巩固网络游戏平台的领导位置,维持“买入”

GTJA Research 国泰君安研究 Tencent 腾讯控股 (00700 HK) Company Report See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 8 Company Report: Tencent (00700 HK) 中文版 Ricky Lai 黎柏坚公司报告：腾讯控股 (00700 HK) Chinese version +852 2509 2603ricky.lai@gtjas.com.hk 19 May 2014 Leading Online Game Platform Consolidated, Maintain “Buy” 巩固网络游戏平台的领导位置，维持“买入”z 1Q14 results were better than expectations, which was due to higher than expected revenue contributions from game business, disposal gains of the Company’s e-commerce platforms and equity interests in ChinaVision Media Group Ltd. (001060 HK) and better than expected profit margins. z FY14-16 VAS revenue is revised upwards by 1.7%/2.5%/4.6%, due to the introduction of new game titles and the acquisitions of stakes in third party developers. Mobile game revenue tripled to RMB1.8 billion qoq. z Higher than expected Weixin user base. Weixin users reached 400 million thanks to the success of marketing campaigns and the introduction of a variety of services. We expect Wexin could acquire overseas users through introducing internationally recognized game titles such as Candy Crush Saga. z We maintain the investment rating of “Buy”. Due to the adjustments of VAS and advertising revenue estimations, FY14-16 net profit is revised upwards by 4.9%/10.8%. Shares were split from 1-to-5 in May 2014. The TP is revised upwards 3.0% from HKD134.00 to HKD138.00. The new TP represents 42.6x FY14 PER, 32.9x FY15 PER, 27.7x FY16 PER and 1.30 FY13-16 PEG. We maintain the investment rating of “Buy”, based on the Company’s successful expansion strategy, stronger social networking user base and new game titles. z 14财年第1季度业绩好于预期，这是由于好于预期的游戏业务收入贡献、出售文化中国传播集团(001060 HK)的股本权益及电子商务平台、及好于预期的利润率。 z 分别上调14-16财年增值服务收入1.7%/2.5%/4.6%，因由于引进更多新游戏及收购第三方开发商的股权。移动游戏收入贡献按季增长3倍至人民币18亿元。 z 好于预期的微信用户数。微信用户达4亿户，因营销活动的成功及引进各种服务。相信微信可通过引入国际知名游戏如Candy Crush Saga，以吸纳海外用戸。 z 维持公司的投资评级为“买入”。由于增值服务和广告收入预测的调整，分别上调14-16财年净利润3.9%/2.2%/1.6%。股份在2014年5月份1拆5。目标价从134.00港元上调3%至138.00港元。新目标价相当于42.6倍14年市盈率、32.9倍15年市盈率、27.7倍16年市盈率及13-16财年PEG为1.30。基于公司成功的扩展策略、强大的社交网络用户群和新游戏的推出，我们维持“买入”的投资评级。 Rating: Buy Maintained 评级： 买入 (维持)6-18m TP 目标价: HK$138.00Revised from 原目标价: HK$134.00 Share price 股价： HK$106.500 Stock performance 股价表现 (40.0)(20.0)0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 Jan -00Aug -13No v-13Feb-14May-14% of returnHSI Ind exTencent Change in Share Price 股价变动 1 M 1个月 3 M 3个月 1 Y 1年Abs. % 绝对变动 % 1.3 (8.2)82.2Rel. % to HS index 相对恒指变动 % 1.5 (8.4)83.8Avg. share price(HK$) 平均股价（港元） 466.4 537.2435.6Source: Bloomberg, Guotai Junan International. Year End 年结 Turnover 收入 Net Profit 股东净利 EPS 每股净利 EPS每股净利变动PER市盈率BPS每股净资产PBR市净率DPS 每股股息 Yield 股息率 ROE净资产收益率12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) (△%) (x) (RMB) (x) (RMB) (%) (%)2012A 43,893 12,732 1.393 24.2 61.54.519 18.4 0.121 0.1 36.5 2013A 60,437 15,502 1.692 21.5 49.16.326 13.1 0.160 0.2 31.2 2014F 79,146 23,297 2.492 47.3 32.97.925 10.3 0.262 0.3 35.3 2015F 88,669 30,348 3.231 29.6 25.49.318 8.8 0.362 0.4 37.6 2016F 107,739 36,272 3.842 18.9 21.310.699 7.7 0.446 0.5 38.5 Shares in issue (m) 总股数 (m) 9,328.4 Major shareholder 大股东 Naspers Ltd 34.0%Market cap. (HK$ m) 市值 (HK$ m) 993,474.6 Free float (%) 自由流通比率 (%) 66.03 month average vol. 3个月平均成交股数 (‘000) 7,909.7 FY14 Net gearing (%) FY14净负债/股东资金 (%) Net Cash52 Weeks high/low (HK$) 52周高/低 635.000/106.500 FY13-16 PEG (x) 1.0 Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International. 19 May 2014 Tencent 腾讯控股 (00700 HK) Company Report 请见尾页免责声明 Page 2 of 8 14财年第1季度业绩分析 14财年第1季度业绩好于市场预期33.7%，这是由于好于预期的游戏业务收入贡献、出售文化中国传播集团的股本权益及电子商务平台、及好于预期的利润率。剔除非经常性收益，14财年第1季度的净利润同比增长28.6%，仍然高于预期。 表-1：腾讯控股14财年第1季度损益表 人民币（百万元） 1Q141Q13 同比评论总收入 18.4 13.5 36.3% -增值服务 14.4 10.7 35.1% 强劲的增长是由于移动游戏及社交网络平台按条销售收入的贡献增加 -在线广告 1.2 0.9 38.5% 受社交网络效果广告及网络视频广告的推动 -电子商务 2.5 1.9 31.9% -其它 0.3 0.1 141.5% 收入成本 (7.8) (6.0) 30.0% 毛利润 10.6 7.6 39.5% 利息收入 0.4 0.3