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莫斯利安山东市场成功导入,证明全国化基本无障碍

光明乳业,6005972013-11-26邢庭志光大证券从***
莫斯利安山东市场成功导入,证明全国化基本无障碍

ᭀ䇋খ䯙᳔ৢϔ义⡍߿ໄᯢ -1- 䆕ࠌⷨお᡹ਞ ޙ߃وٴ үރвЎͣ9.ͤ டռ஢ݪ ୭ङݸޯׁԖ֡ҵރҴͧ੩جԄۉ֪А٠ً،Ӯݯ਎ ҷ՚फ़۶ ᲕᲕ⮘⮘䁱㚋㯚㏜➓㩞㩞Ⰼⱁ゗㬱⧂巛䐶Ⱜ ㆝㠻㸳㗨⮘䁱㑬⺃㘘㚋㯚㏜➓䊻㩞Ⰼイ㚰⭥㬱⧂㤊㌗᷍䔀ⳤ㑬㩞Ⰼⱁ゗㬱⧂巛ⱁ゗䐶Ⱜ᷍㸳㗨ⷝヂⰉ⭹㋕大㚋㯚㏜➓ⰵ㾱䄖⪌㵔㠘㏁ⷒ(祝)⭥⮀ⶓ᷍㋕大⺃㘘㠟ᆈ⧄㸣㰂㚭⭥䱩㡑ⰵ㾱䄖(하)䎚ⷒ(祝)⭥䐹⹚᱄ ᲕᲕ㚋㚋㯚㏜➓㩞Ⰼ㬱⧂⧪⹇⭝㧌᷍䐅㘘㦌⺛鼻〚⡟㸿䍰➎㚋㯚㏜➓䊻黹Ⰼ㬱⧂⭥⧪⹇䄲㹄䇚䐤䄪᷍ⱙ㡅䊻㶃⤛㬱⧂䅁(祭)⡙ⶕ䐧黹Ⰼ⧪⹇⭥㣒㑇᱄⪴㸳㗨ⰵ㩞Ⰼ㬱⧂⭥⮘䁱㎕㋕᷍ⶤ㬱⧂㰅㦜⿚㬨䄵⨖⪯㼜Ⳳ䍝䑘⭝᷍⭌㚋㯚㏜➓㑝大⭥㋻ⶱ䎞䊻㵧Ⱀ㡅㼜Ⳳ㦛㳆䄵⮄⫙㘇㌍㯺㎊䍦᱄䄵㬵䅜㑇Ⱙ䔏⫔⭥⫔㧔ⳃ㸋㏞᷍㡅㠞㉚㗠䊣600-700㳂/䊣⤃䄵㗠䊣100-200㳂⿘⡩㉙ⰵ䋗㯺㌍㯺䋗⧅᷍䑑ᄊᄢ㆝㲹㔹㯶⭥⺇㚄᱄ 㚠㣑㩞Ⰼ㬱⧂⭥㦌㛋⺇㚄7000-8000㶓᷍㣳⧫㻷100%䄵㩰⭥䋗⧅㲍㬧᱄⭌㬖カ㩰䎃䄜㬱⧂⭥㤟⭡⫏ᄍ⤦ⶶⶶ12月㬝᷍䄵イ㚰㸋㏞᷍⺛カ㾮㕕⧂㆙㧌⤜䔄1㛋᷍㦌⺛㾵㕕⧂㆙㧌⤜䔄1䊣᷍ⷝⱁ⭥⪌㵔䐶Ⱜ䄓⪇䇻⨖⪯ⶓⶨ䐱᱄㸳㗨㦰㸋䎃⨅⳷㯖㘘㚋㯚㏜➓䇱⹊ⷙ(金)䇱㿉㤔᷍㡅⥏䅍鼻⭥㋻ⶱ䇦㬧䊻⤜㵍㤙䈓⭥㬽⿗䇎⧭Ⱙ㬨㏁㯧⭥᱄ 㚠㣑㚋㯚㏜➓㎕䓵㦬㋻䍝⡩16%⭥黹Ⰼ⭥㬶㧌䍝⡩䊝70%᷍ⱙ㎕䓵㦬㋻䍝⡩84%⭥㶃⤛㬱⧂⭥㬶㧌䍝⡩㆗30%᷍㸳㗨㋕大㶃⤛㬱⧂㤟⭡㎊䍦㻣⭥㼛㬼⤜ⰰ⧍䊅㠻᱄ Ვ⥛㚽㠠(마)䇱㰚⿛巛᷍㋕大㚋㯚㏜➓㼛㬼⭥ゴ㯺⡍ⳃ 㰇䓦㩰乙㕎㣦⹅⧈⭥䑑ᄊ㵗⥛᷍㚋㯚㏜➓⥛㚽㠠(마)䄲(가)䇱㰚⿛巛᱄ⷚ(資)㸳㗨⮈齊⮘䁱᷍11䊣➓⿶㬱⧂⤠⳷(가)㼛㩭⭥㚤〖㑠⿘⡩䋗⧅1⡗᱄㸳㗨䊅ェ⹌㯟⭒㣑⥛㚽4-4.5䄻/䊣᷉㛋鼻⥛㚽54䄻᷊᷍㘘㛋䊅ェ5䄻/䊣᷉㛋鼻⥛㚽60䄻᷊᱄ Ვ⹪ゼ⮘䎜䈌〚⡟㘇㸿⹹᷍㣠㑳ᄍ䅊㕓㧌 ㆝㠻⹌㯟⹪ゼ䅓㚔㾊⳨〚⡟㘇⪌㸦⫔⮙᷍㸳㗨㦰㸋⹌㯟(가)䇋巛⹽㏎⥄⤜。㬽⭞㦯工䇑㼍᷍⹌㯟〚⡟㘇㑝大᷍⫎㩒㳂⹊ゴ⤷〛。᱄⤯㋝㘘㛋80%䄵㩰⭥ⷀ⧪⧅᷍㸳㗨㦰㸋ⷙ䈉㘘㛋40-50⡗⹡䐖ᇟ㸋己㏎᷍⭒㣑⺃㘘㼁ⰵ䇻㘘㛋⹡䐖㆗27⡗᷍㣠㑳ᄍ䅊㕓㧌᷍Ⱝ㠻㚠⢋ゼ27䊋᱄ 䄖ら䊅⥃巛⹡䐖䐙⢋ 䐙⢋ 20112012 2013E2014E 2015E 䇋䄖㬶㧌᷉➺㶓䊋᷊ 11,78913,775 15,97419,119 22,850 䇋䄖㬶㧌䋗⧅㔫 23.16%16.85% 15.97%19.69% 19.52% (주)㏜㧔᷉➺㶓䊋᷊ 238311 518967 1,445 (주)㏜㧔䋗⧅㔫 22.36%30.89% 66.51%86.59% 49.38% EPS᷉䊋᷊ 0.190.25 0.420.79 1.18 ROE᷉⺊㭕㚙⹌㯟)᷉㲐⡂᷊ 9.70%7.76% 