全球宏观经济图册

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 of 23 China: Economy Cools from Partial Overheating The decision to restart the reform of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism shows confidence of government in economic recovery and current employment situation, reflecting its confidence in economic structure transformation. Leading indicators and industrial added value suggest that China's economy cooling off from the partial overheating. Impacts imposed by macro-control policies on real estate investment and the European debt crisis appear gradually. We believe that inflation will peak in the third quarter, given the complex economic situation, the probability of an interest rate hike in 2010 is lower. United States: Leading Indicators Suggest Slowdown in Economic Growth U.S. economy continues to recover, but the leading indicators have begun to drop from the high level. Employment recovery and growth in consumer spending are slow. Whether the real estate market can be stabilized after the expiry of stimulus policies becomes one of the major factors to judge the economy recovery trend. Euro zone's debt crisis has a significant negative impact on the financial market risk premium and banks’ attitude towards lending. The Fed also began to reassess the strength of economic recovery. According to the inflationary pressure and the capacity utilization, chances that Federal Reserve leaves key interest rate unchanged this year are rising. Europe: Marked Deterioration in Third Quarter Macroeconomic Data With the expiry of stimulus policies in 2H2010, effects imposed by the European debt crisis will appear gradually in Q32010. At the same time as the inventory starts to decrease from the peak, macro-economic data will be significantly deteriorated. We expect that the European Central Bank will defer the interest rate hike to 2H2011. The market remains worried about Spain's debt financing peak in July. The debt crisis is gradually spreading from the banking sector to the private sector. The worst is still ahead.Edward Anhua Ding Chief Economist dinganhua@cmschina. com.cn Dr. David XIE （86-755）82943724 xieyx@cmschina.com.cn Dr. Cliff ZHAO （852）31896126 wenlizhao@cmschina.com.cn Qing LI （852）31896142 qingli@cmschina.com.cn China Merchants Securities 2 July 2010 June 2010Global Macro Chartbook Macro Report 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 of 23 中国：经济从偏热中退烧 决策层重启人民币汇率形成机制改革显示其对当前经济回升态势和就业状况有信心，同时也是调结构决心的体现。从领先指标和工业增加值指标看，中国经济已从偏热中开始回落。调控政策对房地产投资的影响和欧洲债务危机对出口的影响逐步显现。我们认为通胀将在三季度内见顶，考虑复杂的经济形势，全年不加息的可能性在上升。 美国：领先指标显示经济增速将趋缓 美国经济持续复苏，但其领先指标已开始高位回落，就业恢复和消费开支增长的启动缓慢。优惠政策到期后房地产市场能否真正企稳也成为判断经济复苏走势的一个要点。欧洲债务危机对金融市场风险溢价和银行信贷发放态度有显著的负面影响，美联储也开始重新评估经济复苏力度。从目前的通胀压力和产能利用率状况看，联储全年不加息的概率很大。 欧洲：三季度宏观经济数据将会明显转差 随着下半年政策刺激措施退潮，三季度欧洲债务危机的影响将会逐步显现。同时由于库存周期开始见顶下行，宏观经济数据将会明显转差。预计欧洲央行将会把加息时点推迟至明年下半年。7月份西班牙的债务融资高峰仍将牵动市场神经，欧洲债务危机正逐步向以银行业为主的私人部门蔓延，债务危机最坏的时刻还远未到来。 全球宏观经济图册 招商证券 首席经济学家 丁安华 （852）31896105 dinganhua@cmschina. com.cn 谢亚轩 博士 （86-755）82943724 xieyx@cmschina.com.cn 赵文利 博士 （852）31896126 wenlizhao@cmschina.com.cn 李青 （852）31896142 qingli@cmschina.com.cn 2010年7月2日 宏观报告2010年6月份 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 3 of 23 一、产出...................................................4 OECD经济领先指标.........................................4 工业产值增速..............................................5 PMI（制造业、服务业）.....................................6 二、就业...................................................7 失业率....................................................7 三、价格...................................................8 CPI.......................................................8 PPI.......................................................9 通胀预期.................................................10 四、进出口贸易............................................11 进出口同比增速...........................................11 进出口订单...............................................12 五、投资..................................................13 新屋开工.................................................13 企业/商业信心............................................14 六、消费..................................................15 消费者信心...............................................15 零售销售额...............................................16 七、货币和信贷............................................17 消费者信贷...............................................17 八、利率和汇率............................................18 央行基准利率.............................................18 汇率.....................................................19 九、房地产市场............................................20 成交量...................................................20 房价.....................................................21 十、资本市场..............................................22 市场指数.................................................22 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 4 of 23一、产出 OECD经济领先指标 中国OECD领先指标 中国OECD领先指标100.7890929496981001021041061082000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007