中国海外发展：2010年中期业绩好于预期,维持“优于大市”评级

Company ReportOutperform (Prior: Outperform) TP：HK$ 19.50 CHINA OVERSEAS(00688.HK) 2010 interim earning result better than expectation China Overseas Land & Investment Limited (COLI) reported a stronger than expected core net profit of HK$3.86 billion in the fist half 2010, up 27% yoy and exceed our previous forecast of HK$3.64 billion by roughly 6%. COLI’s FY10 interim turnover increased 13.4% to HK$17.55 billion, driven by the strong bookable property sales result. With COLI’s FY10 recognized property average selling price (ASP) jumped 32% yoy, its gross margin and gross profit were also expanded by 3.1 percentage points and 23% respectively in the first half this year. Combining with one-off equity disposal gain of HK$ 1.2 billion, COLI’s FY10 headline net profit was about K$ 5.07 billion, up 66.7% yoy. Current price：HK$16.74 China Merchants Securities (HK) Stanley Wu +86-755-83295441 Wuxuan@cmschina.com.cn 02 Sep 2010 Key data H HSI Index 20911.31HSCEI Index 11702.20S/O（mn） 8169S/O (HK)（mn） 8172House completion target set at 6 million Sq.m The house completion volume for COLI was 1.65 million Sqm in 1H 2010, representing a lock-in ratio of 27.5% to its FY10 house completion target of 6 million Sqm. COLI’s house construction volume had grew rapidly since 3Q last year, and its 1H 2010 new house start area of 5.1 million Sqm was represented a faster than expected target achievement ratio of 56.7% based on COLI’s FY10 property commencement for construction target of 9 million Sqm. The management believes its sealable property unit will significantly increase in 2H 2010, given its sufficient nder-constructed house reserve and on time house delivery schedule. Mkt cap (HK) (mn) 136633BVPS（HKD） 5.68Major share holder Holding (％)CSCE Corporation 53.07Free float 46.55Industry u Property sales result meet expectation COLI’s Ytd house sales volume and contract sales revenue reached 2.6 million Sqm and HK$ 3.3 billion by the end of July 2010, representing a yoy change of -18.5% and 8.9% respectively. With COLI’s saleable house unit gradually increase and house market sentiment continue recovering in the second half this year, we believe COLI will on-track to achieve its FY10 property sales target of 4.8 million Sqm. Based on our estimated FY10 ASP of HK$10,315/Sqm, COLI may achieve a total contract ales revenue of HK$ 49.5 billion throughout the year 2010. Share performance %1m 6m12mAbsolute return -7 -10-26Relative return -5 -9-25 -40-30-20-1001020Sep-09Jan-10May-10Sep-10(%)00688.HKHSI Index Source：Bloomberg s Raise target price to HK$19.50 We maintain a “outperform” rating for COLI based on our revised up target price of HK$ 19.50. Our target price is representing nil discount and 16x PER to COLI’s FY10 NAV/Share and EPS. Related research Financials (HK$ mln) 2008 2009 2010E2011E 2012ERevenue 18,892 37,322 43,555 53,590 62,592 Growth (%) 13.6% 97.5% 16.7%23.0%16.8%Net income 5,049 7,469 9,843 10,253 12,497 Growth (%) 20.8% 47.9% 31.8%4.2%21.9%EPS(RMB) 0.64 0.92 1.20 1.25 1.53 DPS(RMB) 0.13 0.20 0.30 0.35 0.45 P/E(X) 26.2 18.3 13.9 13.3 10.9 P/B(X) 4.0 3.3 2.9 2.8 2.7 ROE (%) 15.2% 17.7% 21.0%21.2%24.7%Source: Company data, CMS (HK) estimate Please see important notice on the last page. 1 of 5 公司报告优于大市 中国海外发展(00688.HK) (上次：优于大市) 中国海外发展有限公司（下称公司）今年上半年确认营业收入175.5亿元（港元，下同），相比去年同期增长13.4%。由于入账物业结算均价有所上升，公司今年上半年的毛利率及毛利润分别较09年同期提高3.1个百分点及23%至40.7%及71.5亿元，其当期的净利润则因计入了12亿元的一次性资产处置收益（出让项目权益、收购附属公司产生的折价收益）而同比大幅提升66.7%至50.7亿元。2010年上半年，公司经常性业务产生净利润约38.6亿元，比09年同期水平上升27%，并高于我们此前的预测值约6%。为了满足业务扩展的潜在资金需求，公司于今年上半年新增借款133亿元，其中120亿元为长期贷款。受此影响，公司今年6月末时的净负债率已升至48.4%，而该指标在09年末时仅为22.4%。 2010年中期业绩好于预期，维持“优于大市”评级 目标价：HK$ 19.50 现价：HK$16.74 招商证券(香港)研究部 吴轩 +86-755-83295441 Wuxuan@cmschina.com.cn 2010年9月2日 基础数据 恒生指数 20911.31维持10年度物业竣工与开工面积目标不变 今年1-6月份，公司竣工物业165万平方米，相对其全年600万平方米的房屋竣工目标的达成率仅为27.5%。同期，公司新开工项目的建筑面积约为510万平方米，已锁定其2010年全年900万平方米新屋开工目标的56.7%。公司管理层表示，其物业开工量自去年3季度起明显提速，致使其本年度的新房供应集中在下半年释放。考虑到公司目前的资金面比较充裕，今年上半年已竣工物业的销售率亦接近%，因此我们认为公司今年应