12.02%19.67% 25.41% P/E 10983 5027 18 P/B 116 65 5 аҴͣঢܕͤ ӹџڢ/ऩ߶џ͹21.19/27ҫ ஒ͹ߊ߶ऩ6߃З ٣߅Ӣ ںڈ愜 (ۼЏચа৚՚͹S0930513030001) 22169078 xingtz@ebscn.com ৊ॸъ Өோ 021-22169108 liuyan@ebscn.com ܨݤ֪٠ ߎਁۈ(ьਁ)͹ 12.24 ١қۈ(ьҫ)͹259.47 Ѻ߂وٴ▲/௤߂(ҫ)͹8.33/26.10 ଎3۴ࣤ͹݅߃66.04% ৐ў਽ࢻ(اٴ▁) -10%40%90%140%190%11-12 02-13 05-13 08-13ܝᯢчϮ≾⏅300 ݗ࣮਽ࢻ% 䄜⷗䊣 㧞⷗䊣 㬏ⱟ⷗䊣 㼁ⰵ -4.57 11.90 133.50 ㉙ⰵ -5.06 16.35 142.43 ࣼһऒ۶ 㬶㧌ゴ㯺䋗⧅᷍㚋㯚㏜➓䇐㏜⹒㻸⧷㿙㬮⳦ ··········································· 2013-10-28 㰂㚭巛㡅㰜⭮㸣㧊㠘㒛㵘䇦㬧䑑⤞㳂㪞 ··········································· 2013-10-09 㚋㯚㏜➓䅞㒍⧄㸣㰂㚭⮀ⶓ㾱䄖ⷒ(祝) ··········································· 2013-09-26 wwwww1 ҰޢгЏ ᭀ䇋খ䯙᳔ৢϔ义⡍߿ໄᯢ -2- 䆕ࠌⷨお᡹ਞ 0%10%20%30%40%50%201120122013E2014E2015E⍺⥛߽⥛߽↯EBIT⥛⥛߽ޔ䫔ଂ ㏜㧔⢎᷉➺㶓䊋᷊ 2011 20122013E 2014E2015E 䇋䄖㬶㧌 11,789 13,77515,974 19,11922,850 䇋䄖⧪⡟ 7,845 8,93810,115 11,79113,800 䍼(月)巛㲐㼛 300 323351 361368 䇋䄖㯑Ⳳ 64 7380 96114 㼛㬼Ⳳ䇤 3,246 3,8204,503 5,2586,215 ⹽㏎Ⳳ䇤 355 442479 574686 ⤧㹒Ⳳ䇤 47 6549 4753 ⹌䊫ゼ䐖⢅Ⱀ㰑䅇 4 -100 00 㵗䓫㬶䅇 6 50 00 䇋䄖㏜㧔 200 355706 1,3071,939 ㏜㧔䓽ⱏ 240 419743 1,3511,992 㩺㭞⹪Ⰼ㰑䅇 33 2439 73109 ⺊㭕㚙⹌㯟(주)㏜㧔 237.84 311.30518.36 967.231,444.87 䓫⥛⶛䍏⢎᷉➺㶓䊋᷊ 2011 20122013E 2014E2015E 䓽䓫⥛ 7,374 9,3398,673 9,84611,296 㒘Ⱀ䓫⥛ 3,751 4,9624,923 6,4738,296 〖⡳䓫㆑ 1,114 2,3391,738 2,7013,826 ᅮ䄸㾮㆑㦻䓫⥛ 22 120 00 䇇㬶䍫㌏ 1,169 1,3101,617 1,9352,312 䇇㬶㠒(資) 