中国石油化工股份：新股配售铺收购之路

Please see important notice on the last page. 1 of 6 公司报告 中国石油化工股份 (00386.HK) 中石化公布(“公司”或“集团”)，集团将配售超过28亿股新股予10位未公开的投资者，共筹集约240亿港元，是集团自2000年上市以来的首次配售新股，这次配售或将铺平集团收购其母公司上游资产的道路。 配售价较2月4日收市价折让9.5%，将摊薄股权3.2% 中石化令市场意外地配售2,845,234,000股H股，相当于现时已发行H股的17.0%及集团总股本的3.2% ，因此在交易获得批准后(预期于2月14日)，其每股盈利将被摊薄3.2%。配售价为每股8.45港元，较2月4日收市价9.34港元折让9.5%。 或将收购母公司于海外的上游资产 虽然中石化公布集资所得款项将用于「一般运营资金」，然而华尔街日报表示，集团将利用该笔款项从母公司中国石化集团手中收购一系列油气资产，包括于英国、俄罗斯、哥伦比亚及哈萨克斯坦的项目。随著集团涉足更多的上游项目，预期集团与中石油、中海油的估值差距将会被收窄。 仍需要更多的资金 尽管筹得240亿港元或大约31亿美元，预期集团需要80亿美元方能完成对母公司上游资产的收购。我们预计集团会通过A股市场发行可换股债券以筹集更多的资金，预计需发行306亿人民币的可换股债券以填补资金缺口。然而，这需要在预期于4月举行的股东大会中获得通过。故此，我们估计任何收购均需待股东大会后才能进行。 估值 下调目标价至每股8.72港元以反映摊薄效应。评级下调至「中性」。 盈利预测及估值 人民币百万元 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E 营业额 1,913,182 2,505,683 2,707,277 2,817,341 2,931,880 同比增长(%) 42% 31% 8% 4% 4% 净利润 77,982 78,445 59,088 82,395 85,832 同比增长(%) 16% 1% -25% 39% 4% 每股盈利（元） 0.83 0.84 0.64 0.85 0.88 每股股息（元） 0.19 0.22 0.24 0.34 0.35 市盈率（X） 9.0 8.4 11.2 8.4 8.1 市净率（X） 1.7 1.5 1.2 1.0 0.8 ROE（%） 16% 14% 9% 10% 9% 资料来源：招商证券（香港）预测 中性 (上次：买入) 目标价：HK$ 8.72 现价：HK$8.74 招商证券(香港)研究部 郁明德 (852) 31896123 yukmt@cmschina.com.cn 2013年2月6日 基础数据 恒生指数 23,148.53 H股指数 11,813.39 总股数（百万股） 16,780.49 港股股数（百万股） 16,780.49 港股市值(港元百万) 747,817.38 每股净资产（港元） 5.53 主要股东 持股(％) 中海油集团 7.04% 自由流通量 92.67% 行业 石油/天然气 股价表现 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 (3.3) 21.4 (5.4) 相对恒指表现 (3.0) 5.1 (17.7) -30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%Jan 12Mar 12May 12Jul 12Sep 12Nov 12Jan 13%00386.HKHSI IndexSino Land (23.HK) Price 资料来源：彭博 相关报告 新股配售铺收购之路 Please see important notice on the last page. 2 of 6 Company Report Sinopec (00386.HK) Sinopec announced that it will be issuing over 2.8bn new shares to 10 undisclosed investors raising HK$24.0bn in its first share issuance since listing in 2000. The issuance may pave the way to acquire its parent’s upstream assets. 3.2% dilution at 9.5% discount to Feb 4th’s closing price Sinopec’s surprise share issuance of 2,845,234,000 H-shares represents 17.0% of the existing H-shares in issue and 3.2% of total issued shares of the company, which is also the amount of earning dilution that will take effect once the deal receives approval (expected on Feb 14th). Shares were placed at price of HK$8.45/share, which equates to a 9.5% discount to Feb 4th’s closing price of HK$9.34/share. Possible acquisition of parent’s oversea upstream assets Despite Sinopec reporting the share issuance for “general corporate purposes”, the Wall Street Journal reports that the proceeds will be used to acquire a range of oil & gas assets, including projects in the U.K., Russia, Colombia and Kazakhstan, from parent China Petrochemical Corp. This could narrow the gap in valuation multiple with peers like PetroChina and CNOOC as Sinopec’s ‘downstream’ overhang is lifted. More funding needed Despite raising HK$24bn or approximately US$3.1bn, an estimated US$8.0bn is need to completed the acquisition of its parent’s upstream assets. A possible source of funding could come in the way of convertible bonds issued on the A-share market. We estimate a RMB30.6bn in CB’s could be used to bridge the funding gap. However, this could require shareholder approval at the company’s next AGM, expected in April. Hence, any acquisition would be after the AGM, in our view. Valuation Reducing target price to HK$8.72/share to reflect dilution. Downgrade to ‘Neutral’. Financials RMB mn 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E Revenue 1,913,182 2,505,683 2,707,277 2,817,341 2,931,880 Growth(%) 42% 31% 8% 4% 4% Net profit 77,982 78,445 59,088 82,395 85,832 Growth(%) 16% 1% -25% 39% 4% EPS（yuan） 0.83 0.84 0.64 0.85 0.88 DPS（yuan） 0.19 0.22 0.24 0.34 0.35 P/E（X） 9.0 8.4 11.2 8.4 8.1 P/B（X） 1.7 1.5 1.2 1.0 0.8 ROE（%） 16% 14% 9% 10% 9% Source: Company data, CMS(HK) estimatesNeutral (prior：Buy ) TP： HK$ 8.72 Current price：HK$8.74 China Merchants Securities (HK) Michael Yuk (852) 31896123 yukmt@cmschina.com.cn 6 Feb 2013 Key data HSI Index 23,148.53 HSCEI Index 11,813.39 S/O（mn） 16,780.49 S/O (HK)（mn） 16,780.49 Mkt cap (HK) (mn) 747,817.38 BVPS（HKD） 5.53 Major share holder Holding (％) JP Morgan Chase 7.04% Free float 92.67% Industry Oil & Gas Share performance % 1m 6m 12m Absolute return (3.3) 21.4 (5.4) Relative return (3.0) 5.1 (17.7) -30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%Jan 12Mar 12May 12Jul 12Sep 12Nov 12Jan 13%00386.HKHSI IndexSino Land (23.HK) Price Source：Bloomberg Related research New shares pave path for acquisition Please see important notice on the last page. 3 of 6 Company Report Since Chairman FU Chengyu took over the helm of Sinopec in 2011, he has tried to rebalance Sinopec’s assets and operations and align the company more with international oil companies, like ExxonMobil, Shell, and Chevron. However, we would note that C