2018 Forecasts for Most Animal Proteins Increase USDA forecasts for animal protein production in 2018 show across the board increases with the exception of veal and lamb. Total red meat production in 2018 is forecast at 54 billion pounds, 2.8 percent more than expected this year. Total poultry production is expected to increase to 49 billion pounds, or 1.9 percent above the 2017 forecast. Total egg production is expected to increase by 1.8 percent and milk production by 2.4 percent. -4-3-2-10123beefporkbroilersturkeyeggsmilklambSource: W orld Agricultural Outlook Board, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture.veal2018 Animal protein production forecasts: Percent change from 2017Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook Mildred Haley mhaley@ers.usda.gov Keithly Jones kjones@ers.usda.gov Economic Research Service Situation and Outlook LDP-M-275 May 16, 2017 Contents Cattle/Beef Dairy Pork/Hogs Poultry Contacts and Links Tables Red Meat and Poultry Dairy Forecast Web Sites Animal Production and Marketing Issues Cattle Dairy Hogs Poultry and Eggs WASDE -----------------------------Tables will be released on May 30, 2017 The next Outlook Report release is June 15, 2017 ----------------------------- Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board. Cattle/Beef: Beef production for 2017 is revised down slightly at 26.3 billion pounds, based on lower average dressed weights for fed cattle that reflect a more rapid pace of marketing and on an increased share of cows in the total slaughter count. The decline in dressed weights is expected to moderate in the second half of 2017 as placement weights may reflect abundant spring-forage supplies and the pace of marketing is expected to slow. For 2018, production is forecast at 26.9 billion pounds as increased placements in late 2017 and early 2018 are slaughtered that year. With more production expected, USDA forecasts year-over-year declines in cattle prices and increased beef exports. Dairy: The milk production forecast for 2018 is 222.0 billion pounds, 2.4 percent higher than the 2017 forecast. With higher expected domestic demand and exports, the 2018 all-milk price forecast is $17.55-$18.55 per cwt, an increase from $17.35-$17.85 per cwt forecast for 2017. Pork/Hogs: Slaughter capacity expansion in Corn-Belt States, expected to begin to operate later this year, is projected to support higher pork production in 2018. Commercial pork production next year is forecast at 26.9 billion pounds, 3.3 percent higher than expected production this year. 2018 hog prices will reflect larger animal supplies, averaging $42-$46 per cwt, about 3 percent lower than the price forecast for this year. First-quarter 2017 exports of more than 1.4 billion pounds were 17 percent ahead of the same period a year ago. Poultry: The broiler industry has continued to see weak growth in bird weights, but production growth is expected to continue into 2018 on stable producer margins. Growth in egg production is expected to continue, but at a slightly reduced pace in 2018, in part due to weak producer margins in the past year. 2 Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook/LDP-M-275/May 16, 2017 Economic Research Service, USDA Cattle / Beef 2018 Beef Production Forecast at 2.3-Percent Growth USDA forecasts 2.3-percent growth in U.S. beef production in 2018, based on larger 2016—and expected 2017—calf crops that are projected to support increases in cattle placements in late 2017 and early 2018. Marketings of fed cattle are expected to be higher during 2018, supporting higher slaughter during the year, while carcass weights are also expected to increase. Slaughter Up, but Lighter Weights Hamper Production In the first quarter of 2017, commercial beef production climbed to 6.3 billion pounds, up 6 percent from the same period in 2016. Meatpackers achieved 3 consecutive months of year-over-year increases in production, and the increase is reflected in the harvesting of 526,600 more cattle than in 2016. Production was hamstrung by a 10-pound drop in the average dressed weight as fed cattle were marketed at lighter weights and the slaughter mix contained proportionally more heifers and cows. Although the magnitude of the year-over-year decline in weights is expected to moderate during the year, the average carcass weight for the year is expected to be below earlier levels. Lower expected carcass weights resulted in a reduction of the full-year’s total beef production forecast to 26.3 billion lbs. Cattle Prices Climb as Packers Increase Slaughter To Offset Lower Weights Fed steer prices showed atypical strength during April and into May. The demand for market-ready cattle boosted the 5-Area Direct steer price in April to $131.31 per hundred weight (cwt), above the first-quarter estimate of $122.96 per cwt. The second-quarter 5-Area Direct steer price is projected at $127-$133 per cwt, reflecting strong prices through early May. Expectations are that prices will remain relative