4 245 5464 㡅㰜䇇㬶㌏ 109 58113 135161 ⫇〖 1,099 1,0161,093 1,2771,498 ㋪⹊⨗㬼㵗䓫 0 00 00 ⧷䇱⭞㠻㆑㦻䓫⥛ 0 00 00 ⧅㠻㵗䓫 30 3030 3030 ⹭Ⰹ䓫⥛ 2,482 2,6822,515 2,2802,014 㸿㾯䓫⥛ 287 280266 253240 䓽⶛䍏 4,539 4,9153,912 4,4074,979 㸿㻃⶛䍏 2,684 3,2823,203 3,6384,130 䇱㻃⶛䍏 1,855 1,632708 768848 ⹪Ⰼ㦉䅇 2,835 4,4254,762 5,4396,317 ⹪⡟ 1,049 1,2251,225 1,2251,225 ⹌〞㆑ 731 1,9982,050 2,1472,289 㸕⳷㞅㏜㧔 668 7771,023 1,5322,158 㩺㭞⹪Ⰼ㦉䅇 383 411450 523631 㻷㆑㒘㑠⢎᷉➺㶓䊋᷊ 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E (가)䇋』Ⱀ㻷㆑㒘 89 1,242 602 1,316 1,779 (주)㏜㧔 238 311 518 967 1,445 䍼(月)㲐㼛 300 323 351 361 368 (주)䇋䊬䓫㆑䋗ゴ 673 -441 728 371 468 㡅㰜 -1,122 1,049 -995 -383 -503 㵗䓫』Ⱀ⥛㪛㻷㆑㒘 -931 -910 -10 -4 -5 (주)䓫⡟䐈⨗ -949 -1,014 0 0 0 ⧅㠻㵗䓫⢅鼻 30 30 0 0 0 㡅㰜䓫⥛⢅鼻 -12 75 -10 -4 -5 㦻䓫』Ⱀ㻷㆑㒘 821 893 -1,194 -349 -649 ⹪⡟⢅鼻 0 176 0 0 0 䍏㹒(주)⢅鼻 1,023 -223 -924 60 80 㸿㻃⶛䍏⢅鼻 228 598 -79 435 492 (주)㻷㆑㒘 -21 1,225 -602 963 1,125 䓫㑰㎕䊕ᷛ⺃⫔䐅㦐᱃㩰㬱⹌㯟 0%20%40%60%80%100%0 500 1000 1500 2000 201120122013E2014E2015E⍺߽ޔ_๲䭓⥛⍺߽ޔ๲䭓⥛ 0%5%10%15%20%25%0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 201120122013E2014E2015E䫔ଂᬊܹ_๲䭓⥛䫔ଂᬊܹ๲䭓⥛ 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%201120122013E2014E2015E䌘ᴀಲ᡹⥛ROEROAROICWACC wwwww2 ҰޢгЏ ᭀ䇋খ䯙᳔ৢϔ义⡍߿ໄᯢ -3- 䆕ࠌⷨお᡹ਞ ⹹ポ䐙⢋ 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E ⧪⧅㚽㑇᷉%YoY᷊ 