USDA Rice Outlook August 14, 2015

The 2015/16 U.S. rice production forecast was lowered 1 percent to 205.0 million cwt due to a lower yield. Production is 7 percent below a year earlier, with crops projected to be smaller in all reported States except Texas. Imports were raised 0.5 million cwt to a record 25.5 million cwt and beginning stocks were revised up 1.5 million cwt to 47.9 million cwt. Total supply is nearly unchanged from the previous forecast. The 2015/16 total use forecast was lowered 4.0 million cwt to 236.0 million cwt, with forecasts for both combined domestic and residual use and for total exports lowered. The reduced total use forecast raised the ending stocks forecast 4.0 million cwt to 42.4 million cwt, 11 percent below a year earlier. The 2015/16 season-average farm price (SAFP) for U.S. long-grain rice was raised 60 cents on both the high and low ends to $11.50-$12.50 per cwt. The 2015/16 U.S. medium- and short-grain SAFP remains projected at $17.80-$18.80, with the California medium- and short-grain SAFP remaining at $20.50-$21.50 per cwt and the Other States 2015/16 medium- and short-grain SAFP remaining at $14.30-$15.30 per cwt. Global rice production for 2015/16 is projected at 478.6 million tons (milled basis), down 1.7 million tons from last month’s forecast but 2.4 million tons larger than a year earlier and the highest on record. Production forecasts were lowered for Argentina, Cuba, Iraq, South Korea, Thailand, Uruguay, the United States, and Venezuela, but raised for Sri Lanka. The 2016 global trade forecast was raised slightly to 42.3 million tons. Export forecasts were raised for India and Vietnam, but lowered for Argentina, United States, and Uruguay. The 2015 global trade forecast was reduced 1.2 million tons to 42.5 million tons, mostly due to a reduced forecast for Thailand exports. Rice Outlook Nathan Childs nchilds@ers.usda.gov U.S. Rice Production Forecast Lowered to 205.0 Million Cwt Economic Research Service Situation and Outlook RCS-15H Aug. 14, 2015 Rice Chart Gallery will be updated on Aug. 18, 2015 The next release is Sept. 15, 2015 -------------- Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board. Rice Outlook/RCS-15h/August 14, 2015 Economic Research Service, USDA Prices for high and medium grades of Thailand’s regular-milled white rice have decreased 1-3 percent from a month earlier. Price quotes from Vietnam have declined slightly over the past month. Price quotes for package-quality California medium-grain milled-rice (bulk) for domestic sales to processors and repackagers are unchanged will prices for exported medium-grain milled rice have declined. Domestic Outlook 2 Rice Outlook/RCS-15h/August 14, 2015 Economic Research Service, USDA U.S. 2015/16 Rice Production Projected at 205.0 Million Acres The U.S. 2015/16 rice production forecast was lowered 1 percent to 205.0 million cwt, 7 percent below a year earlier. This month’s downward revision in production was based on a lower average yield. At 7,472 pounds per acre, the 2015/16 average field yield is down 72 pounds from the previous forecast and 100 pounds below a year earlier. This is the first survey-based yield forecast for the 2015/16 U.S. rice crop. Total planted area remains estimated at 2.77 million acres, 6 percent below a year earlier. Area is estimated below a year earlier in all reported States, with Arkansas accounting for more than half the decline in U.S. rice area. California reported the largest percentage decline in rice area in 2015/16, with area down 11 percent, a result of a fourth consecutive year of drought. Rice area declined 3-5 percent in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas. Rice plantings in 2015/16 declined less than 1 percent in Mississippi. Declining prices and adverse weather early in the season account for much of the area decline in the South. In addition, Texas growers faced a fourth year of water restrictions. By class, 2015/16 U.S. long-grain production is projected at 149.0 million cwt, down 2 percent from the previous forecast and 8 percent below a year earlier. Almost all U.S. long-grain rice is grown in the South. Combined medium- and short-grain production is projected at 56.0 million cwt, up 3 percent from the previous forecast but 5 percent below a year earlier. California typically supplies the bulk of U.S. medium- and short-grain production. However, since 2014/15, the South has produced a larger than normal share of U.S. medium- and short-grain production due to reduced area in California. Average field yields were reported below a year earlier in California, Louisiana, and Mississippi; nearly unchanged in Arkansas and Missouri; and higher than last year in Texas. At 8,400 pounds per acre, the California 2015/16 average yield is 2 percent smaller than a year earlier. Louisiana’s average yield of 6,750 pounds per acre is 5 percent below a year ago. Mississippi’s 2015/16 average yield of 7,300 pounds pe