First Light Asia
Disclaimer & Disclosures This report must be read with the disclosures in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. Disclosures for companies can be accessed via the hyperlinks to the original published research, which can be found in the title Issuer of report: The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited View HSBC Global Research at: https://www.research.hsbc.com THIS CONTENT MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED TO THE PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA (THE “PRC”) (EXCLUDING SPECIAL ADMINISTRATIVE REGIONS OF HONG KONG AND MACAO) What’s Changed, Research Focus, Today’s Events Ticker Company Rating was CurrencyTarget was EPS '15e EPS '16e Price Price At Close New 601117 CH China National Chemical Engineering Corp Hold - RMB 6.90 - 0.58(CNY) 0.61(CNY) 7.42 25 Nov Down 2686 HK AAG Energy Buy HKD 2.06 4.63 0.04(RMB) 0.09(RMB) 1.47 26 Nov 1836 HK Stella Buy HKD 22.50 22.60 0.17(USD) 0.19(USD) 19.54 26 Nov AXIATA MK Axiata Group Hold MYR 5.70 6.00 0.27 0.30 6.16 26 Nov 716 HK Singamas Container Holdings Hold HKD 0.90 1.10 0.00(USD) 0.00(USD) 0.81 27 Nov UMWH MK UMW Holdings Reduce MYR 6.30 7.40 0.273 0.428 8.20 25 Nov Source: Bloomberg, HSBC estimates Research Focus China Oil Engineering - Buffered by backlog; stimulated by 13th FYP Tingting Si* Despite the weak macro environment, China’s oil engineering service companies have an earnings buffer in their backlog Growth drivers include policies to encourage production of cleaner fuels and support for engineering service exports SEG (Buy, TP HKD8.9) is our preferred play; initiate Hold on China National Chemical Engineering (TP RMB6.9) India e-finance primer - The upcoming revolution Sachin Sheth* Innovative payment systems are core to India’s e-finance revolution; a different approach to that of China Banks, the government, & consumers are the main beneficiaries; cash loses out yielding a huge USD15tn opportunity Private banks are best positioned to leverage new technology; we prefer HDFC Bank, IIB, ICICI, and Yes Bank – all Buys AAG Energy (2686 HK) - Buy: Cut TP to HKD2.06 on gas price re-assessment Thomas Hilboldt* AAG guided that 2016e average gas prices will likely be RMB0.40-0.45/cm lower after the NDRC price policy release This reduces cash flows, earnings and value; we cut 2015-17e forecasts for AAG by 50%, 36%, and 27% Cut TP to HKD2.06, based on mid-2016e DCF (industry standard 10% WACC) (was HKD4.63, on mid-2015e DCF) ASEAN Perspectives - Rising unemployment: How bad will it get? Su Sian Lim 3Q GDP has come in roughly in line with consensus across ASEAN, but growth is slowing in most places Commodity prices have yet to show signs of recovery, but disruptions from El Nino may still be felt in coming months In this edition of ASEAN Perspectives, we look at unemployment trends across the region, consider how much worse they could get and the implications, see page 3 for more 30 November 2015 First Light Asia RESEARCH MARKETING ASIA Ticker Event Rating TargetPrice Ticker EventNI BbgAxiata Group Bhd AXIATA MK Q3 Hold 6.00 6.2 Pending Home Sales MoMUS Oct1.50%GOME Electrical Appliances Holding Ltd 493 HK Q3 Buy 1.52 1.4 Hong Kong Retail Sales Volume Oct -0.5% India GDP 3Q-2015 7.5% Japan Industrial Production-prelim Oct 2.7% Korea Industrial Production Oct 0.5% Source: Bloomberg, HSBC estimates Alfred Chin* Research Marketing +852 2996 6753alfred.k.y.chin@hsbc.com.hk *Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsChina Oil Engineering | India e-finance primer | AAG Energy | ASEAN Perspectives abc RESEARCH MARKETING ASIA 30 November 2015 2 Regional Japan - Jobless rate falls to 20-year lows Izumi Devalier The job market continued to tighten in October, with the unemployment rate falling to 3.1% -- the lowest level in over twenty years True, part of this is due to supply side factors--the retirement of Japan's baby boom gener
