宏观经济 | 2024年2月29日 本报告由建银国际证券有限公司撰写。分析师证明及其他重要声明请见报告最后一页。 1 报告摘要  发达国家降通胀进程预计放缓，欧美央行对降息谨慎，日本央行预计将逐步退出宽松：美国经济短期增长动能仍较强劲，通胀可能超预期。市场对联储年内降息的预期调整带动利率走高，符合我们年初预期。地缘政治风险和美国经济坚挺下降通胀进程预计放慢，但美国商业地产的风险使联储难以再次加息。我们维持联储在3季度和4季度各降息25个基点的预测。预计2年和10年美国债利率3月的交易区间为4.4%-4.8%和4.0%-4.4%。下半年随降息推进预计小幅回落。欧洲央行也将关注通胀风险，难以短期转向。3月的薪资谈判将影响日本走出通缩的进程，预计日本央行将逐步退出负利率。  国内春节消费走强，增强复苏信心，聚焦两会：春节长假期间旅游出行及生活服务等活动消费快速增长。节后生产总体保持复苏势头，地产交易二手房回暖快过新房，预示需求有所抬头。关注即将召开的两会，预计将延续中央经济会议精神，突出消费投资并举，产业升级和防范风险等主题，宏观取态保持支持。我们预计24年增长目标将保持在5%左右，财政支出提速。  美元周期回落有利新兴市场资金流，点心债融资预计继续回升：降息预期的减弱推动美国和其他国家的利差走阔，美元指数反弹。但预计降息周期的开启将推动美元下半年下行。新兴市场资金受债市带动回流。随着中国经济持续复苏，人民币汇率有望小幅走高。中美利差持续下预计中资美元债存量仍将收缩，点心债发行年后将持续增加。 下月市场焦点：国际方面，需要关注欧美国家通胀及就业数据，央行议息会议。国内方面，关注经济活动高频数据，及即将召开的两会。 Main points:  With the pace of disinflation expected to slow, the Fed and ECB will stay cautious towards rate cuts. The BoJ is likely to gradually exit from its ultra-easing policy. The US economy is likely to remain solid in the near term. Upside inflation surprises are likely. The markets pared back expectations of rate cuts, driving interest rates higher, in line with our v iew. Geopolitical uncertainty and US economic resilience are likely to slow the pace of disinflation. However, risks surrounding commercial real estate hinder the Fed’s ability to hike again. We maintain our forecast that the Fed will cut rates by 25bp in each of 3Q and 4Q. Furthermore, we expect 2- and 10-year US Treasury yields will trade in the range of 4.4%-4.8% and 4.0%-4.4% in Mar, respectively, before falling slightly along with rate cuts in 2H. Burdened by similar inflation concerns, the ECB is unlikely to cut rates soon. The shunto wage negotiations in Mar are likely to weigh on the prospects for a Japan exit from deflation. W e expect the BoJ to exit ultra-loose monetary policy in Apr.  In China, robust holiday spending boosts recovery confidence. Markets turn their focus to the Two Sessions. Tourism and entertainment spending was strong during the Chinese New Year (CNY), and manufacturing production is picking up post the holiday. S econdhand home sales performed better than sales of new homes during the CNY period, signaling a recov ery in demand. W e expect the Two S essions will reiterate the priorities of the Central Economic W ork Conference, with a focus on consumption, inv estment, industrial upgrades, and de-risking. Macro policy is likely to stay supportiv e. W e expect a 2024 growth target of around 5% with accelerating fiscal spending.  