头持仓较节前增加8650手至23098手，市场多头情绪显著上升。 综合来看,节后中国需求的改善程度、贵金属价格能否企稳以及新的经济数据能否持续符合预期成为影响铜价的重要因素，我们预计铜价下行风险有所加大，伦铜将再次测试8150美元一线支撑，重要阻力位在8250美元至8300美元区间；沪铜将再次测试59000元一线的支撑，60000至60500元区间构成重要阻力。45000 50000 55000 60000 65000 70000 75000 2010-1 2010-2 2010-3 2010-4 2010-5 2010-6 2010-7 2010-8 2010-9 2010-10 2010-11 2010-12 2011-1 2011-2 2011-3 2011-4 2011-5 2011-6 2011-7 2011-8 2011-9 2011-10 2011-11 2011-12 2012-1 2012-2 2012-3 2012-4 2012-5 2012-6 2012-7 2012-8 2012-9 2012-10 2012-11 2012-12 2013-1 2013-2 周报导读····························1重点宏观数据·························5供需平衡数据·························6终端消费行业数据·························10下游加工企业开工率······················14期货价格数据·························16现货价格数据·························19交易所数据··························22其它相关数据··························25联系方式及其它························26图1 美元指数··································5图2 股票相关指数································5图3 金属相关指数································5图4 其它相关指数································5图5 精炼铜全球供需平衡····························7图6 国内生产量···································7图7 进口量···································7图8 出口量···································7图9 相关进口··································7图10 净进口···································7图11 产量增长率································8图12 进口增长率································8图13 表观消费量································8图14 表观消费量增长率·····························8图15 全球精炼铜库存量·····························8图16 交易所库存情况································8图17 LME分库存································9图18 LME库存和注销仓单····························9图19 上海交易所铜库存·····························9请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分铜产品数据周报2013-2-18星期一 铜产品数据周报目录2 / 26图表目录 图20 汽车行业生产量·······························11图21 汽车行业销售量·······························11图22 汽车行业生产量增长率···························11图23 汽车行业销售量增长率···························11图24 房地产相关指数······························11图25 房地产销售面积、销售额··························11图26 房地产投资额、施工面积··························12图27 房地产开工、竣工面积···························12图28 彩电、空调、冰箱产量···························12图29 洗衣机、冷柜产量·····························12图30 电力发电相关·······························12图31 集成电路·································12图32 电力开关·································13图33 电力电线·································13图34 彩电、空调、冰箱产量增长率························13图35 电力相关增长率······························13图36 电力电线增长率增长率···························13图37 铜线杆企业开工率·····························15图38 铜冶炼厂开工率······························15图39 电线电缆企业开工率····························15图40 铜板带箔企业开工率····························15图41 铜管企业开工率······························15图42 LME三月与升贴水·····························17图43 LME期货价格································17图44 LME三月交易情况·····························17图45 沪铜C3交易情况······························17图46 沪铜期货价差·······························17图47 现货与（C0-C1）·····························17图48 现货与（C1-C2）······························18图49 现货与（C2-C3）·····························18图50 现货与（C3-C4）·····························18图51 长江现货价格·······························20图52 上海现货VS广东现货····························20图53 广东废铜（1#光亮线与现货铜）扣减比例···················20图54 广东废铜（[94-95%]2#铜与现货铜）扣减比例·················20图55 广东废铜（1#光亮线与期货）扣减比例····················20图56 广东废铜（[92-93%]2#铜与现货铜）扣减比例·················20图57 广东废铜（[94-95%]2#铜与期货）扣减比例··················21图58 广东废铜（[92-93%]2#铜与期货）扣减比例··················21图59 广东废铜价格（65黄铜边料、破碎黄铜Fe）··················21图60 广东废铜价格（国标低氧杆8mm、国标无氧杆8mm）···············21图61 国际废旧金属到岸价····························21图62 现货进口盈亏································21图63 上期所交易情况······························23图64 大商所交易情况······························23请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分3 / 26铜产品数据周报2013-2-18星期一 图65 郑交所交易情况······························23图66 铜期货交易情况······························23图67 铜期货持仓情况······························23图68 铝期货交易情况······························23图69 铝期货持仓情况······························24图70 锌期货交易数据······························24图71 锌持仓数据································24图72 CFTC可报告持仓··························