全球宏观经济数据图册

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 of 23宏观报告全球宏观经济数据图册 2010年5月份 招商证券 丁安华 首席经济学家 （852）31896105 dinganhua@cmschina. com.cn 谢亚轩 博士 （86-755）82943724 xieyx@cmschina.com.cn 赵文利 博士 （852）31896126 wenlizhao@cmschina.com.cn 李青 （852）31896142 qingli@cmschina.com.cn 2010年5月30日 中国：目前的数据显示经济偏热但调控政策的作用将逐步显现 不论从整体价格水平还是产出以及进出口相对增速等指标看，中国经济都呈现偏热的迹象，但领先指标和货币增速已显示经济的增速将走缓，调控政策的效果将逐步显现。欧元区债务危机的冲击力还需要评估，会延缓中国政策“退出”的时间点，降低政策收缩的力度。 美国：经济呈现持续复苏的态势 美国经济持续复苏，但其领先指标已开始高位回落，库存调整和财政政策刺激的动能在下降，消费明显启动的时间可能要到三季度以后。信贷市场和房地产市场都有明显的积极信号，但是欧洲债务危机对金融市场的风险态度有显著的负面影响。美国的通胀压力较低，按照目前产能利用率的回升速度，到三季度末四季度初才具备加息的基础，但考虑欧洲债务危机的影响，联储全年不加息的概率在增加。 欧洲：二次下滑的风险增加 欧元区经济今年第一季度仅实现同比增长0.5%，环比增长0.2%，尽管去年同期基数很低。成员之间的经济复苏分化的趋势愈加明显。由于下半年补库存对经济的推动作用将明显减弱，如果净出口增长不足以填补投资和消费下滑的缺口，债务危机导致的信贷紧缩和财政整固将会给经济带来显著的下行风险。我们维持经济增速前高后低，全年增长0.5%的判断。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 of 23Macro Report Global Economy Chartbook May2010 China: Economy is overheating but the effect of macro-control measures will become apparent gradually Anhua DING Chief Economist （852）31896105 dinganhua@cmschina. com.cn Dr. David XIE （86-755）82943724 xieyx@cmschina.com.cn Dr. Cliff ZHAO （852）31896126 wenlizhao@cmschina.com.cn Qing LI （852）31896142 qingli@cmschina.com.cn China Merchants Securities 30 May 2010 Either the overall price level or the relative growth rate of imports and exports indicates signs of overheating in China's economy, however the leading indicators and monetary growth have shown that economic growth will slow down, the effect of macro-control policies will be more clearly shown. China might postpone its stimulus policy exit and reduce the intensity of the tightening policy due to the rising uncertainty of the impact of the euro zone's debt crisis. crisis. United States: Economy recovery gaining continued momentum U.S. economy continues to recover, but the leading indicators have begun to drop from the high level, the effect of inventory adjustment and fiscal policy is fading and a obvious rise in consumption may not happen until the third quarter. Credit markets and real estate markets display a clear positive signal, but the euro zone's debt crisis has a significant negative impact on the risk attitude of the market. U.S. has low inflation pressure, according to the rebound velocity of the capacity utilization, we expect no rate hike until the end of 2010Q3 or the beginning of the 2010Q4, but considering the impact of the debt crisis in Europe, chances that Federal Reserve leaves key interest rate unchanged this year are rising. Europe: Increasing risk of double-dip recession In 2010Q1, despite the low base last year, the euro zone economy grew by just 0.5% and 0.2%, compared respectively to 2009Q1 and 2009Q4. The economic recovery among the members shows the trend of the increasing differentiation. Since the restocking effect will fade in the latter half of 2010, if the net export growth is not able to fill the gap caused by the declining investment and consumption, the economy will experience significant downside risk given the credit tighting and financial consolidation led by the debt crisis. We maintain our view that the economic growth will follow a downward sloping curve in 2010 with an annual growth rate of 0.5%. 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 3 of 23 一、产出...................................................4 OECD经济领先指标..........................................4 工业产值增速..............................................5 PMI（制造业、服务业）.....................................6 二、就业...................................................7 失业率....................................................7 三、价格...................................................8 CPI.......................................................8 PPI.......................................................9 通胀预期.................................................10 四、进出口贸易............................................11 进出口同比增速...........................................11 进出口订单...............................................12 五、投资..................................................13 新屋开工.................................................13 企业/商业信心............................................14 六、消费..................................................15 消费者信心...............................................15 零售销售额...............................................16 七、货币和信贷............................................17 消费者信贷...............................................17 八、利率和汇率............................................18 央行基准利率.............................................18 汇率.....................................................19 九、房地产市场............................................20 成交量...................................................20 房价.....................................................21 十、资本市场..............................................22