2季度投资策略：斗转星移,择时重于选股

Apr 1, 2014 CMS(HK) 2Q Strategy Conference Call Minutes China Merchants Securities (Hong Kong) Hong Kong Equity Research Strategy Team 1 2Q Strategy: Pick the right sectors at the right time Strategy View 1. HK market may see double dip in 2Q The market correction this time is a reshuffle among sectors. There was no capital outflow but funds are reallocated from emerging sectors to traditional sectors. As we suggested in our annual report, 2Q is a juncture of a number of risk factors such as economic slow-down, regional debt crisis and emerging market instability. Thus 2Q may witness another downward correction for HK market. There is a high chance that this pullback could involve large capital outflow and retreat of the whole market. 2. Pace of style rotation will accelerate from April to July Currently the cyclicals have low valuation and rebounded with expectation for policy loosening. That said, economy continues to trend down, and no strong policy has been carried out yet. Thus the rebound will have limited upside. When the rebound of blue-chips comes close to its end in April, profit taking will weigh heavily on stock prices. On the other hand, emerging sectors may continue to correct throughout 2Q, and trend lower after each round of rebound, as profit taking and destocking will hold down each rebound. The market could bottom around May to June, while a gradual recovery could take place in June to July. 3. Our strategy: switch from emerging sectors to bluechips in early April  taking profit from emerging sectors on potential rally towards the end of April  buy bluechips on-dip at the end of 2Q  add emerging sectors at the beginning of 3Q We recommend to reallocate funds from over-weighted emerging sectors to underweighted cyclicals from late March to early April, and take profit from emerging sectors on rally in April. When market bottoms in May or June, add positions on bluechips to normal or overweight. After the market bottoms out in July, reduce positions on bluechips and add back emerging sectors. Timing is more important in 2Q than stock-picking. We recommend to reduce overall positions, lock in profit on emerging sectors, take a balanced strategy, buy low valuation bluechips as a defensive strategy. Sell on rally to reduce TMT and Macau gaming, buy on dip large Chinese banks, constructions, IPPs, automobile, home appliance, cements, stock picking healthcare, new energy, leaders of environmental protection and food & beverage. Stay away from properties, as the potential rebound could be short-lived. Sector Views Oil and gas: PetroChina (857 HK), CNOOC (883 HK) and Sinopec (386 HK) have low valuations and are our top picks. Among oilfield service we like Anton (3337 HK). Electronic hardware: Our top picks are previous laggards Truly (732 HK) and Lenovo (992 HK). We continue to like TCL Communication (2618 HK) and Coolpad (2369 HK). Healthcare: Results so far are largely in-line with our expectation, and we recommend buy-on-dip after correction. Top picks are Phoenix (1515 HK), Essex Bio (1061 HK), Dawnrays (2348 HK), Sihuan Pharm (460 HK), Sino Biopharm (1177 HK) and CSPC (1093 HK). Maintain Overweight. New energy: Maintain our preference on wind power upstream and solar downstream, our top picks are China Windpower (182 HK) and Singyes (750 HK). TMT: Sector fundamental is solid. We like Kingsoft (3888 HK) and Wisdom (1661 HK). We recommend Buy after potential correction. Non-ferrous Metals: No big opportunities for the sector. We continue to like China Hongqiao (1378 HK). Machinery: Subsector such as forklift could benefit from logistics boom, and we recommend China Lonking (3339 HK). Dr. Cliff ZHAO CFA Chief Strategist +852 3189 6126 wenlizhao@cmschina.com.cn Zhizhong CHEN +86 755 8307 4302 chenzz@cmschina.com.cn Zichen XU +852 3189 6395 xuzc@cmschina.com.hk Related Research 1. HK Market Strategy Bi-weekly – Vol. 6 - A preview for style rotation, 2014-3-26 2. HK Market Strategy Bi-weekly Vol. 05 -- More submerged reefs are waiting ahead, 2014-3-18 3. HK Market Strategy Bi-weekly Vol. 04 -- Time to Switch the Themes? Not yet, 2014-2-25 4. HK Market Strategy Bi-weekly Vol. 03 -- The money flow determines the market’s future, 2014-2-12 5. HK Market Strategy Bi-weekly Vol. 02 -- Keep Distance from the Tide, 2014-1-27 6. HK Market Strategy Bi-weekly Vol. 01 -- The “January Effect” could not be counted on this time, 2014-1-14 7. HK Market Thematic Report -- 2014 Internet and Technology: Pick The Right Time And The Right Stocks, 2014-1-27 2014年4月1日 招商香港2季度投资策略电话会议纪要 招商证券（香港）有限公司 证券研究部 策略团队 2 2季度投资策略：斗转星移，择时重于选股 策略观点： 1. 港股市场在2季度还有二次探底的可能 本次的市场调整属于存量调整，资金没有大幅外流，而是从新兴板块转移到传统板块。但是如同我们年报中所提示的，2季度是一个风险汇集的时间点，经济下行、债务问题爆发、外围市场动荡的可能性很大。因此港股市场在2季度还有二次调整的可能。而这次调整有很大机会是增量调整