USDA Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook 2017.09.18

January-July Red Meat and Dairy Imports Mostly Year-Over-Year Lower U.S imports of red meats and dairy were mostly lower for the January-July period of2017, compared with the same period in 2016. January-July beef imports were 4.3percent below a year earlier, due largely to increased domestic production and lowerproduction in Oceania. Pork imports were only slightly below (-0.6 percent) the January-July period last year. For both pork and beef, Canada has been the primary supplier ofimported products this year. Lamb/mutton was the only component of the red meataggregate for which imports have been higher so far this year. The United Statesimported 14 percent more lamb in the first 7 months of the year, compared with January-July 2016, due to lower domestic production. Most imported lamb products are sourcedfrom Australia. Dairy imports, on a milk-fat milk-equivalent basis, were almost 18 percentbelow a year earlier. The decline is mainly attributable to lower cheese imports. TheEuropean Union was the primary source of January-July dairy imports.-20-15-10-505101520*Dairy imports on a milk-fat milk equivalent basis.Source: Economic Research Service: U.S Dept. of Agriculture.January-July 2017red meat and dairyimports:percent change from same-period 2016Beef-4.3Pork-0.6Lamb & mutton+14Dairy*-17.7Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook Mildred Haley mhaley@ers.usda.gov Economic Research Service Situation and Outlook LDP-M-279 Sept. 18, 2017 Contents Cattle/Beef Dairy Pork/Hogs Sheep/Lamb Poultry Contacts and Links Special Article: On Different Trajectories: A Look at Sales of Cow's Milk and Plant-Based Milk Analogs Tables Red Meat and Poultry Dairy Forecast Web Sites Animal Production and Marketing Issues Cattle Dairy Hogs Poultry and Eggs WASDE -----------------------------Tables will be released on September 27, 2017 The next Outlook Report release is October 18, 2017 ----------------------------- Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board. Cattle/Beef: Commercial beef production is lowered to 26.6 billion pounds on expected slower marketing pace for fed cattle in the second half of 2017, although cow slaughter is higher. The beef trade forecast remained unchanged, but the forecast for U.S. live cattle imports was adjusted higher based on the year-to-date pace of imports from Mexico and June to July increase of cattle from Canada. Dairy: With lower expectations for exports and relatively high stock levels of dairy products, all-milk price forecasts have been lowered. For 2017, the all-milk price forecast is $17.70-$17.90 per cwt, a decrease from last month’s forecast of $17.80-18.00. The 2018 all-milk price forecast is $17.55-$18.55 per cwt, a decrease from last month’s forecast of $18.00-$19.00. Pork/Hogs: Expanded slaughter capacity in two Corn-Belt States is expected to reduce pressure on fourth-quarter hog prices. U.S. pork exports slowed in July, due mostly to slower exports to China, whose pork sector is rebounding from recent downsizing. Sheep/Lamb: Third-quarter lamb and mutton production is forecast at 36 million pounds, unchanged from the previous quarter and from the same period last year. Stocks held in cold storage continue at elevated levels, buoyed by an increasing supply of imported products and relatively weak lamb demand. San Angelo Choice slaughter lamb prices, however, remained fairly stable, hovering in the range of $146-$150 per cwt. Poultry: Forecast broiler production was reduced for the third and fourth quarters this year. Egg prices were increased for the remainder of the year due to recent price strength. Forecast turkey production was increased for the third quarter, and the 2017 price forecast was reduced. Special Article: “On Different Trajectories: A Look at Sales of Cow’s Milk and Plant-Based Milk Analogs” provides an overview of market data for cow’s milk and plant-based milk analogs (beverages that are often marketed alongside cow’s milk). Household scanner data from Information Resources, Inc. (IRI) indicate that plant-based milk analogs are more expensive than cow’s milk. The data further show that market shares have been rising for almond beverages, falling for soy beverages, and rising for other types of milk analogs, on average. 2 Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook/LDP-M-279/September 18, 2017 Economic Research Service, USDA Cattle / Beef U.S. Beef Production Revised Slightly Lower on Cattle Marketings Drought conditions in the Northern Plains and hurricanes Harvey and Irma have likely affected regional U.S. cattle production. While much of the effects from the drought in the Northern Plains has likely already played out, it is too early to estimate the impacts of the two hurricanes. The forecast for 2017 commercial beef production was lowered by 140 million pounds to 26.6 billion pounds, on slower expected marketing pace for fed cattle through the remainder of the year, despite heavier cattle dressed weights and higher cow slaughter.