代际进步停滞了吗？五代美国人的收入增长

Finance and Economics Discussion SeriesFederal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C.ISSN 1936-2854 (Print)ISSN 2767-3898 (Online)Has Intergenerational Progress Stalled? Income Growth OverFive Generations of AmericansKevin Corinth and Jeff Larrimore2024-007Please cite this paper as:Corinth, Kevin, and Jeff Larrimore (2024).“Has Intergenerational Progress Stalled?Income Growth Over Five Generations of Americans,” Finance and Economics Discus-sion Series 2024-007. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.007.NOTE: Staff working papers in the Finance and Economics Discussion Series (FEDS) are preliminarymaterials circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment. The analysis and conclusions set forthare those of the authors and do not indicate concurrence by other members of the research staff or theBoard of Governors. References in publications to the Finance and Economics Discussion Series (other thanacknowledgement) should be cleared with the author(s) to protect the tentative character of these papers. Has Intergenerational Progress Stalled? Income Growth Over Five Generations of Americans Kevin Corinth American Enterprise Institute, IZA Jeff Larrimore Federal Reserve Board January 2024 Abstract We find that each of the past four generations of Americans was better off than the previous one, using a post-tax, post-transfer income measure constructed annually from 1963-2022 based on the Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement. At age 36–40, Millennials had a real median household income that was 18 percent higher than that of the previous generation at the same age. This rate of intergenerational progress was slower than that experienced by the Silent Generation (34 percent) and Baby Boomers (27 percent), but similar to that experienced by Generation X (16 percent). Slower progress for Generation X and Millennials is due to their stalled growth in work hours—holding work hours constant, they experienced a greater intergenerational increase in real market income than Baby Boomers. Intergenerational progress for Millennials under age 30 has remained robust as well, although their income growth largely results from higher reliance on their parents. We also find that the higher educational costs incurred by younger generations is far outweighed by their lifetime income gains. JEL codes: D31, E24, H24, J3, J62 Keywords: Full income; Growth; Generations; Mobility; Millennials The results and opinions expressed in this paper reflect the views of the authors and do not indicate concurrence by other members of the research staff or the Board of Governors. For helpful comments and discussion, we thank Richard Burkhauser, Jonathan Fisher, Maggie Jones, Bruce Meyer, Scott Winship, and participants at the 2023 National Tax Association conference. 1 1. Introduction A defining aspect of the American Dream is that the economic wellbeing of each generation should surpass that of the previous one. Whether this condition holds f or younger generations has recently been called into question. A 2022 Gallup poll found that just 42 percent of Americans expect that today’s youth will have a better life than their parents—down from 71 percent who felt that way in 1999 (Brenan 2022). Similarly, headlines in recent years have called Millennials (born from 1981–1996) the “unluckiest generation in U.S. history” (Van Dam 2020) and claimed that “many Millennials are worse off than their parents—a first in American history” (Luhby 2020).1 Yet, when asked about their own financial situation compared to their parents at a similar age in the Federal Reserve’s Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking (SHED), Millennial and Generation Z adults were nearly as likely as Baby Boomers to report doing better than their parents at the same age.2 Hence, young adults appear to be more positive about their own financial progress than popular commentary suggests. Additionally, recent work by Twenge (2023) claimed that counter to recent narratives, intergenerational income growth for millennials in young adulthood far surpassed the intergenerational income growth for either Generation X or Baby Boomers. Gaining an accurate understanding of changes in economic wellbeing across generations, in light of these narratives, is important for assessing the state of the American Dream. Previous research has provided important insights on intergenerational comparisons of wellbeing. Much of this research compares the economic wellbeing of adult children to their parents.3 Studies of absolute mobility estimate the share of adults whose incomes exceed that of their parents at a constant age, often comparing contemporary adults to their parents without examining longer periods to document trends in absolute mobility (e.g., Urahn et al. 2012). One recent exception is Chetty et al. (2017). They combine cross-sectio