TMT Sector
TMT 公司研究：TMT行业 谨请参阅尾页重要申明及复星恒利股票和行业评级标准 4 TMT 9 November 2018 TMT Sector Software-Long-term development with solid accumulation and improved learning Compared to the rapid growth of 2C internet companies in China, 2B software companies are still weak and the market capacity is huge with good prospect. Different from the short cycle and fast iteration of 2C companies, the 2B industry has to have a long-term accumulation in the related industry. The 2C market potential has gradually become completely released while the market needs high-quality corporate services to serve the B-end. And for the national level, it is necessary to get rid of the dependence to IOE(IOE: IBM, Oracle and EMC) for the consideration to data security. Recommendation: Chinasoft (354.HK), Kingdee(268.HK), Kingsoft (3888.HK) Semiconductor-the perfect timing for all perspectives The semiconductor industry is a highly capital-intensive and highly technology-intensive industry and it is the core foundation and the key technology for the development of national technology. It is also the important for the national security. The vertical fields of the semiconductor industry include design, manufacturing and packaging & testing. In 2017, these three parts in China achieved revenues of RMB207.35 billion, 144.81 billion and 188.97 billion, respectively, achieving year-on-year growth of 26.1%, 28.5% and 20.8%. And the manufacturing is still weak in China Recommendation: Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corportation (981.HK), Hua Hong Semiconductor (1347.HK) and ASM Pacific (522.HK) The Supply Chain of Mobile Phone-expecting the clear weather after black clouds After a few years of rapid growth in global smartphone, shipments experienced negative growth for the first time in 2017. However, the social and entertainment features of mobile phones are difficult to be replaced in the future for a long time, and the mobile phone market has entered a period of stable maturity. Although the non-differentiated competition will compress the entire market profit, it will bring the opportunity of profit redistribution which is good for the Chinese manufacures. The key mobile phone accessory manufacturers in the Chinese market are expected to bottom out. Recommendation: Sunny optical Technology (2382. HK), Q Technology (1478.HK), AAC Technology 5G Conception At the 2018 World Mobile Congress, the three major operators of mobile communications and many companies in the industry chain released the latest 5G deployment plan, clarifying that 5G will be officially commercialized by 2020. It is expected that 5G equipment suppliers are expected to benefit from 5G investment in 2019/20. Recommendation: Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable (6869.HK), Comba Telecom Systems (2342.HK) Research Department Fosun Hani Wang Hao Ph.D (852) 2979 6808 George.wang@fosunhani.com TMT 公司研究：TMT行业 谨请参阅尾页重要申明及复星恒利股票和行业评级标准 4 TMT 2018年11月9日 TMT行业 软件-博观约取，厚积薄发 相对于2C类型互联网公司在中国迅速崛起，2B类型的软件公司仍然是短板，发展空间巨大。相对于2C的短周期、快迭代，2B行业具有深沉淀、长发展的特点。在2C领域红利逐渐趋于完全释放，市场需要优质的公司服务C端，也需要一批优秀的企业服务B端。从国家层面，基于数据安全的考虑，也有去IOE需求（IOE：IBM、Oracle及EMC），因此，2B类型的公司在未来一段时间具有天时地利的发展空间及必要性。 推荐中软国际（354.HK）及金山软件（3888 HK）建议关注金蝶（268.HK）及中国擎天软件（1297.HK） 半导体-天时地利人和 半导体行业属于高度资本密集和高度技术密集型产业，是国家技术发展的关键环节和技术发展的核心基础，同时也是国家安全的重要领域，中美贸易战及对中兴等企业的制裁，有望提升半导体产业的战略地位。垂直领域分为设计、制造及封测三个产业。2017年我国三个产业分别实现收入人民币2073.5亿、1448.1亿及1889.7亿，实现26.1%、28.5%及20.8%的同比增长。 推荐中芯国际（981.HK）、华虹半导体（1347.HK）及ASM Pacific（522.HK） 手机配件-否极泰来终可待 全球智能手机在经历了数年的快速增长后，在2017年出货量首次出现了负增长。然而，手机在社交及娱乐上的功能在未来相当长一段时间内很难被取代，手机市场进入稳定成熟期。无差异化的竞争尽管会压缩整个市场利润，但会带来利润重新分配的机会，在中国市场关键手机配件厂商有望触底反弹。 推荐舜宇光学（2382.HK）及丘钛科技（1478.HK）建议关注瑞声科技（2018 HK） 5G概念 2018世界移动大会，移动通讯三大运营商及产业链上多家企业发布最近的5G部署计划，明确2020年实现5G正式商用。预期5G设备供应商于2019/20年有望受益于5G的投资。 推荐长飞光纤光缆（6869.Hk）、京信通信（2342.HK）建议关注摩比发展（947.HK） 复星恒利证券研究部 Wang Hao Ph.D (852) 2979 6808 George.wang@fosunhani.com TMT 公司研究：TMT行业 谨请参阅尾页重要申明及复星恒利股票和行业评级标准 4 软件行业 ...................................................................................................................................................................... 4 行业现状 ........................................................................................................................................................................... 4 高增长低渗透率 ............................................................................................................................................................... 5 中软国际（354.HK）买入 目标价 7.34港元 ............................................................................
