请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明海外研究公司深度研究报告证券研究报告保险＃investSuggestion＃买入（＃investSuggestionChange＃维持）来源：Wind，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理＃relatedReport＃相关报告《综合成本率微升，盈利状况稳定》20230831海外公司跟踪报告海外研究＃emailAuthor＃分析师：张博zhangboyjs@xyzq.com.cnSFC：BMM189SAC：S0190519060002孙寅sunyin@xyzq.com.cnSAC：S0190521060002唐亮亮tangliangliang@xyzq.com.cnSAC：S0190523080002请注意，孙寅、唐亮亮并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管的活动。＃marketData＃市场数据数据日期2024-02-21收盘价（港元）10.06总股本（百万股）22,243流通股本（百万股）6,899净资产（百万港元）250,077总资产（百万港元）751,533每股净资产（港元）11.10＃02328.HK＃dyCompany＃中国财险港股通（沪/深）＃title＃业精于勤，行成于思＃createTime1＃2024年2月22日投资要点＃summary＃基本情况：中国财险作为综合实力强劲的大型国有保险公司，保费规模居全球财险市场前列，不仅具备财险公司独特的经营特质，还拥有深厚的经营护城河。近年来，面对利率持续下行压力，相比其他以寿险业务为主的上市险企，中国财险负债久期短+成本低、杠杆及ROE波动较小、偿二代二期规则下偿付能力更优、受资本约束更小等优势逐步显现。此外，公司近年来坚持改革创新，推动保费规模稳健增长的同时全面降本增效，承保盈利能力持续精进；加之较高的分红水平和较好的股息表现，公司长期投资价值不断提升。经营分析：规模增长稳健，成本管控优良。1）规模领先：网点遍布全国，市场份额遥遥领先。2023年1-12月，保费市占率32.5%，超二三名之和。车险经受综改考验后重回增长，份额稳定在32-33%之间；后续考虑续保率改善+新能源车先发优势，规模增长有望延续。非车保费保持两位数增长，保费占比持续提升，2023年占比提升至44.6%。核心非车险种中，农险市场份额近半，意健险发展迅猛，或带动非车整体延续较快增长。2）成本优良：COR表现优异，承保盈利能力持续精进。车险方面，综改下成本率短暂抬升后改善，预计随着结构优化及经营能力改进稳中向好。非车方面，成本率波动较大，通过业务结构调整和风险减量服务带动盈利改善。3）投资稳健：规模稳步增长，股票和基金配置增加，投资收益波动较小。4）股息较高：优异的成本管控能力和较稳定的投资业绩带来了稳健的净利润表现，18-22年归母净利润CAGR达14.6%，分红率稳定在40%左右，股息率均值达6.2%。投资建议：复盘历史走势，中国财险在承保和投资盈利拐点时往往有较好投资机会。我们预计2024年其保费规模延续稳定增长；而COR随着赔付率基数效应消除、全面降本增效及风险减量服务推进或同比改善，增强公司抵御市场波动能力的同时保证分红水平稳定；在当前权益市场波动加剧以及无风险利率下行背景下，其“低波红利”的稀缺性和配置性价比凸显，受到避险和长线资金青睐。当前PB约处于2012年以来31%分位区间，ROE约处于25%分位区间，PB-ROE约处于65%分位区间。预计2024年在投资ROE稳定情况下，承保利润率改善或带动ROE向上，为估值修复打开空间，但需注意短期股价向上催化还需要港股市场环境配合，建议关注，维持“买入”评级。风险提示：权益市场大幅波动；利率大幅下行；监管趋严；大灾超预期。主要财务指标会计年度2022A2023E2024E2025E总保费收入（亿元）4,8755,1875,5776,019同比增长(%)8.56.47.57.9归属股东净利润(亿元)267.1226.2320.1370.9同比增长(%)19.4-15.341.515.9承保利润率(%)2.41.92.52.7ROE（%）12.910.413.714.6每股净资产（元）9.4310.0410.9111.91每股收益(元)1.201.021.441.67每股股利（元）0.480.410.580.67来源：Wind，此处为原会计准则下数据，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-2-海外公司深度研究报告KeyDataFebruary21,2024ClosingPrice（HKD）10.06TotalShares(Mn)22,243SharesOutstanding(Mn)6,899NetAssets(HKD/Mn)250,077TotalAssets(HKD/Mn)751,533BVPS(HKD)11.10Source:Wind，IndustrialSecuritiesResearchInstituteAnalystBoZhangzhangboyjs@xyzq.com.cnSFC：BMM189SAC：S0190519060002YinSunsunyin@xyzq.com.cnSAC：S0190521060002LiangliangTangtangliangliang@xyzq.com.cnSAC:S0190523080002Notice:YinSun,LiangliangTangarenotlicenseholdersregisteredattheSecuritiesandFuturesCommission(SFC),andarenotallowedtoengageinregulatedactivitiesinHongKong.Buy(Maintain)InsurancePICCP&CStockConnect(SH/SZ)(02328.HK)Excellenceinworkisonlypossiblewithdiligence,successinactionisonlypossiblewiththoughtFebruary22,2024＃summary＃Briefintroduction:Asalargestate-ownedinsurancecompanywithcomprehensivestrengthandapremiumscaleattheforefrontoftheglobalpropertyandcasualtyinsurancemarket,PICCP&Cnotonlypossessestheuniqueoperatingcharacteristicsofapropertyandcasualtyinsurancecompany,butalsohasadeepoperatingmoat.Inrecentyears,inthefaceofcontinuousdownwardpressureoninterestrates,comparedwithotherlistedinsurerswithmainlylifeinsurancebusiness,PICCP&Chasgraduallyrealizeditsadvantagessuchasshorterdurationofliabilities,lowercost,lessfluctuationinleverageandROE,bettersolvencyundertheSolvencyIIrules,andlessconstraintsoncapital.Inaddition,thecompanyhasadheredtoreformandinnovationinrecentyears,promotingsteadygrowthinpremiumscalewhilecomprehensivelyreducingcostsandincreasingefficiency,andunderwritingprofitabilitycontinuestoberefined;coupledwithahigherlevelofdividendsandbetterdividendperformance,it'slong-terminvestmentvaluecontinuestoimprove.Operationanalysis:Solidscalegrowthandexcellentcostcontrol.1)Scaleleadership:Networkthroughoutthecountry,marketshareisfarahead.2023Jan-Nov,premiummarketshare32.5%,morethanthesecondandthirdplacecombined.Autoinsuranceafterthecomprehensiveautoinsurancereformtestbacktogrowth,sharestabilizedbetween32-33%;subsequentconsiderationoftherenewalrateimprovement+electricvehiclefirstmoveradvantage,scalegrowthisexpectedtocontinue.Non-autoinsurancepremiumsmaintaindouble-digitgrowth,andtheshareofpremiumscontinuestoincrease,andthesharewillincreaseto44.6%in2023.Forprimarynon-autoinsurance,agriculturalinsurancemarketshareofnearlyhalf,therapiddevelopmentofaccidentandhealthinsurance,potentialtodriverapidgrowthinnon-autoinsurance.2)Excellentcostcontrolability:CORperformanceisexcellentandunderwritingprofitabilitycontinuedtorefine.Forautoinsurance,thecostratioimprovedafterabriefriseunderthecomprehensivereform,andisexpectedtoimprovesteadilywiththeoptimizationofstructureandimprovementofoperatingcapacity.Fornon-autoinsurance,CORfluctuationislarge,andprofitimprovementisdrivenbybusinessstructureadjustmentandriskreductionservices.3)Soundinvestment:PICCP&C’sinvestmentassetshavegrownsteadily.Inrecentyears,theproportionofallocationtoequityandfundassetshasbeenincreasingwithlessvolatileinvestmentreturns.4)Higherdividend:excellentcostcontrolabilityandstableinvestmentperformancehaveresultedinsolidnetprofitperformance,withnetprofitgrowingataCAGRof14.6%over18-22years,anddividendpayoutratiostabilizedataround40