吉利汽车：低估洼地,建议短期参与

Please see important notice on the last page. 1 of 15Company ReportGEELY AUTOMOBILE(00175.HK) Geely Automobile Holding Limited (Geely or the Company), a self-brand cars manufacturer. The Company achieved 228%y-o-y revenue growth to Rmb14bil in 2009, and enjoyed attributable profit of Rmb1.18bil (up 35%y-o-y), diluted earning of Rmb0.167 per share (2008:Rmb0.143). The Board finally decided a dividend of Rmb0.023 per share. (2008: Rmb0.016). We expect the reasonable 12-months target price is HK$2.78, implied 16% upside potential. However, we recommended range trading only due to the weak competitiveness and potential risk under the “Multi-Brand” strategy. Weak competitiveness, the private manufacturer look for the way to high-end brand We recognized the Company’s strong operating efficiency and efficient cost control. At the same time, we are looking forward more competitive improvement on the other core aspects, especially brand reputation, product quality and the sales scales. Continued oversea-brand acquisition and recent management replacement showed us that Geely is keen to be classified as a high-end brand auto manufacturer. What we concerned is the implied risk arisen from the re-branding. 2010 target sales of 400 thousands, in line with sector expected growth The Company sold 163 thousands cars in the first five months, complete 41.58% of target sales volume. We expect the annual target is achievable, but the sales is unlikely appear surprises. Sales revenue is expected to display higher growth, as result of the increasing sales portion of high prices car models. 8 new models coming by the end of 2010, drag down gross margin We expect the huge amortization will inevitably drag down the gross margin once the new models launched. Accordingly, the gross margin of 2010 is expected 1-2% lower than 2009. Valuation and rating We expect the 12 months target price is HK$2.78, rate “Outperformed” accordingly. Financials 31 Dec RMB Mil 2008 2009 2010E2011E2012ERevenue 4289 14069 174462093525122Growth(%) -40% 228% 24%20%20%Operating profit 560 1119 133118422502Growth(%) -37% 100% 19%38%36%Net profit 879 1183 1320 1917 2470 Growht(%) 19% 35% 12%45%29%EPS (yuan) 0.15 0.17 0.19 0.28 0.36 P/E(X) 14.0 12.3 11.0 7.6 5.9 P/B(X) 2.9 2.3 1.9 1.5 1.2 Source: Company data, CMS(HK) estimateOutperformed (Initial Coverage) TP：HK$ 2.78 Current price：HK$2.4 China Merchants Securities (HK) Colleen Li, Susanna Sun 0755-83295119 lik@cmschina.com.cn 01 July2010 Key data HSI Index 19471.80HSCEI Index 11158.84S/O（mn） 7311S/O (HK)（mn） 7330Mkt cap (HK) (mn) 20450BVPS（HKD） 0.87Major share holder Holding (％)Free float 48.70Industry Share performance %1m 6m12mAbsolute return -39 -6955Relative return -32 -5453 -50050100150200Jun-09Sep-09Dec-09May-10(%)00175.HKHSI Index Source：Bloomberg Related research Undervalued, recommend range trading 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 of 15公司报告吉利汽车(00175.HK) 吉利汽车控股有限公司（下称“吉利汽车”或公司）主要业务为轿车的制造和销售，2009年总营业收入同比增加228%至140.07亿元，可分配利润同比增长35%至11.83亿元。摊薄后每股盈利16.7分（2008年，14.3分），末期股息2.3分（2008年，1.6分）。我们认为公司合理股价中枢为2.78港元，隐含16%的上升空间。同时我们认为公司在同业中综合竞争优势不明显，正在进行的“多品牌”战略存在较大风险，即使目前股价处于低估洼地，但仅建议短期操作。 行业优势不明显，寻找出路的民营车企 作为民营企业的自主品牌车企，最大优势在于企业内部执行力强、成本控制有效。然而在其他更多方面，如品牌口碑、产品品质及竞争力、销售渠道范围等等，我们没有能够看到公司有足够优势与竞争者抗衡。公司近期大动作不断，收购高端品牌，高管换血，举措大胆显示进军高端车企的决心。从公司目前基本情况看来，这些举措所隐含的操作风险值得留心关注。 公司2010年销售目标40万辆，符合行业增长预期 公司今年以来首5个月的累计销售约16.63万辆，已完成目标销售量的41.58%，我们认为今年达标可能性较大，但大幅超预期的业绩可能性低。考虑到公司的销售车型已经有结构性变化，正从低端车型往较高端车型转移重心，我们认为公司销售收入增长会稍高于销量增长。2010年预计销售收入增长为24%。 今年计划推出8种新款车型 公司毛利率将受负面影响 公司今年计划推出共8款新车。新款车型推出虽然对公司的销售量上会有一定帮助，但将大额摊销将拉低毛利率水平。考虑到公司今年的销售车型结构已逐步向高价高毛利率车型转移，并将抵消部分上述负面影响，我们认为公司2010年毛利率水平或将下降1%-2%。 估值与评级 我们预计公司12个月目标股价为2.78港元，给予“优于大市”投资评级。 盈利预测及估值 12月31日人民币百万元 2008 2009 2010E2011E2012E主营收入(百万元) 4289 14069 174462093525122同比增长 -40% 228% 24%20%20%营业利润(百万元) 560 1119 133118422502同比增长 -37% 100% 19%38%36%净利润(百万元) 879 1183 1320 1917 2470 同比增长 19% 35% 12%45%29%每股收益(元) 0.15 0.17 0.19 0.28 0.36 P/E(倍) 14.0 12.3 11.0 7.6 5.9 P/B(倍) 2.9 2.3 1.9 1.5 1.2 资料来源：公司资料,招商证券（香港）预测 优于大市 (首次覆盖) 目标价：HK$ 2.78 现价：HK$2.4 招商证券(香港)研究部 李康 孙娜 0755-83295119 lik@cmschina