IEA报告：玩等待游戏

DISCLOSURE APPENDIX CONTAINS ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. FOR OTHER IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, visit www.credit-suisse.com/ researchdisclosures or call +1 (877) 291-2683. U.S. Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. 13 July 2010 Global Equity Research Energy / Oil & Gas The IEA Report - July MONTHLY Playing the waiting game ■ Rolling out new forecast for 2011 – slower demand growth versus 2010. The IEA’s July report makes few changes to forecasts, but rolls out outlook for 2011 for the first time. Demand growth is expected to slow from 1.8 mbd in 2010 to 1.4 mbd in 2011. CS forecasts are higher, mainly on OECD demand. ■ Current 2010 forecast implies slower demand growth in 2H10. Demand in 1H10 grew 2.5 mbd YoY. Current 2010 forecasts therefore imply a slowdown in growth in 2H10 – 1.3 mbd based on IEA numbers and 1.8 mbd on CS forecast. This is plausible, we believe, especially in non-OECD markets where YoY growth rates are skewed in 1H10 due to low base effects (like China), and 2H10 faces headwinds of slowing growth momentum. ■ Slower non-OPEC supply growth in 2011. The IEA forecasts non-OPEC supply to grow 400 kbd in 2011, moderating over the 750 kbd average growth in 2009 and 2010. These numbers are hurricane-adjusted and have some initial impact of Macondo built in. The IEA also warns of further potential downside on the GoM. ■ The process of “discovering” oil in models to continue. Consistent with the IEA’s medium-term report, their forecasts once again acknowledge the upward bias on non-OPEC supply and the likely lower base decline rates in the face of continued capex and spending growth. We believe that this process of “discovering” oil in models rather than in the ground is likely to continue in the next 12-15 months. ■ Flat call on OPEC in 2H10 and 2011. The IEA’s forecast call on OPEC to remain largely flat from this point on, with a slight tightening bias in 2H11. Current OPEC production remains above their estimated call on OPEC through 2H10 and 2011 (barring 3Q11). ■ Tighter markets in 2012-14. Could the base disappoint? Markets appear to be balanced in 2011. Our model suggests a tightening of markets between 2012-2014, although absolute spare capacity is expected to remain above 4Q07 levels, when oil crossed US$80/bbl in the last cycle. We note that most metrics – the forward curve, the skew of options and consensus estimates – suggest that the commodity market is pricing in tighter markets. The key question for oil prices then is whether the pace of tightening will surprise or disappoint? If the IEA is to be believed for 2011, then it would seem the latter. Figure 1: Summary of IEA forecasts for 2010 (mmbd) Latest Previous mth Change (mmbd) Change (%) World oil demand 86.49 86.44 0.05 0.1% US 18.95 18.97 -0.02 -0.1% OECD 45.50 45.52 -0.02 0.0% Non-OPEC supply 52.40 52.31 0.09 0.2% Call on OPEC 28.83 28.73 0.10 0.3% Source: IEA, Credit Suisse estimates Research Analysts Prashant Gokhale 852 2101 6944 prashant.gokhale@credit-suisse.com Edward Westlake 212 325 6751 edward.westlake@credit-suisse.com Jonathan Wolff, CFA 212 538 4563 jon.wolff@credit-suisse.com Mark Henderson +44 20 7883 6901 mark.henderson.2@credit-suisse.com Brian Dutton 416 352 4596 brian.dutton@credit-suisse.com Emerson Leite, CFA 55 11 3841 6290 emerson.leite@credit-suisse.com Kim Fustier +44 20 7883 0384 kim.fustier@credit-suisse.com Andrew Williams 61 3 9280 1641 andrew.j.williams@credit-suisse.com Brad Handler 212 325 0772 brad.handler@credit-suisse.com Arun Jayaram, CFA 212 538 8428 arun.jayaram@credit-suisse.com Anish Patel, CFA 212 325 3780 anish.c.patel@credit-suisse.com Tao Ly +44 20 7888 1778 tao.ly@credit-suisse.com David Mirzai 44 20 7888 1881 david.mirzai@credit-suisse.com Horace Tse 852 2101 7379 horace.tse@credit-suisse.com 13 July 2010 The IEA Report - July 2 Demand – latest forecasts Global Figure 2: Global oil demand estimates – 2010 Figure 3: Global oil demand estimates – 2011 86 .186 .286 .386 .486 .586 .686 .7IEA - 6M a goIE A - 3M agoIEA - LatestCS(MMBD) 87 .487 .687 .888 .088 .288 .488 .688 .8IEA - L ate stCS(MMBD) Source: IEA, Credit Suisse estimates Source: IEA, Credit Suisse estimates US Figure 4: US oil demand estimates – 2010 Figure 5: US oil demand estimates – 2011 18 .6518 .7018 .7518 .8018 .8518 .9018 .9519 .00IEA - 6 M agoIEA - 3 M agoIEA - L atestCS(MMBD) 18 .7018 .7518 .8018 .8518 .9018 .9519 .0019 .0519 .10IEA - LatestCS(MMBD) Source: IE