Wheat Outlook

Projected U.S. wheat exports are lowered by 25 million bushels for the second month in a row. U.S. exports for 2015/16 are now forecast at 900 million bushels as a strong U.S. dollar and expanded production of competitor nations’ wheat crops combine to reduce marketing opportunities for U.S. wheat abroad. Ending stocks are increased by 25 million bushels to 875 million and are the largest since the 2009/10 marketing year, when carryout was 976 million bushels. Increased competition in export markets along with expanded domestic stocks put downward pressure on the season-average farm price, lowered 10 cents at the midpoint to $5.00 per bushel. Increased foreign production forecast for 2015/16 and larger beginning stocks boost world wheat supplies sharply this month. This month’s increase in world wheat supplies is larger than the increase in use, boosting projected ending stocks. In contrast to U.S. wheat export prospects, European Union (EU) and Ukrainian exports are on the rise. Wheat Outlook Gary Vocke gvocke@ers.usda.gov Olga Liefert oliefert@ers.usda.gov Jennifer Bond jkbond@ers.usda.gov U.S. Export Prospects, Domestic Prices Lowered as World Wheat Production Rises Economic Research Service Situation and Outlook WHS-15i Sept. 15, 2015 Wheat Chart Gallery will be updated on Sept. 15, 2015. The next release is October 14, 2015. -------------- Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board. Domestic Outlook 2 Wheat Outlook/WHS-15i/September 15, 2015 Economic Research Service, USDA Projected Total Use, Exports Down for 2015/16 At 874 million bushels, ending stocks of wheat for 2015/16 are up 25 million from August and projected to be up 122 million bushels from 2014/15 as total supplies increase more than total use year to year. Total wheat supplies for 2015/16 are unchanged. Total use is projected down 25 million bushels from August as exports are lowered by 25 million bushels, for the second subsequent month, to 900 million. Winter Wheat Production Estimates The current, survey-based forecast of 2015 winter wheat production, at 1,438 million bushels, is unchanged from August, but up 60 million bushels from 2014. Expected planted and harvested areas are unchanged from August. Expected harvested area is 33.3 million acres, up 1.0 million acres from last year as a higher harvest-to-planted ratio offset a lower planted area. The U.S. winter wheat yield is forecast at 43.2 bushels per acre, unchanged from August, but up 0.6 bushels from the previous year. Hard red winter (HRW) production is forecast at 856 million bushels, unchanged from August but up 118 million bushels from a year ago due to an anticipated increase in harvested area and higher yields. Planted and harvested areas are unchanged from August. Forecast planted area, harvested area, and yield and year-to-year changes for 2015 from 2014 are 29.6 million acres, down 0.9 million acres; 23.6 million acres, up 1.7 million acres; and 36.3 bushels per acre, up 2.6 bushels per acre, respectively. Soft red winter (SRW) production is forecast at 389 million bushels, unchanged from August and down 66 million bushels from last year. SRW production is forecast smaller than a year ago because of harvested area and a lower yield. Planted and harvested areas are unchanged from August. Forecast planted area, harvested area, and yield and year-to-year changes for 2015 from 2014 are 7.6 million acres, down 0.9 million acres; 6.4 million acres, down 0.7 million acres; and 60.4 bushels per acre, down 3.2 bushels per acre, respectively. White winter wheat production for 2015 is forecast to total 193 million bushels, unchanged from August, but up 9 million bushels from a year ago. Planted and harvested areas are unchanged from August. The planted and harvested areas, production, and yield for white winter wheat were as follows (hard white winter = HWW and soft white winter = SWW): 2015 HWW SWW Planted area (million acres) 0 .364 3.079 Harvested area (million acres) 0.319 2.958 Yield (bushels/acre) 39.2 61.1 Production (million bushels) 12.49 180.88 2014 HWW SWW Planted area (million acres) 0.383 3.047 Harvested area (million acres) 0.325 2.897 Yield (bushels/acre) 35.4 59.6 Production (million bushels) 11.50 172.80 Domestic Outlook 3 Wheat Outlook/WHS-15i/September 15, 2015 Economic Research Service, USDA Spring Wheat Production Estimates Hard red spring (HRS) production is forecast at 576 million bushels, unchanged from August and up 20 million bushels from 2014 with larger harvested area and higher yield year to year. Planted and harvested areas are unchanged from August. Forecast planted area, harvested area, and yield and year-to-year changes for 2015 are, respectively, 12.6 million acres (up 0.4 million), 12.4 million acres, (up 0.4 million), and 46.5 bushels per acre (up 0.2 bushels). White spring production is estimated to total 45.0 mil