大昌行集团：大势已去

Company Research For ratings definitions and other important disclosures, refer to the Information Disclosures at the end of this report. 1 2 January 2014 DCH Holdings（1828.HK） NEUTRAL | Target price: HK$ 6.1 Falling tide Auto DCH would be hard hit by the price discount of Japanese autos to boost sales. Segment margin will be squeezed to 2.4% in 2013 and near term recovery is unlikely given the relatively high inventory level of 1.5 months at year end. The focus on mid-high end market and diversification into food/consumer products will lead to slow and steady growth only.  Japanese auto sales recovery at the expense of margin. Japanese cars accounted for around 60% of DCH’s total sales volume. Although DCH’s sales of Japanese brands recovered in 2013, it was mainly driven by deeper price discount to clear its high inventory. As a result, we believe segment margin for DCH’s mainland auto business would be squeezed to 2.4% in 2013E from 3.1% in 2012A. We do not expect segment margin will rebound significantly in the near term given that auto inventory level of DCH remained high at 1.5 months at the year end, roughly the same level in mid-year and higher than the average JV-brand level of 1.29 months as of November 2013.  Mid-high end focus means lower long-term growth. As of 1H13, DCH had a total of 72 4S shops in the mainland. It plans to open 16 new 4S shops, of which 10 for Japanese brands or 8 for mid-end brands. We believe same store sales growth would be low in 2014 following the strong recovery of Japanese brands in 2013. Moreover, 50% of new stores will be for mid-high end brands which are likely to see lower growth compared to luxury stores. We believe this strategy will result in lower long-term growth potential compared to luxury-brand-focused dealers.  Food/consumer products – slow growth and shrinking margin. DCH has diversified its business into food and consumer products. While this business is expected to take up more than 23% of total revenue in 2013E, its sales growth will be only single digit. More importantly, segment margin of this business has been small and is expected to shrink from 3.2% in 2012A to 2.5% in 2013E due to initial overheads of its new logistic facilities.  Low base rebounds. Despite the recovery in Japanese car sales, DCH will be hard hit by shrinking margins. Earnings are expected to plunge 29% to HKD744m in 2013. The 19% and 21% earnings recovery in 2014 and 2015 will be mainly a result of the low base. The HKD1,070m earnings in 2015 are still 19% lower than the HKD1,323m in 2011. Trading at 12X 2014PE, the counter is fairly valued. Maintain Neutral and TP of HK$ 6.1. Financial Summary Year to Dec 2011A 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E Revenue (HKD m) 46,109 48,014 38,936 44,219 50,234 Operating Profit (HKD m) 1,861 1,775 1,168 1,459 1,708 Reported Profit (HKD m) 1,323 1,045 744 885 1,070 Underlying EPS (HKD) 0.72 0.57 0.41 0.48 0.58 DPS (HKD) 0.27 0.21 0.16 0.19 0.23 BVPS (HKD) 4.66 4.89 5.10 5.38 5.72 P/E (x) 7.97 9.99 14.14 11.88 9.83 Dividend Yield (%) 4.71 3.60 2.83 3.37 4.07 P/B (x) 1.23 1.17 1.13 1.07 1.00 Source: Guosen Securities (HK) Analyst John Luo SFC CE No.: AVT 518 00852-2899 8300 John.luo@guosen.com.hk Performance Source: Bloomberg Key Data Price(HK$) 5.74 Shares Outstanding(m)* 1,832 Market Cap. (HK$ m)* 10,516 Free float (%) 29.6 Average Daily Turnover HK$18.5m 52 Week Range 9.25 / 5.55 Controlling Shareholder CITIC Pacific Limited (55.68%) BVPS (HK$) 4.89 Debt ratio (%) 56.2 024681005,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,000HSIDCH Holdings 公司报告 国信证券（香港） 研究报告仅代表分析员个人观点，请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明。 2014年1月2日 大昌行集团（1293.HK） 中性 | 目标价: HK$ 6.1 大势已去 汽车行业 尽管日系车的销量在2013年出现了反弹，但是由于减价加剧以及库存上升，我们预计大昌行的内地汽车销售业务分布溢利率将从去年的3.1%进一步恶化至2.4%，库存仍会处于1.5个月的较高水平。公司的新开门店仍然集中于中高档品牌，这一布局将降低公司汽车业务的长期增长潜力。另外，公司的食物及消费品业务也难以在短期内成为新的增长动力。  虽然日系车销量有所反弹，公司利润率仍在恶化。我们预计日系车占大昌行汽车总销量的60%左右。虽然今年日系车的销量相较于去年出现了反弹，但是由于折扣率和库存水平上升，大昌行并不能明显受益。因此，我们预计大昌行的内地汽车业务的分部溢利率将由2012A的3.1%进一步恶化至2013E的2.4%。我们预计到2013年底，大昌行的汽车平均库存依然维持在1.5个月的较高水平，与年中时相仿，并且高于合资品牌1.29个月的平均水平（2013年11月），因此大昌行的内地汽车销售业务利润率短期内可能难以出现反弹。  新开门店偏向于中高端以及日系品牌。截止至2013年中，大昌行在内地一共有72家4S店，另外有16家新开门店正在筹划。在这16家新开门店中，10家是日系品牌，8家是中高档品牌。我们认为，日系品牌在2014年的销量不会有明显增长，因此大昌行的同店销售增速可能较低。另外，由于公司一半的新开门店都是中高档品牌，这些门店的增长相比于豪华品牌应该会较低。因此大昌行的开店策略将会使公司的长期增长潜力较聚焦豪华品牌的经销商更低。  食品及消费品业务增速正在下降。大昌行正在试图发展事务以及消费品业务来进行多元化。虽然我们预计这一业务今年占总收入的比重超过23%，但收入仅有个位数增长。此外，由于启用新的物流设施带来费用增加，我们预计这一业务的分布利润率将从去年的3.2%下降至2.5%。  预计未来两年低基数的增长。虽然日系车销售有所恢复，大昌行将会受到利润下滑的打击。2013年的纯利预计将会大幅下滑29%至7.44亿港币，2014年和2015年的19%和21%的纯利增长主要是因为基数较低，而2015年10.7亿港币的纯利依然较2011年13.2亿港币的纯利低19%。目前公司估值相当于2014年12X PE，我们认为公司估值公允，维持中性评级以及6.1港元的目标价。 盈利预测 截至31/12 2011A 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E 营业额(港币百万) 46,109 48,014 38,936 44,219 50,234 经营盈利(港币百万) 1,861 1,775 1,168 1,459 1,708 净利润（港币百万） 1,323 1,045 744 885 1,070 每股实际盈利(港币) 0.72 0.57 0.41 0.48 0.58 每股股息(港币) 0.27 0.21 0.16 0.19 0.23 每股账面价值(港币) 4.66 4.89 5.10 5.38 5.72 市盈率(x) 7.97 9.99