年报暨1季报点评：1季报低于预期,5年计划可期

Please see important notice on the last page. 1 of 6 Company BriefingCHINA COAL ENERG(01898.HK) China Coal Energy announced its 2009 result. For 2009, revenues of the company amounted to RMB53.2billion, representing a YOY growth of 2.8%; profit attributable to equity shareholders of the company amounted to RMB7.8 billion, representing a YOY growth of 9.9%; basic earnings per share was RMB0.59, in line with our expectation(09EPS0.58). Contract sales decreased in 2H09 The company reduced its contract coal sales from 81.1% in 1H09 to 73.0% for 09. Its domestic coal sales price remained stable during 09; contract price increased 10.1% YOY; spot price decreased 5.6% YOY. Effective cost management The company’s 09 production unit costs of self-produced raw coal decreased 2.6% YOY to RMB198.9/t, 10.6% higher than that of 1h09; 09 total unit costs of self-produced commercial coal decreased 3.3% YOY to RMB282.8/t, 6.4% higher than that of 1h09. Improving cost control mainly came from1) decrease in the total cost of external purchases of raw coal for washing purpose 2) commencement of new equipment operation resulting in a decrease in repairs expenses. 3) Unit cost of transportation expenses decreased due to a decrease in the sales volume of seaborne coal. We estimate its unit cost is likely to be up 5% if adjusted for changes of sales mix and third party coal purchase. Disappointing 1Q10 result The company’s March coal production and sales continued upward trend at the growth rate of 17.7% and 21.5% MOM. For 1Q, its coal sales recorded 43.7% increase YOY. For the same period, its contract sales price and spot price increased 8% and 20% respectively YOY, Strong 5 year expansion plans. In 2010, China Coal targets coal output rising by 15% (15mt). In 2009 China Coal has increased its recoverable coal reserves rising 55% to 8.7bt from 2007. China Coal has acquired 51% stake of two coal companies (14mtpy)and integrated two coal mines in Shanxi (5mtpy of capacity). Besides, China Coal expects its raw coal production and sales will reach 200mt in 2014, with targeting revenues amounted to RMB100b. Valuation Although China Coal 1Q earning is below expectation, we expect its strong 5 year expansion plan will continually generate decent earnings for the company. We estimate its 2010EPS is RMB0.73, target price is HK$14.9(18X2010EPS), “BUY” rating. Financials 31th Dec RMBm 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Revenue 50,993 53,187 61,431 67,574 74,332 Growth (%) 43.1% 4.3% 15.5% 10.0% 10.0% Gross Margin(%) 26.6% 23.5% 24.6% 25.3% 30.1% Net profit 7,141 7,834 9,630 10,898 14,116 Growth (%) 18.6% 9.7% 22.9% 13.2% 29.5% Diluted EPS(RMB) 0.54 0.59 0.73 0.82 1.06 DPS（RMB） 0.06 0.15 0.15 0.18 0.21 P/E(x) 20.0 18.2 14.8 13.1 10.1 ROE(%) 16.5% 12.8% 15.1% 15.4% 14.9% Source: Company data, CMS(HK) estimates BUY (prior：outperform) TP：：：：HK$ 14.9 Current price：HK$12.10 China Merchants Securities (HK) Shi Yu 852-31896121 shiyu@cmschina.com.cn 23 Apr 2010 Key data HSI Index 21454.94 HSCEI Index 12330.89 S/O（mn） 13259 S/O (HK)（mn） 4107 Mkt cap (HK) (mn) 49691 BVPS（HKD） 4.59 Major share holder Holding (％) China Coal Group 57.58 Free float 26.71 Industry Share performance % 1m 6m 12m Absolute return 0 1 19 Relative return -2 9 -14 -40-200204060Apr-09Aug-09Dec-09Apr-10(%)01898.HKHSI Index Source：Bloomberg Related research Update: Disappointing 1Q result, but rewarding 5 year plan 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 of 6 公司简报公司简报公司简报公司简报 中煤能源中煤能源中煤能源中煤能源(01898.HK) 中煤能源中煤能源中煤能源中煤能源公布公布公布公布2009年年年年业绩业绩业绩业绩,全年全年全年全年生产原煤生产原煤生产原煤生产原煤10,856万吨万吨万吨万吨,同比增加同比增加同比增加同比增加8.2%,完成完成完成完成销售量销售量销售量销售量9725万吨万吨万吨万吨,同比增长同比增长同比增长同比增长9.6%；；；；全年全年全年全年收入为收入为收入为收入为531.87亿元亿元亿元亿元(人民币人民币人民币人民币,下同下同下同下同),同比同比同比同比增加增加增加增加2.8%；；；；净利润为净利润为净利润为净利润为78.34亿元亿元亿元亿元,同比增加同比增加同比增加同比增加9.9%；；；；每股基本盈利为每股基本盈利为每股基本盈利为每股基本盈利为0.59元元元元,与我们的预期与我们的预期与我们的预期与我们的预期0.58元基本元基本元基本元基本一致一致一致一致。。。。 下半年现货下半年现货下半年现货下半年现货占比增加占比增加占比增加占比增加,价格小幅上涨价格小幅上涨价格小幅上涨价格小幅上涨 公司2009年下半年调整销售计划,内销长协销售占比从上半年的81.1%降低至2009年全年的73.0%,提高整体盈利水平。自产动力煤内销平均价格为406元/吨,同比基本持平。动力煤长协平均价格402元/吨,同比上涨10.1%；自产动力煤现货平均价格人民币408元/吨,同比下降5.6%。 成本控制较好成本控制较好成本控制较好成本控制较好 公司上半年自产原煤单位生产成本为198.9元/吨,同比下降2.6%,环比则上升10.6%,自产商品煤单位销售成本为282.8元/吨,同比下降3.3%,环比增加6.4%。09年成本环比上升是因为煤炭行业部分成本在第四季度实现。公司控制成本较好的原因主要是1）公司独立和自备洗煤厂使外购入选原煤总成本下降。2）公司新投入设备较多,修理开支减少。3）下水煤销量减少使得运输成本同比减少4.4元/吨。 1季报令人失望季报令人失望季报令人失望季报令人失望 1季度中煤销售量同比升43.7%,合同价格同比上升8%。刚公布的中国财务制度下的1季报中,公司营业收入同比上升55%,因营业成本增加大幅45%导致净利润同比上涨仅42.7%,低于我们预期的增长80%(假设成本不变)。 储量增加较多储量增加较多储量增加较多储量增加较多, 5年计划可期年计划可期年计划可期年计划可期 公司利用上市公司平台参与山西省煤炭资源整合,2009年新增煤炭资源60.4亿吨,目前拥有保有储量158.2亿吨,可采储量87.0亿吨, 其中1）中煤控股蒙大矿业和伊化矿业公司,预计未来将新增产能1400万吨；2）公司整合山西小回沟、明珠煤矿等地方煤矿,改造后可新增产能500万吨。公司预计2009年产能增加1500万吨。公司未来5年计划到2014年底原煤总产量和商品煤销售量均达到2亿吨,营业收入超过1000亿元。我们预计公司未来会有更多资本运作。 估值与评级估值与评级估值与评级估值与评级 虽然公司1季报没有惊喜,我们认为中煤未来5年计划将为公司带来持续的盈利回报。我们预计2010年每股盈利为0.73元,目标价格港币14.9元(18X2010EPS),投资评级为买入。