中国财险：业精于勤，行成于思

港股通（沪/深） 买入（gestionChange＃维持） ＃title＃业精于勤，行成于思 2024年2月22日 投资要点 基本情况：中国财险作为综合实力强劲的大型国有保险公司，保费规模居全球财险市场前列，不仅具备财险公司独特的经营特质，还拥有深厚的经营护城河。近年来，面对利率持续下行压力，相比其他以寿险业务为主的上市险企，中国财险负债久期短+成本低、杠杆及ROE波动较小、偿二代二期规则下偿付能力更优、受资本约束更小等优势逐步显现。此外，公司近年来坚持改革创新，推动保费规模稳健增长的同时全面降本增效，承保盈利能力持续精进；加之较高的分红水平和较好的股息表现，公司长期投资价值不断提升。 经营分析：规模增长稳健，成本管控优良。1）规模领先：网点遍布全国，市场份额遥遥领先。2023年1-12月，保费市占率32.5%，超二三名之和。车险经受综改考验后重回增长，份额稳定在32-33%之间；后续考虑续保率改善+新能源车先发优势，规模增长有望延续。非车保费保持两位数增长，保费占比持续提升，2023年占比提升至44.6%。核心非车险种中，农险市场份额近半，意健险发展迅猛，或带动非车整体延续较快增长。2）成本优良：COR表现优异，承保盈利能力持续精进。车险方面，综改下成本率短暂抬升后改善，预计随着结构优化及经营能力改进稳中向好。非车方面，成本率波动较大，通过业务结构调整和风险减量服务带动盈利改善。3）投资稳健：规模稳步增长，股票和基金配置增加，投资收益波动较小。4）股息较高：优异的成本管控能力和较稳定的投资业绩带来了稳健的净利润表现，18-22年归母净利润CAGR达14.6%，分红率稳定在40%左右，股息率均值达6.2%。 ＃relatedReport＃相关报告 《综合成本率微升，盈利状况稳定》20230831海外公司跟踪报告 海外研究 投资建议：复盘历史走势，中国财险在承保和投资盈利拐点时往往有较好投资机会。我们预计2024年其保费规模延续稳定增长；而COR随着赔付率基数效应消除、全面降本增效及风险减量服务推进或同比改善，增强公司抵御市场波动能力的同时保证分红水平稳定；在当前权益市场波动加剧以及无风险利率下行背景下，其“低波红利”的稀缺性和配置性价比凸显，受到避险和长线资金青睐。当前PB约处于2012年以来31%分位区间，ROE约处于25%分位区间，PB-ROE约处于65%分位区间。预计2024年在投资ROE稳定情况下，承保利润率改善或带动ROE向上，为估值修复打开空间，但需注意短期股价向上催化还需要港股市场环境配合，建议关注，维持“买入”评级。 分析师：张博zhangboyjs@xyzq.com.cnSFC：BMM189SAC：S0190519060002 孙寅sunyin@xyzq.com.cnSAC：S0190521060002 风险提示：权益市场大幅波动；利率大幅下行；监管趋严；大灾超预期。 唐亮亮tangliangliang@xyzq.com.cnSAC：S0190523080002 请注意，孙寅、唐亮亮并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管的活动。 PICCP&C Buy (02328.HK) (Maintain) Excellenceinworkisonlypossiblewithdiligence,successinactionisonlypossiblewiththoughtFebruary22,2024 Insurance ＃summary＃Briefintroduction:As a large state-owned insurance company withcomprehensivestrengthandapremiumscaleattheforefrontoftheglobalpropertyandcasualtyinsurancemarket,PICCP&Cnotonlypossessestheuniqueoperatingcharacteristicsofapropertyandcasualtyinsurancecompany,butalsohasadeepoperatingmoat.Inrecentyears,inthefaceofcontinuousdownwardpressureoninterestrates,compared with other listed insurers with mainly life insurancebusiness,PICCP&Chasgraduallyrealizeditsadvantagessuchasshorterdurationofliabilities,lowercost,lessfluctuationinleverageandROE,bettersolvencyunderthe Solvency II rules,and less constraints on capital.In addition,thecompanyhasadheredtoreformandinnovationinrecentyears,promotingsteadygrowthinpremiumscalewhilecomprehensivelyreducingcostsandincreasingefficiency,andunderwritingprofitabilitycontinuestoberefined;coupledwithahigherlevel of dividends and better dividend performance,it's long-terminvestmentvaluecontinuestoimprove. Analyst BoZhangzhangboyjs@xyzq.com.cnSFC：BMM189SAC：S0190519060002 YinSunsunyin@xyzq.com.cnSAC：S0190521060002 Operationanalysis:Solid scale growth and excellent cost control.1)Scaleleadership:Network throughout the country,market share is far ahead.2023Jan-Nov,premium marketshare 32.5%,morethan the second andthird placecombined.Autoinsuranceafterthecomprehensiveautoinsurancereformtestbacktogrowth,share stabilized between 32-33%;subsequent consideration of therenewalrateimprovement+electricvehiclefirstmoveradvantage,scalegrowthisexpectedtocontinue.Non-autoinsurancepremiumsmaintaindouble-digitgrowth,andtheshareofpremiumscontinuestoincrease,andthesharewillincreaseto44.6%in 2023.For primary non-auto insurance,agriculturalinsurance marketshareof nearly half,the rapid development of accident and health insurance,potentialtodriverapidgrowthinnon-autoinsurance.2)Excellentcostcontrolability:CORperformanceisexcellentandunderwritingprofitabilitycontinuedtorefine.Forautoinsurance,thecostratioimprovedafterabriefriseunderthecomprehensivereform,andisexpectedtoimprovesteadilywiththeoptimizationofstructureandimprovementofoperatingcapacity.Fornon-autoinsurance,CORfluctuationis large,and profit improvement is driven by business structureadjustmentand risk reduction services.3)Sound investment:PICC P&C’sinvestmentassetshavegrownsteadily.Inrecentyears,theproportionofallocationtoequityandfundassetshasbeenincreasingwithlessvolatileinvestmentreturns.4)Higher dividend:excellent cost control ability and stable investmentperformancehaveresultedinsolidnetprofitperformance,withnetprofitgrowingataCAGRof14.6%over18-22years,anddividendpayoutratiostabilizedataround40%,withanaveragedividendyieldof6.2%. LiangliangTangtangliangliang@xyzq.com.cnSAC:S0190523080002 Notice:YinSun,LiangliangTangarenotlicenseholdersregisteredattheSecuritiesandFuturesCommission(SFC),andarenotallowedtoengageinregulatedactivitiesinHongKong. Investmentadvice:Reviewingthehistoricaltrend,PICCP&Ctendstohavebetterinvestmentopportunitiesatunderwritingandinvestmentprofitinflectionpoints. Weexpectitspremiumscaletocontinuetogrowsteadilyin2024;whileCORwilllikelyimproveyear-on-yearwiththeeliminationofthebaseeffectoftheclaimrate,comprehensive cost reduction and efficiency and risk reduction servicepromotion.Thesewillenhancethecompany'sabilitytowithstandmarketvolatilitywhileensuringstabledividendlevels.Inthecurrentequitymarketvolatilityandrisk-freeinterestratedownwardbackground,its"low-wavedividend"scarcityandconfigurationofcost-effectivehighlights,bythehedgeandlong-termcapitalfavor.Thecurre