Metals & Mining Conference 2017

Deutsche BankdbAccessConference compendiumdbAccess Metals & Mining ConferenceWednesday, 13 September 2017Winchester House, LondonDeutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 083/04/2017.Distributed on: 08/09/2017 18:09:00 GMT0bed7b6cf11c 8 September 2017Metals & MiningMining & steelIndustrialsMetals & MiningIndustry UpdateAsiaEmerging EuropeEuropeSub-Saharan AfricaIndustryMining & steelDate8 September 2017Deutsche BankMarkets ResearchMetals & Mining Conference 2017The 14th annual Deutsche Bank Metals & Mining conferenceWe are hosting our 14th annual Metals & Mining conference on Wednesday 13September 2017. As well as major mining and steel companies, several industryexperts are also presenting at the event on topics including EVs, copper demandand decarbonisation. In this note we set out our latest forecasts for each attendingcompany under our coverage and some suggested topics for discussion andquestions for management. See page 3 for a full list of attending companies andexperts.Can the sector maintain discipline?The sector has enjoyed a powerful rally since the lows in early 2016 andmanagement teams are now focusing on longer term strategies. Now is anopportune time to test companies on areas such as growth options, M&A,disposals and cash returns. Can the corporates remain disciplined on capitalallocation given the strong recovery in cash flows? Will M&A become a growingtheme like in the 2000s or is China Inc. too big and powerful a competitor? Canmanagement teams avoid the mistakes of the past?Structural opportunities & risks for the miners: decarbonisation, electricvehicles, substitution & environmental regulationsIn addition to the companies attending, we also have a range of industry expertsto discuss various technical and structural factors impacting the mining sectorover the medium term. Decarbonisation and the potential for significant legislativeaction to counteract climate change poses serious challenges for many miners,who are significant greenhouse gas emitters, and coal producers, who facesignificant long-term decline in demand and the potential for significant punitivetariffs longer-term. However, decarbonisation will also present opportunities forinvesting in ‘green’ metals which support the decarbonisation drive, such aslithium, manganese, copper, and cobalt for electric vehicles and aluminium forauto weight reduction. Increased environmental scrutiny and regulation in Chinahas already cracked down on poorer quality steel mills, and so the drive for larger,more efficient blast furnaces will likely continue to favour high grade iron oreproducers over lower grade miners.Liam FitzpatrickResearch Analyst+44-207-541-3233Patrick JonesResearch Analyst+44-20-754-53400Paul YoungResearch Analyst+61-2-8258-2587Bastian SynagowitzResearch Analyst+41-44-227-3377George BuzhenitsaResearch Analyst+971-4-361-1734Sharon DingResearch Analyst+852-2203-5716Patrick Mann, CFAResearch Analyst+27-11-775-7282Deutsche Bank AG/LondonDeutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should beaware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should considerthis report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONSARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 083/04/2017. 8 September 2017Metals & MiningMining & steelTable Of ContentsList of Corporate and Specialist attendees ..................................................... 3Acerinox .......................................................................................................... 4Anglo American .............................................................................................. 5Antofagasta .................................................................................................... 6Aperam ........................................................................................................... 7Arcelor Mittal .................................................................................................. 8BHP Billiton .................................................................................................... 9Boliden .......................................................................................................... 10Chalco ........................................................................................................... 11Ferrexpo ..........................