USDA Wheat Outlook（2015-8-14）

Projected U.S. wheat supplies for 2015/16 are lowered on a smaller crop and reduced imports. An increase in spring wheat production is more than offset by decreases for hard red winter, soft red winter, and white wheat. Hard red spring wheat yields in North Dakota are forecast to be a record. Projected imports are lowered 5 million bushels on the larger U.S. hard red spring crop and lower Canadian production. All wheat exports for 2015/16 are projected 25 million bushels lower at 925 million on a slow pace to date and increased foreign supplies. Ending stocks are raised 8 million bushels to 850 million, the largest since 2010/11. The season-average farm price is lowered 10 cents on the low end and 20 cents on the high end to $4.65 to $5.55 per bushel. A record-high 2015/16 global wheat crop is projected this month, with increases in the former Soviet Union (FSU-12) and Turkey that swamp reductions for Canada, Argentina, and the United States. Global wheat trade projected for 2015/16 is reduced somewhat this month, driven by lower Iranian imports, while both global feed use and record ending stocks are up. U.S. export prospects are reduced by strong competition. Wheat Outlook Gary Vocke gvocke@ers.usda.gov Olga Liefert oliefert@ers.usda.gov Projected Ending Stocks Up From Last Month as Exports Are Down Economic Research Service Situation and Outlook WHS-15h Aug. 14, 2015 Wheat Chart Gallery will be updated on August 14, 2015. The next release is Sept. 15, 2015. -------------- Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board. Domestic Outlook 2 Wheat Outlook/WHS-15h/August 14, 2015 Economic Research Service, USDA Projected Ending Stocks for 2015/16 Are up Month to Month Ending stocks of wheat for 2015/16 are projected to be up 8 million bushels from July and up 97 million bushels from 2014/15, as total supplies increase more than total use year to year. Total wheat supplies for 2015/16 are projected down 17 million bushels from July because of lower production and lower imports. Total projected use is down 25 million bushels from July with lower exports. Winter Wheat Production The forecast of 2015 winter wheat production, at 1,438 million bushels, is down 18 million bushels from July, but up 60 million bushels from 2014. Expected planted and harvested areas are unchanged from July. Expected harvested area is 33.3 million acres, up 1.0 million acres from last year as a higher harvest-to-planted ratio offset a lower planted area. The U.S. winter wheat yield is forecast at 43.2 bushels per acre, down 0.5 from July, but up 0.6 bushels from the previous year. Winter Wheat Production Estimates by Class Hard red winter (HRW) production is forecast at 856 million bushels, down 10 million bushels from July with lower yields. HRW production is up 118 million bushels from a year ago with larger harvested area and higher yields. Planted and harvested areas are unchanged from July. Forecast planted area, harvested area, and yield and year-to-year changes for 2015 from 2014 are 29.6 million acres, down 0.9 million acres; 23.6 million acres, up 1.7 million acres; and 36.3 bushels per acre, up 2.6 bushels per acre, respectively. Soft red winter (SRW) production is forecast at 389 million bushels, down 4 million bushels from July with lower yields and down 66 million bushels from last year. SRW production is forecast smaller than a year ago because of harvested area and a lower yield. Planted and harvested areas are unchanged from July. Forecast planted area, harvested area, and yield and year-to-year changes for 2015 from 2014 are 7.6 million acres, down 0.9 million acres; 6.4 million acres, down 0.7 million acres; and 60.4 bushels per acre, down 3.2 bushels per acre, respectively. White winter wheat production for 2015 is forecast to total 193 million bushels, down 2 million bushels from July, but up 9 million bushels from a year ago. Planted and harvested areas are unchanged from July. The planted and harvested areas, production, and yield for white winter wheat were as follows (hard white winter = HWW and soft white winter = SWW): 2015 HWW SWW Planted area (million acres) 0 .364 3.079 Harvested area (million acres) 0.319 2.958 Yield (bushels/acre) 39.2 61.1 Production (million bushels) 12.49 180.88 2014 HWW SWW Planted area (million acres) 0.383 3.047 Harvested area (million acres) 0.325 2.897 Domestic Outlook 3 Wheat Outlook/WHS-15h/August 14, 2015 Economic Research Service, USDA Yield (bushels/acre) 35.4 59.6 Production (million bushels) 11.50 172.80 Spring Wheat Production Estimates