The medium term USD downturn supports EM capital inflows. Dim Sum Bond issuance likely to rebound. The pull-back of Fed rate cut expectations has pushed interest rate differentials between the US and other nations wider, leading to a stronger US D . Howev er, we expect the piv ot to the interest rate cutting cycle will lead to a weaker US D in 2H 2024. EM capital inflows are picking up, driv en by bond markets. As China's economy continues to recover, the RMB is expected to strengthen slightly against dollar. Existing Chinese US D bonds will continue to shrink amid persistently elev ated US /China interest rate differentials. Dim S um Bond issuance is likely to pick up further. Market focus next month. Internationally, we are keeping an eye on inflation, employment data, and central banker speeches. Domestically, our focus is high-frequency economic data and the Two S essions meetings.崔历 (852) 3911 8274 cuili@ccbintl.com 谢炫 (852) 3911 8241 kev inxie@ccbintl.com 严惠婷 (852) 3911 8012 yanhuiting@ccbintl.com 建银国际证券 ｜宏观研究 宏观月报 – 2024年2月: 中国春节消费升温，3月聚焦两会，海外通胀降温或遇阻 Monthly Economic Data Wrap – Feb 2024: Domestic focus turns to the two sessions after solid CNY spending; global disinflation faces obstacles 宏观经济 | 2024年2月29日 建银国际证券 2 海外宏观：欧美通胀降温或将放缓，发达国家央行对宽松保持谨慎 欧美降通胀进展遇到阻力。欧美1月整体和核心通胀同比增速降幅小于市场预期（图1）。核心通胀同比降温仍主要来源于核心商品价格下跌。但随着推动核心商品价格同比下行的基数效应逐步消退，中东紧张局势导致航运成本持续上升，未来欧美核心商品价格有反弹风险。新冠疫情时的经验显示，持续高企的海运成本将最终在欧美消费和生产端的价格上显现（图2）。1月美国生产者价格指数环比增速已超预期上升。由于服务需求坚挺，欧美服务通胀仍较有黏性，美国1月住房和医疗通胀环比分别升至0.6%和0.5%。 全球经济总体坚挺，大幅衰退可能较小。就业数据显示美国经济短期增长动能仍较强劲，1月失业率和时薪增速均超预期。库存周期推动美国制造业持续改善。服务业持续扩张。1月零售降幅超预期，可能受假期结束与天气寒冷影响。但金融条件收紧预计逐步发挥作用，比如借贷成本上升、信用卡违约增加。我们预计美国经济2024年大概率软着陆，消费支出的降温将在2024年推动美国经济增长放缓。企业资本支出虽有放缓，但在科技革新和美国产业政策的推动下，商业投资增长可能将持续保持韧性。住房投资可能继续见底回升。虽然4季度欧洲经济陷入停滞，但仍略超预期。PMI显示虽然欧元区制造业乏力，但服务业有所复苏，内需仍坚挺，大幅衰退风险较小。4季度日本经济再次小幅萎缩但收缩幅度减小。虽有技术性衰退，但在消费反弹支持下预计年内恢复正增长。 欧美央行对降息态度谨慎，市场预期持续回调：美联储2月21日公布的会议纪要显示，多数美联储官员认为，政策利率可能处于峰值，目前是降通胀的最后一公里，需要有耐心。大多数官员强调过早降息可能导致通胀回升。由于降通胀进展放缓，经济韧性犹在，联储并不确定高利率需持续多久，强调需依据数据来决定政策。在联储官员的鹰派表态和超预期数据的推动下，市场对2024年全年的降息预期逐步回归至联储点阵图的中位数预测（图4）。如我们在2024年宏观展望所述，去年底市场对降息预期过高，有调整的风险。我们维持联储在3季度和4季度各降息25个基点的预测。虽然欧央行预计未来通胀继续回落，但对降息也持续谨慎，强调需在未来几个季度看到薪资压力持续缓解，才能确信通胀将回落至目标水平。但由于欧元区增长停滞，欧央行未来可能比联储更早降息。 日本央行逐步退出负利率和超级宽松仍是基本情形：1月日本核心通胀降幅弱于预期主要受商品价格影响，而服务通胀连续第三个月在2.2%的高位。市场关注日本经济收入和支出是否实现良性循环，帮助经济走出通缩并支持日本央行逐步退出负利率政策。3月工会的薪资谈判被广泛关注，如果薪资增速持续坚挺，我们预计日本央行可能在4月议息会议上将官方利率从-0.1%上调至0.1%，正式退出负利率政策。日本央行过往几年逐步降低宽松幅度，包括在去年10月放松利率控制政策，允许10年日