中国城市轨道科技(08240)：13财年上半年业绩初评

201327 (8240 HK) 0.88 1.30 () 704 3 () 1.48 52/ () 1.02/0.58 () 800 (60.2%) : 1 -3.3% -3.0% 3 -7.4% -14.1% 6 27.5% 10.0% : : 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 May 12Aug 12Nov 12HK$8240 HK, HK$0.88, HK$1.30, - 13  13    1371.236.418.9234221.812  (630) FY11A FY12A FY13E FY14E FY15E () 72,047 190,240 257,353 315,520 335,660 () 40,470 80,715 103,776 130,940 143,405 () 0.084 0.129 0.130 0.164 0.179 (%) NA 53.9 0.2 26.2 9.5 (x) 10.5 6.8 6.8 5.4 4.9 (x) 10.3 1.6 1.7 1.3 1.1 (%) 0.0 3.6 3.7 4.6 5.1 (%) 98.8 23.8 24.5 24.8 24.5 (%) : 2 利润表6月30日 (港币 '000)FY11AFY12AFY13EFY14EFY15E收入72,047190,240257,353315,520335,660设计及实施应用解决方案服务37,62749,90996,400112,917110,220维护应用解决方案服务31,59529,10434,09541,87351,209销售软件070,68079,26793,385109,538销售硬件及备件2,82540,54747,59167,34464,693销售成本(27,244)(56,403)(87,128)(105,506)(109,351)44,803133,837170,224210,014226,309销售及管理费用(12,384)(29,735)(38,603)(45,119)(46,992)其他营运收入/费用1227374548息税前收益32,431104,129131,658164,940179,364息税及折旧摊销前收益32,903104,835132,674166,317181,157其他非营运收入/费用13,389(4,899)(6,627)(8,125)(8,644)45,82099,230125,031156,814170,720(5,350)(18,515)(21,255)(25,874)(27,315)40,47080,715103,776130,940143,405来源：公司资料，招银国际则预测资产负债表6月30日 (港币 '000)FY11AFY12AFY13EFY14EFY15E非流动资产19,73666,37389,442109,399116,069物业、厂房及设备1,0931,5021,6861,8081,611其他18,64364,87187,756107,591114,45966,385398,208437,760522,719631,080现金及现金等价物33,021203,196347,943444,622570,149已抵押银行存款00000存货6851,5542,3872,8912,996应收贸易款项32,679193,45887,42975,20657,936其他0000045,165124,767103,612103,302107,664借债00000应付贸易账款44,971106,05378,29672,26474,898其他19418,71425,31631,03832,76600000借债00000其他00000少数股东权益00000净资产总值40,956339,814423,590528,815639,486股东权益40,956339,814423,590528,815639,486来源：公司资料，招银国际则预测 3 现金流量表6月30日 (港币 '000)FY11AFY12AFY13EFY14EFY15E净利润40,47080,715103,776130,940143,405折旧和摊销4727061,0161,3781,793营运资金变动(9,973)(131,093)84,04011,41021,527其他(8,416)34,486000经营活动所得现金净额22,553(15,186)188,832143,728166,725购置固定资产(225)(1,869)(1,200)(1,500)(1,596)其他1816(22,885)(19,835)(6,868)投资活动所得现金净额(207)(1,853)(24,085)(21,335)(8,463)股本的变化4,685197,353000银行贷款变动00000其他0(10,246)(20,000)(25,714)(32,735)融资活动所得现金净额4,685187,107(20,000)(25,714)(32,735)现金增加净额27,031170,068144,74796,679125,527年初现金及现金等价物5,81233,021203,196347,943444,622外汇差额178107000年末现金及现金等价物33,021203,196347,943444,622570,149来源：公司资料，招银国际则预测6月30日FY11AFY12AFY13EFY14EFY15E销售组合 (%)设计及实施应用解决方案服务52.226.237.535.832.8维护应用解决方案服务43.915.313.213.315.3销售软件0.037.230.829.632.6销售硬件及备件3.921.318.521.319.3总和100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0盈利能力比率 (%)毛利率62.270.466.166.667.4息税及折旧摊销前收益率45.755.151.652.754.0营业利润率45.054.751.252.353.4净利润率56.242.440.341.542.7有效税率11.718.717.016.516.0增长 (%)收入增长19516435236毛利增长27219927238息税前收益增长38822126259净利润增长71899292610资产负债比率 (x)1.53.24.25.15.9 (x)1.53.24.25.05.8平均应收账款周转天数1663711248763平均存货周转天数910101010平均应付账款周转天数602686328250250现金周期(428)(305)(194)(153)(177)/ (%)(81) (60) (82) (84) (89) (%)资本回报率98.823.824.524.824.5资产回报率20.847.017.419.720.7每股数据 (港币)每股利润0.0840.1290.1300.1640.179每股账面值0.0850.5450.5290.6610.799每股股息0.0000.0320.0320.0410.045来源：公司资料，招银国际则预测 4 12 1302334 : 1215% : 12-15%+15% : 1215% : : 12181803-04 : (852) 3900 0888 : (852) 3900 0800 () () // / 1986()()(2)11(3)1995 193415a-6