汇丰控股：调研简报,维持买入评级

公司报告HSBC HLDGS PLC(00005.HK) We visited HSBC Holdings plc (HSBC) HK headquarter office recently, and discussed the following concerns about NIM trend, asset quality, regional economy, loan distribution and shanghai public listing etc. with the management. We think the stock is currently trading at an attractive price compares with peers(1.3x 2010EP/B), maintain our 12mth target price of HKD100, reiterate buy. Interest hike will have positive impact on NIM The management implied that the interest hike will have positive impact on NIM. However they prefer the current low interest rate situation can be last for the whole 2010. Personal financial services and commercial banking all facing NIM downside pressure, while global banking performed well and lifted up NIM. Financial crisis led deposits transfer form small banks to large banks and HSBC HK L/D ratio is only 43%. HSBC is currently invested the low cost money in government bonds with duration no longer than 2 years, which helps lift up NIM. HK market NIM is facing the competition pressure from Asian and American banks. Overall, the management implied that the NIM for 2010 will stay stable. 2010 credit cost trend remain cautious The asset quality trend is looking more positive in Q1 2010，credit quality improved faster than the management anticipated in US consumer finance, loan impairment charges fell to the lowest quarterly level for two years. While the situation in Europe and Middle East has not improved. In UK, where most HSBC Europe lending has distributed, the majority lending was focus on residential mortgage, didn’t get involved in risky mortgage, the majority customers are the existing customer to the banks, HSBC UK has low proportional of commercial property lending. If interest rate rises in UK, some SME customers would get into trouble. For the industry as a whole, there is a risk. However HSBC is confident with its European loan book. Loan impairment charges in Middle East region are higher than that of the Q12009, however lower than that of Q42009; impairment charges in Latin America reduced, while revenue in both regions were lower than in Q12009. View on Europe is quite cautious, Greek default has less impact on HSBC HSBC currently has 15 branches in Greece, while most its business are with shipping companies, limited and manageable, HSBC does not have treasure in Greece but Govt. bonds in Pairs. No ideal M&A deal target in the current stage HSBC is focusing on looking for M&A target in Asia, Latrine American, and Africa especially South Africa regions. The management pointed out there isn’t very much to buy in the current stage, because most targets are low quality but higher price companies. HSBC has already moved its Global M&A office to Hong Kong. Buy (prior：Buy) TP：HK$ 100 Current price：HK$77.70 China Merchants Securities (HK) Susanna Sun 0755-83295348 sunna@cmschina.com.cn 11 May2010 Key data HSI Index 20426.64HSCEI Index 11717.32S/O（mn） 17408S/O (HK)（mn） 17427Mkt cap (HK) (mn) 1354102BVPS（USD） 7.37Major share holder Holding (％)Free float 100Industry BankingShare performance %1m 6m12mAbsolute return -6 -2613Relative return 5 -12-2-2 00204060May-09Aug-09Dec-09Apr-10(%)00005 .HKHSI IndexSource：Bloomberg Related research Reading from annual results:<Net interest income decreased, non-interest income showed recovery signs> 02/03/2010 <Analyst briefing update，upgrade to Buy> 17/03/2010 Notes taken from company visit，Maintain Buy 公司报告Shanghai listing might be completed in the first half of 2011 The management implied that is easy to list in 1H 2011, the demand capital in 2010 for mainland banks is very high, the possibility for HSBC to list in 2010 is not very high. Way to distribute credit Different to Chinese banks, HSBC does not have lending quota at the beginning of each year, it is really customer demand driven，no obvious seasonality. Normally 1H lending will reach 55% to 60% of whole year lending amount, October to December are the relative quiet months of the year. Solid 2010 Q1 performance HSBC’s financial performance in the first quarter of 2010 was very good and well ahead of Q1 2009 according to its interim management statement, substantially driven by lower loan impairment charges. Personal financial services and commercial banking accounted for most of this improvement, while global banking and markets was also ahead. Group’s L/D ratio below 80%, tier 1 ratio and the core tier 1 ratio came to 11.1% to 9.7%. Its first interim dividend for 2010 was US$0.08 per ordinary share. In the US, the seasonal credit experience was particularly favorable in the quarter, resulting in pre-tax profits for the first time since the financia