中国神华 (01088 HK):1季度业绩符合预期,维持“买入”

GTJA Research 国泰君安研究 China Shenhua Energy 中国神华 (01088 HK) Company Report See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 9 Company Report: China Shenhua Energy (01088 HK) 中文版 Leo Wu 吴逸超公司报告：中国神华 (01088 HK) Chinese version +86 755 23976871wuyichao@gtjas.com 8 May 2014 1Q14 Results In-Line, Maintain "Buy" 1季度业绩符合预期，维持“买入” z China Shenhua’s 1Q14 net profit was in-line with expectation. Commercial coal production remained flat YoY, ASP fell 10% YoY and unit production cost of self-produced coal increased by 4.5% YoY, showing the downturn of coal business continued. Power sales volume increased by 2.1% YoY, average on-grid tariff fell 1.0% YoY while unit cost power sold dropped by 7.7% YoY, resulting in 12.2% increase of unit gross margin of power sold, which partially offset the fallback of the coal business. z The maintenance of Daqin railway caused sharp decline of the coal inventory of Bohai rim ports in April (from 20Mt at end Mar. to 15Mt at end Apr., down 25%), which provided some support to the domestic coastal thermal coal market. Coal consumption of major coastal power plants in April increased YoY by 3.9%. The YoY decrease of overseas coal import volumes in Feb. and Mar. as well as the coal production reduction in Inner Mongolia in Mar. both contributed to mitigate the oversupply problem of the thermal coal market. Due to the low inventory level of Bohai rim ports by the end of April, China Shenhua decided to reduce its spot coal price discount by RMB5/t starting May for seaborne 5,500Kcal thermal coal. z EPS estimates for FY14/15 were revised down by 5.0%/7.1% as we adopted new coal price assumptions (RMB550/575t for QHD5,500Kcal in 2014/2015). Coal production assumptions in FY14-15 were also cut by 2.0% and 2.8% respectively to reflect the slow coal demand growth in China. Maintain "Buy" rating while revise down TP to HK$27.50. z 中国神华1季度净利润符合预期。商品煤产量同比持平，平均售价同比跌10%且单位自产煤生产成本同比增4.5%，显示煤炭业务的低迷持续。售电量同比增2.1%，平均电价同比跌1.0%，但单位售电成本同比降7.7%，使单位售电毛利同比增12%，部分抵消了煤炭业务的倒退。 z 大秦线的检修使4月份环渤海港口的煤炭库存急速下降（由3月底的2,000万吨降至4月底的1,500万吨，降25%），为国内沿海动力煤市场提供了一些支撑。4月份沿海主要电厂煤炭消耗同比增加了3.9%。2月和3月进口煤量的同比下跌以及3月份内蒙古煤炭产量的同比下降均对动力煤市场供应过剩的缓解产生了贡献。由于4月末环渤海港口的低库存水平，中国神华决定将其5,500大卡动力煤现货的优惠从5月起减少5元/吨。 z 14/15财年的EPS预测调降5.0%/7.1%，以反映我们采纳了新的煤价假设（秦皇岛5,500大卡2014/15年分别为550/575元/吨）。14-15财年的煤炭产量假设也分别下调了2.0%和2.8%以反映中国缓慢的煤炭需求增速。维持“买入”评级但调降目标价至27.50港元。Rating:  BuyMaintained Rating: Buy Maintained 评级： 买入 (维持)6-18m TP 目标价: HK$27.50Revised from 原目标价: HK$30.80 Share price 股价： HK$20.800 Stock performance 股价表现 Change in Share Price 股价变动 1 M 1个月 3 M 3个月 1 Y 1年 Abs. % 绝对变动 % (8.2) (1.2) (23.5) Rel. % to HS index 相对恒指变动 % (6.2) (5.4) (24.3) Avg. share price(HK$) 平均股价（港元） 21.8 21.2 23.0 Source: Bloomberg, Guotai Junan International. Year End 年结 Turnover 收入 Net Profit 股东净利 EPS 每股净利 EPS每股净利变动PER市盈率BPS每股净资产PBR市净率DPS 每股股息 Yield 股息率 ROE净资产收益率12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) (△%) (x) (RMB) (x) (RMB) (%) (%)2012A 250,260 48,858 2.456 7.0 6.8 12.901 1.3 0.960 5.7 20.3 2013A 283,797 45,079 2.266 (7.7)7.2 13.922 1.2 0.910 5.6 16.9 2014F 286,443 42,195 2.121 (6.4)7.6 15.133 1.1 0.849 5.2 14.6 2015F 319,253 43,768 2.201 3.7 7.4 16.485 1.0 0.880 5.4 13.9 2016F 345,426 47,540 2.390 8.6 6.8 17.995 0.9 0.956 5.9 13.9 Shares in issue (m) 总股数 (m) 19,889.6 Major shareholder 大股东 Shenhua Group 73.0 %Market cap. (HK$ m) 市值 (HK$ m) 413,704.1 Free float (%) 自由流通比率 (%) 17.0 3 month average vol. 3个月平均成交股数 (‘000) 15,958.6 FY14 Net gearing (%) FY14净负债/股东资金 (%) 7.2 52 Weeks high/low (HK$) 52周高/低 28.200/18.100 FY14 Est. NAV (HK$) FY14每股估值（港元） 33.0 Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International. (35.0)(30.0)(25.0)(20.0)(15.0)(10.0)(5.0)0.0 5.0 10.0 May-13Aug -13Oct-13Jan -14Ap r-14% of returnHSI IndexChina Shenhua Energy - H 8 May 2014 China Shenhua Energy 中国神华 (01088 HK) Company Report See the last page for disclaimer Page 2 of 9 中国神华("公司")14年1季度净利润符合预期。14年1季度净利同比跌8.2% (重述口径)，相当于全年预测的26.3%，符合预期。商品煤产量同比持平，平均售价同比跌10%且单位自产煤生产成本同比增4.5%，显示煤炭业务的低迷持续。售电量同比增2.1%，平均电价同比跌1.0%，但单位售电成本同比降7.7%，使单位售电毛利同比增12.2%，部分抵消了煤炭业务的倒退。 表-1: 14年1季度业绩回顾 1Q2013 1Q2014同比/百