Policy will Temporarily Keep a 'Wait and See' Attitude during the Period of an Absence of Release of Macro Data

February 3, 2015 Please read the "Special Disclaimer" Section on the last page - i - Securities Research Report China's Economy Policy will Temporarily Keep a 'Wait and See' Attitude during the Period of an Absence of Release of Macro Data Chinese Economy Monthly Forecast (February 2015) Recent economic growth data are mixed. Credit extension started to accelerate in the end of last year and should have remained strong in January 2015. This will help drive a recovery in economic growth. Despite declining YoY growth in property sales in Jan 2015, sales remained high in absolute terms, suggesting the recovery momentum was still sustaining. But on the other hand, manufacturing PMI slipped further in January, pointing to falling domestic demand as a result of weak business confidence. Capacity utilization rate also fell sharply in the steel industry. Overall, growth data are mixed at the moment and future growth trend remains unclear. The Spring Festival factor disrupts the interpretation of macro data for early 2015. Spring Festival falls on 19 February in 2015, nearly 20 days later than last year, when Spring Festival fell on 31 January. Such big change in the timing of Spring Festival could bring great disruptions to January's macro data this year. Generally speaking, businesses tend to speed up work before Spring Festival. Therefore, the sooner Spring Festival, the better January's macro data, especially for exports. It thus seems that the late timing of this year's Spring Festival will cause January's macro data to be substantially lower. Such disruptions will blur the eco-nomic information contained in the macro data for January. Policy will temporarily keep a 'wait and see' attitude during the period of an absence of release of macro data. Precisely because of the existence of Spring Festival disturbance, important data such as industrial output growth and invest-ment growth has not been released for January. Investors need to wait for cumu-lative January-February growth data to be issued in March. The absence of these data and the disturbance of the timing of Spring Festival have led to an absence of release of macro data in early 2015. During this period, macro policy should keep a 'wait and see' attitude. Major policy adjustments may not be issued until early March, when January-February data are published. CPI growth is set to slip toward 1.0% in January; deflationary pressures will push up expectations for monetary policy loosening. As far as the recent trend of weak food prices is concerned, CPI will continue trending down in the near term. Year-on-year CPI growth is expected to come in at around 1.0% in January. Given low price levels, we have lowered our CPI forecast for the full year 2015 to 1.6% from 1.8%. Weak price data will again push up expectations for monetary easing. But as mentioned above, major monetary policies (such as RRR or interest rate cut), if any, will not be rolled out until after a clear picture of macroeconomic conditions becomes available in early March.■Analyst: Gao Xu 010-56513082 gaoxu@ebscn.com Practice license number: S0930512080004 Change in Everbright’s China GDP forecast Change in Everbright’s China CPI forecast Follow Everbright macroeconomic research Follow economic pulses 77.27.47.67.888.28.42012-92013-32013-92014-32014-92015年GDP预测2014年GDP预测2013年GDP预测同比（%）1.522.533.542012-92013-32013-92014-32014-92015年CPI预测2014年CPI预测2013年CPI预测同比（%）YoY (%) 2015 GDP forecast 2014 GDP forecast 2013 GDP forecast YoY (%) 2015 CPI forecast 2014 CPI forecast 2013 CPI forecast 2015年2月3日 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 - 1 - 证券研究报告 中国经济 进入宏观数据空窗期，政策暂时观望 中国经济月度预测（2015年2月） 近期经济增长面信息好坏皆有。信贷投放于去年年末开始加速。进入2015年1月，投放的力度应该仍然不低。这有利于经济增长的复苏。地产销售同比增速虽然在今年1月有所下滑，但销量的绝对数量仍然不低，复苏的势头并未结束。但另一方面，1月份的制造业PMI进一步下降，显示企业信心走弱，带动内需下滑。而钢铁行业的产能利用率也大幅下挫。整体来看，目前增长面信息并不一致，未来经济增长走势仍然模糊。 春节因素扰动年初宏观数据的解读。2015年的春节在2月19日，与2014年1月31日的春节在日历上差了近20天。这种大幅度的春节错位会对今年1月份的宏观经济数据带来很大扰动。一般来说，企业会在春节之前加快工作。因此，春节越早，1月份的宏观经济数据表现会越好（出口尤其如此）。这样看起来，今年春节的错后会导致1月份宏观经济数据明显偏低。这种扰动会模糊1月份宏观数据所包含的经济信息。 宏观数据空窗期，政策暂时保持观望。正是因为春节扰动的存在，所以像工业增加值、投资这样的重要数据都没有1月数据的发布，而是等到3月份发布1、2月的累计增速。这些数据的空缺，再加上春节错位的扰动，导致年初出现宏观数据的空窗期。在这段空窗期中，宏观政策应该会保持观望的态度。重大政策调整需要等到3月初发布1、2月数据之时。 1月CPI将滑向1.0%，通缩压力将推升货币政策放松预期。从近期食品价格低迷的走势来看，CPI在短期内还将继续下探。1月CPI同比数字预计在1.0%附近。考虑到物价的低迷，我们已经将2015年全年CPI预测从之前的1.8%下调至1.6%。低迷的物价数据会让货币政策放松预期再次升温。不过，正如前文所述，货币政策如果有重大举措（如降准降息），需要等到3月初宏观形势明朗之后。■ 分析师: 徐高 010-56513082 gaoxu@ebscn.com 执业证书编号： S0930512080004 光大中国GDP预测变化 光大中国CPI预测变化 关注光大宏观 把握经济脉搏 77.27.47.67.888.28.42012-92013-32013-92014-32014-92015年GDP预测2014年GDP预测2013年GDP预测同比（%）1.522.533.542012-92013-32013-92014-32014-92015年CPI预测2014年CPI预测2013年CPI预测同比（%） 2015-2-3 中国经济预测 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 - 2 -