协众国际控股：利润率水平趋稳,上调到“收集”评级

GTJA Research 国泰君安研究 Xiezhong International 协众国际 (03663 HK) Company Report See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 11 Company Report: Xiezhong International (03663 HK) 中文版 Harry Chen 陈欢瑜公司报告：协众国际 (03663 HK) Chinese version +86 755 23976683chenhuanyu@gtjas.com 12 May 2014 Profitability to Stabilize, Upgrade to “Accumulate” Rating 利润率水平趋稳，上调到“收集”评级 z The revenue of the Company is expected to increase rapidly during 2014-2016. In 2013, the revenue of the Company increased rapidly, up 23.5% YoY since the Company received the sales orders from its existing clients to produce HVAC systems for sedans, as well as the sales orders from new clients. We expect the revenue of the Company to maintain rapid growth during 2014-2016 due to increasing penetration rate and sales for new clients. Therefore, revenue is expected to increase rapidly, up 19% YoY, 16% YoY and 14% YoY during 2014-2016, respectively. z Gross profit margin of the Company is expected to decrease further while net profit is expected to increase stably. Gross profit margin of the Company dropped significantly, down 3.1pps YoY to 23.3% in 2013, mainly due to intensifying competition in the automotive industry, soaring labor costs and the increase in turnover from HVAC systems for sedans which have much lower gross profit margin. We expect the sales contribution of HVAC system for sedans to increase further which may compress the Company's gross profit margin during 2014-2016. Net profit of the Company is expected to increase stably, up 11% YoY, 10% YoY and 9% YoY during 2014-2016, respectively. z Upgrade to “Accumulate” Rating. Currently, the Company valuation is lower than its peers. In addition, we expect the profitability of the Company to stabilize and net profit to grow stably. Therefore, we upgrade the Company’s rating to “Accumulate” and maintain its TP of HKD1.00, representing 9.4x 14PE, 8.5x 15PE, 0.76x 14PB and 0.73x 15PB. z 公司2014-2016年的营业收入将持续快速提高。2013年公司的销售收入大幅提高23.5%，主要因为公司获得现有客户的轿车空调系统的订单，以及新客户的订单。我们预计公司仍将不断提高其在现有客户的渗透率和获得新客户的订单，其销售收入仍将持续快速增长，在2014-2016年同比增长19%、16%和14%。 z 公司的毛利率将持续下滑，而净利润则稳定增长。2013年公司的毛利大幅下滑3.1个百分点到23.3%，主要是因为竞争激烈、人力成本提高和毛利率较低的轿车空调销量占比提高。我们预计在2014-2016年随着轿车空调系统的销售占比的不断提高，其毛利率仍将继续受压。公司净利润在2014-2016年则稳定增长，同比提高11%、10%和9%。 z 上调到“收集”评级。公司现在的估值低于同业平均水平，而且我们认为公司的盈利率水平正在趋于稳定，净利润将稳定增长，因此我们上调公司评级到“收集”，维持目标价1.00港元，相当于用9.4倍的14年PE、8.5倍的15年PE、0.76倍的14年PB和0.73倍的15年PB。 Rating: Accumulate Upgraded 评级： 收集 (上调)6-18m TP 目标价: HK$1.00Revised from 原目标价: HK$1.00 Share price 股价： HK$0.920 Stock performance 股价表现 0.70 0.75 0.80 0.85 0.90 0.95 1.00 18,000 19,000 20,000 21,000 22,000 23,000 24,000 25,000 May-13Jul-13Sep-13Nov-13Jan-14Mar-14HK$HSIXiezhong Change in Share Price 股价变动 1 M 1个月 3 M 3个月 1 Y 1年 Abs. % 绝对变动 % 7.0 0.0 0.2 Rel. % to HS index 相对恒指变动 % 10.2 0.1 4.8 Avg. share price(HK$) 平均股价（港元） 0.9 0.9 0.9 Source: Bloomberg, Guotai Junan International. Year End 年结 Turnover 收入 Net Profit 股东净利 EPS 每股净利 EPS每股净利变动PER市盈率BPS每股净资产PBR市净率DPS 每股股息 Yield 股息率 ROE净资产收益率12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) (△%) (x) (RMB) (x) (RMB) (%) (%)2012A 590 68 0.095 (33.6)7.8 0.939 0.8 0.032 4.5 10.5 2013A 728 59 0.074 (22.7)10.1 0.987 0.8 0.028 3.9 7.6 2014F 868 66 0.082 11.3 8.6 1.009 0.7 0.019 2.6 8.2 2015F 1,006 72 0.090 10.3 7.8 1.061 0.7 0.021 2.9 8.7 2016F 1,145 79 0.098 8.9 7.2 1.121 0.6 0.023 3.2 9.0 Shares in issue (m) 总股数 (m) 800.0 Major shareholder 大股东 Chen Hao 30.0%Market cap. (HK$ m) 市值 (HK$ m) 736.0 Free float (%) 自由流通比率 (%)