EM Local Rates Monitor

21 October 2016 EM Local Rates Monitor ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Deutsche Bank AG/London DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 057/04/2016. EM Local Rates Monitor Market Overview ....................................................................................................................................................................... 2 Technical Models ....................................................................................................................................................................... 8 EMEA Section Czech Republic ............................................................................................................................................................................... 9 Hungary ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 11 Israel ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 13 Poland .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 15 Romania ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 17 Russia ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 18 South Africa .................................................................................................................................................................................. 20 Turkey ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 22 Latam Section Brazil ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 24 Chile .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 25 Colombia ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 27 Mexico .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 29 Appendix .................................................................................................................................................................................. 32 Recent EM Local Rates Publications 18/10/2016 EM: EM Local Rates Monitor – What is hot and what is not 14/10/2016 EM: EM Local Rates Monitor – What is hot and what is not 12/10/2016 EM: EM Local Rates Monitor - What is hot and what is not 04/10/2016 EM: EM Local Rates Monitor - What is hot and what is not 22/09/2016 EM: EM Local Rates Monitor - What is hot and what is not 21/10/2016 EMEA Trade Recommendation – EMEA Rates: Re-enter receivers in Poland 18/10/2016 EMEA: EMEA Snap – Turkey ahead of CBT: What to expect and how to position 06/10/2016 EMEA: Trade Recommendation - EMEA Rates - Top Trades for October 20/09/2016 EMEA: EMEA Snap - Hungary - What technical easing means for local markets 09/09/2016 EMEA: Trade Recommendation - EMEA Rates - How to position into autumn 26/08/2016 EMEA: Trade Recommendation - EMEA Rates: Receive 2Y2Y IRS in South Africa 18/10/2016 LatAm: Trade Recommendation – Brazil Rates: Tightening the Belt Ahead of the Cycle 14/10/2016 LatAm: Trade Recommendation – Cash Bonds in LatAm Local Markets: Positioning into October 09/09/2016 LatAm: Trade Recommendation - Brazil Rates: Rolling down the FRA 09/09/2016 LatAm: Trade Recommendation - Colombia: Erasing the Monetary Policy Premium 01/09/2016 LatAm: Trade Recommendation - Brazil Rates: What if the BCB decides not to ease in 2016? 30/08/2016 LatAm: Data Flash - BanRep's Decision, Scenarios and Front End Valuation Distributed on: 21/10/2016 09:58:16 GMT 21 October 2016 EM Local Rates Monitor 2 London: Christian Wietoska, +44(20)754-52424 New York: Guilherme Marone, +1(212)250-8640 Mumbai: Ankit Aggarwal, +91(22)6181-2171 Market Overview Market Overview BondSwapBasis (bp)BondSwapBasisBondSwapBasis BondSwapBasis (bp)BondSwapBasisBondSwapBasisBo