东方海外国际：新船的运营将降低每箱成本,维持“买入“评级

Please see important notice on the last page. Company Report Orient Overseas (316HK) OOIL’s FY13 results were slightly better than expectation with a net profit of US$47.1 mn, down 84% YoY, and EPS of US 0.075 cents, higher than the consensus of 21%. OOIL’s shipping revenue, shipping volume, and freight rate were US$5.6 bn (-4.9% YoY), 5.3mn TEUs (+1.5% YoY), and US$1,060/TEU (-6.3% YoY) respectively, +0.3%/-1.6%/+1.2% compared with our estimates. We downgrade 2014E-2015E EPS estimates from US$0.23/0.41 to US$0.21/0.37 for. Considering OOIL’s lower debt/asset ratios as well as low valuations (one of the lowest in the sector), we maintain our 12-month TP of HK$51.0, based on industry average of 0.9x 2014E P/B. Reiterate “BUY”. Bigger ships driving down unit cost. In 2007 and 2011, OOIL ordered 10 vessels of 13,208TEU and 6 vessels of 8,888/TEU from Samsung Heavy Industries and Hudong Zhonghua Shipbuilding. 10 vessels were delivered by OOIL in 2013, and the remaining six vessels will be delivered in 2014-2015. Vessels of 13,208TEU are currently the largest containerships operated by OOIL. Cost advantage has become a keyword for competitiveness in the industry, and mega ships possess unit cost advantage. Unit operational cost of a vessel of 8,000TEU is 10%-12% lower than 5,000-6,000 TEU, while that of 18,000TEU is 35% lower than that of 13,100TEU. Management expects that OOIL will order larger ships to remain competitive on Asia-Europe lanes over the next 2 years. We expect newbuilding deployment to boost OOIL’s vessel utilization by 15%-20%, and reduce cost/TEU by 10%-12%. 2014 containerships market outlook: We forecast the supply-demand imbalance will continue to exist in 2014, and intensive delivery of large vessels will impede industry recovery. Clarkson forecasts 2014 demand growth of containerships to be 6%, supply growth to be 7%, and the capacity of 8,000+TEU to increase 20.4%. Given the anticipated low growth in container demand, the industry is required to focus on yield management, cost efficiency and service quality. OOIL will continue to focus on cost efficiency by means of newbuildings deployment on core lanes and service coverage improvement by strengthening alliances. We forecast 2014 OOIL’s shipping revenue, shipping volume, and freight rate will increase 5.9%, 4.7%, and 1.2% YoY respectively. Financials US$ mn 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E Revenue 6,459 6,232 6,566 7,142 7,707 Growth (%) 7% -4% 5% 9% 8% Net income 296 46 134 230 352 Growth (%) 63% -84% 186% 72% 53% EPS (US$) 0.47 0.08 0.21 0.37 0.56 DPS (US$) 0.05 0.07 0.05 0.07 0.13 P/E (x) 9.8 62.1 21.8 12.7 8.3 P/B (x) 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 ROE (%) 6.8% 1.1% 3.0% 4.9% 7.3% Source: Company data, CMS (HK) estimate Buy (Previous: Buy) Target Price：HK$ 51.00 Current price：HK$36.15 China Merchants Securities (HK) Kate Li +86-755-83271060 liyiqian@cmschina.com.cn 14 Mar 2014 Key data HSI Index 21756.08 HSCEI Index 9315.82 S/O(mn) 625.79 S/O (HK)(mn) 625.79 Mkt cap (HK$) (mn) 22873 BVPS(US$) 7.14 Major shareholder Holding (%) Tung Chee Hwa 68.1 Free float 31.9 Industry Marine Share performance % 1m 6m 12m Absolute return -2 -25 -44 Relative return -1 -25 -44 Source: Bloomberg Related research -60-40-20020Mar/13Jul/13Nov/13(%)316.HKNewbuilding deployment to reduce unit cost, reiterate “Buy” 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 公司报告 东方海外国际(316.HK) 公司2013年全年业绩略微高于市场的预期，归属股东的净利润同比大幅下跌84%至0.47亿美元，每股基本盈利是0.075美分，高出市场预测值21%。公司全年航运收入、总载货量以及单箱运费分别为56.1亿美元，529.4万TEU以及1,060美元，同比变化分别是-4.9%/1.5%/-6.3%，与我们的预期相差0.3%/-1.6%/1.2%。我们微调其2014-2015年盈利预测，从每股基本盈利0.23/0.41美元下调至0.21/0.37美元。考虑到公司资产负债率较低以及目前估值属于行业最低，我们维持12个月目标价51.0港元不变，基于行业平均0.9x2013P/B，维持“买入”评级。 大船降低平均每标箱的成本 公司在2007年和2011年分别在韩国三星重工和沪东中华船厂订购了10艘运力13,208TEU/艘的新船和6艘运力8,888TEU/艘的新船。2013年已交付10艘，余下的6艘将于2014-2015年交付。13,208TEU/艘是公司目前最大容量的集装箱船。集运已进入大船化时代，超级大船以规模效应降低运营成本，8,000TEU船平均每标箱的成本比5,000-6,000TEU船低10%-12%，而1.8万TEU船比13,100TEU船成本低35%。行业的竞争关键词已转向“成本”，运价在成本点附近，相似服务水平下成本低者将成为赢家。管理层表示未来2年公司仍有订造大船计划，以便于在亚欧航线上保持一定的竞争力。我们预计新船的运营将会使公司平均运载力提高15% - 20%，平均每标箱的成本降低10%-12%。 2014年集运展望 我们预计2014年集运业景气度仍将维持弱势，大型运力集中交付延缓了行业复苏。Clarkson预计2014年的供给增速为7.1%，8,000TEU以上运力增速为20.4%，需求增速为6%，略微高于2013年。在预期集运需求增长疲弱的情况下，航运业更需加强成本效益以及提高服务质量。公司一方面依靠大船的投放，降低成本提高效益，另一方面加强联盟合作，进一步深化在几大航线的市场渗透率。我们预计2014年公司在航运收入、总载货量以及单箱运费方面分别同比增长5.9%/4.7%/1.2%。 盈利预测及估值 美元 百万元 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 营业额 6,459 6,232 6,566 7,142 7,707 同比增长（%） 7% -4% 5% 9% 8% 净利润 296 46 134 230 352 同比增长（%） 63% -84% 186% 72% 53% 每股盈利（美元） 0.47 0.08 0.21 0.37 0.56 每股股息（美元） 0.05 0.07 0.05 0.07 0.13 市盈率（x） 9.8 62.1 21.8 12.7 8.3 市净率（x） 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 ROE（%） 6.8% 1.1% 3.0% 4.9% 7.3% 资料来源：公司资料,招商证券（香港）预测买入 (上次：买入) 目标价：HK$ 51.00 现价：HK$36.15 招商证券(香港)研究部 李艺倩 +86-755-83271060 liyiqian@cmschina.com.cn 2014年3月14日 基础数据 恒生指数 21756.08 H股指数 9315.82 总股数（万股） 62579 港股股数（万股） 62579 港股市值（港元百