㬶㧌䋗⧅㔫 23.16% 16.85% 15.97% 19.69% 19.52% (주)㏜㧔䋗⧅㔫 22.36% 30.89% 66.51% 86.59% 49.38% EBITDAEBITDA䋗⧅㔫 14.49% 38.88% 48.03% 54.94% 37.71% EBITEBIT䋗⧅㔫 3.40% 78.29% 78.14% 79.10% 47.21% ⹡䐖䐙⢋ PE 109 83 50 27 18 PB 11 6 6 5 5 EV/EBITDA 46 36 24 15 11 EV/EBIT 103 64 36 19 13 EV/NOPLAT 92 80 42 25 17 EV/Sales 2 2 2 1 1 EV/IC 6 6 6 5 5 䇐㏜㚽㑇᷉%᷊ 㗌㏜㔫 33.45% 35.12% 36.68% 38.33% 39.61% EBITDA㔫 4.57% 5.43% 6.93% 8.97% 10.33% EBIT㔫 2.02% 3.08% 4.73% 7.08% 8.72% 㯑㣑(주)㏜㧔㔫 2.04% 3.04% 4.65% 7.06% 8.72% 㯑水(주)㏜㧔㔫᷉⺊㭕㚙⹌㯟᷊ 2.02% 2.26% 3.24% 5.06% 6.32% ROA 3.67% 3.59% 6.43% 10.56% 13.75% ROE᷉⺊㭕㚙⹌㯟᷊᷉㲐⡂᷊ 9.70% 7.76% 12.02% 19.67% 25.41% (가)䇋㾵ROIC 6.12% 7.28% 13.33% 21.64% 31.66% ⧆䍏㚽㑇 㒘Ⱀ⡩㔫 0.98 1.25 1.63 1.87 2.10 㯺Ⱀ⡩㔫 0.69 1.00 1.27 1.50 1.72 ⺊㭕㚙⹌㯟㦉䅇/䇱㻃䍏㹒 1.32 2.46 6.09 6.40 6.70 䇱㾯䓫⥛/䇱㻃䍏㹒 3.57 5.22 11.50 12.15 12.72 㗠⹪䐙⢋(➕䔏㾣䊅⥃㛋Ⱙ⹪⡟ェ㰄㏛㬘㭞(資)) EPS 0.19 0.25 0.42 0.79 1.18 㗠⹪歹㏜ 0.15 0.18 0.30 0.55 0.82 㗠⹪(가)䇋㻷㆑㒘 0.07 1.01 0.49 1.07 1.45 㗠⹪䓵䇪㻷㆑㒘(FCFF) -0.83 0.14 0.25 0.88 1.22 㗠⹪(주)䓫⥛ 2.00 3.28 3.52 4.01 4.64 㗠⹪㼛㬼㬶㧌 9.62 11.24 13.04 15.61 18.65 䓫㑰㎕䊕ᷛ⺃⫔䐅㦐᱃㩰㬱⹌㯟 wwwww3 ҰޢгЏ ᭀ䇋খ䯙᳔ৢϔ义⡍߿ໄᯢ -4- 䆕ࠌⷨお᡹ਞ ⳷㹗㬇㪚㘘⶛䋑䓝⡙⡟⡉⷇䄵ゑ䓌㾕⡟⡉⷇⭥㰚䇱䁱(一)⳷㹗㬇〓⹅䔘㦬䊒䊻⪬⡄䐅᷍⡟䁱(一)⡉⷇䐱⹹䇻㦯工ⳃ㾱㩭〓䐅㦐㰚ⳃ⢎⭥⹼⮄㉚㧈㬖ⳕ䇔⳷㹗㦬䊒⭥⷗㦬⹼⮄᱄⶛䋑䓝⡙⡟⡉⷇⭥⳷㹗㬇〒㦂⡉⨋⭥㠡㝱䅓㯹⟝㎉䁱(一)⭥䐫㑠巛䓝㦘㾵᱃㋮黃⭥ⳕ㎂᱃(하)䎚㾵䅓㯹䄵ゑ⺃⫔䐅㦐⹪⳾䇱㻿⹌㯟⭥䎜㳆㬶䅇᱄㰚䇱䁱(一)⳷㹗㬇〓⹅䔘㦬䊒⡄䐅㰜㗨⡉⨋⭥㦯工䄜⤠⳷⤜䋙䈌᷍⤜䈌᷍䄓ᄐ⤜。䈌⡟⡉⷇䐱(祭)㳆⭥㵧プ䅃