美国经济/策略周刊：劳动力市场是展望的关键

North America United States 2 July 2010 US Economics/Strategy WeeklyQuarterly Update: Labor Market is Key to Outlook Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MICA(P) 007/05/2010 Economics Table of Contents A Grinding Labor Market Recovery .................. Page 2Quarterly update................................................ Page 3Bullish Yields Through to a Policy Shift ............ Page 7Calendar........................................................... Page 14Contacts .......................................................... Page 15 Research Team Joseph LaVorgna Economist (+1) 212 250-7329 joseph.lavorgna@db.com Carl Riccadonna Economist (+1) 212 250-0186 carl.riccadonna@db.com Dominic Konstam Research Analyst (+1) 212 250-9753 dominic.konstam@db.com Mustafa Chowdhury Research Analyst (+1) 212 250-7540 mustafa.chowdhury@db.com Marcus Huie Research Analyst (+1) 212 250-8356 marcus.huie@db.com Alex Li Research Analyst (+1) 212 250-5438 alex-g.li@db.com Forecasts 20102011Q1Q2FQ3FQ4FQ1FQ2FReal GDP (% q/ q AR)3.04.03.73.83.53.3Core PCE (%y/ y)1.41.11.01.11.21.2Unemployment rate9.79.69.39.08.78.4Fed funds0.130.130.130.130.501.002-yr Treasury Y ield0.950.610.500.501.002.0010-yr Treasury Yield3.702.962.752.753.003.50Macro Global Markets Research Economics „ A Grinding Labor Market Recovery: The June employment report confirmed our view that the labor recovery is progressing, but the pace continues to be stubbornly anemic. Monetary policymakers’ concerns of another “jobless recovery” will hardly be diminished by the latest results. While there is one more jobs report ahead of the August 10 FOMC meeting, there is little reason to believe the extended period language will change anytime soon. As we highlight in the following section, we are pushing our forecast for the first Fed rate hike into next year. „ Quarterly Update: Our economic growth, headline inflation and unemployment forecasts are little changed from the last quarterly update. However, lower than expected core inflation, an uneven labor recovery and concerns about sovereign risks have given us cause to change our forecast for monetary policy tightening from November 2010 to Q1 2011. For the Fed to commence removing extreme policy accommodation, sovereign risks need to abate and more importantly, the labor market needs to show more robust gains in private payrolls. If the labor market does not improve significantly in the near term, then monetary policy will be on hold much longer than we currently envision and downside risks to our forecast would rise commensurately. „ Bullish Yields Through to a Policy Shift: We remain bullish on bonds. Any setbacks will be short-lived and shallow and should be used as buying opportunities, and 10s could trade to around 2½ percent. „ Our next publication date will be July 16, 2010. We are still waiting for more substantial labor gains to materialize -800-600-400-2000200400990103050709y/y chg, Thous -8000-6000-4000-2000020004000y/y chg, Thous Temporary help services ( ls)Total nonfarm employment (rs)Source: BLS & DB Global Markets Research 2 July 2010 US Economics/Strategy Weekly Page 2 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. A Grinding Labor Market RecoverySummary: The June employment report confirmed our view that the labor recovery is progressing, but the pace continues to be stubbornly anemic. Job gains were logged in the manufacturing and non-government service sector, but the unemployment rate declined for all the wrong reasons—as workers left the labor force. In turn, monetary policymakers’ concerns of another “jobless recovery” will hardly be diminished by the latest results. While there is one more employment report ahead of the August 10 FOMC meeting, there is little reason to believe that the extended period language will change anytime soon. As we highlight in the following section, we are pushing our forecast for the first Fed rate hike into next year. Another weak employment report The June employment news was on the soft side as headline payrolls