China Property: Weekly sales up 3.3% WoW in second week of August

Deutsche Bank Markets Research Asia China Property Property Industry China Property Date 15 August 2016 Industry Update Weekly sales up 3.3% WoW in second week of August Weekly sales up 3.3% WoW, 2.8% MoM, and 19.8% YoY ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 057/04/2016. Jason Ching, CFA Research Analyst (+852 ) 2203 6205 jason.ching@db.com Foo Leung Research Associate (+852 ) 2203 6239 foo.leung@db.com Iris Poon Research Associate (+852) 2203 6182 iris.poon@db.com Top picks China Resources Land (1109.HK),HKD21.85 Buy China Jinmao (0817.HK),HKD2.40 Buy Guangzhou R&F (2777.HK),HKD12.60 Buy Longfor (0960.HK),HKD11.62 Buy Source: Deutsche Bank Companies Featured China Resources Land (1109.HK),HKD21.85 Buy China Jinmao (0817.HK),HKD2.40 Buy Guangzhou R&F (2777.HK),HKD12.60 Buy Longfor (0960.HK),HKD11.62 Buy China Evergrande (3333.HK),HKD5.87 Sell Agile Group (3383.HK),HKD4.92 Sell Country Garden Holdings (2007.HK),HKD3.46 Sell Sunac (1918.HK),HKD5.70 Sell China Vanke (2202.HK),HKD20.50 Hold Sino Ocean (3377.HK),HKD3.68 Hold Source: Deutsche Bank In the second week of August (August 8-14), total sales volume in 33 major cities tracked by Soufun increased by 3.3% WoW to 5.571msqm, up slightly after a double-digit drop in the first week of August. The weekly sales volume in 34 cities increased by 2.8% MoM and 19.8% YoY. For August MTD, sales volume dropped 0.4% MoM to 10.78msqm in 32 cities and was up 18.9% YoY to 10.52msqm in 33 cities. YTD sales volume increased by 30.4% YoY (25 cities). ASP YTD stood at RMB15,949psqm, up 24.8% YoY (19 cities). Sales volume in Tier-1 cities up 2.7% WoW The sales volume in Tier-1 cities rose 2.7% WoW to 982ksqm during the week. Volume was down 0.7% MoM but up 1.7% YoY. MTD sales volume was down 0.6% MoM but up 1.7% YoY. YTD volume was up 3.0% YoY to 32.0msqm. The ASP YTD in Tier-1 cities was RMB31,020psqm, up 40.2% YoY. Sales volume in Tier-2 cities down 2.9% WoW Sales volume in Tier-2 cities fell 2.9% WoW (15 cities) to 3.31msqm. Volume rose 1.7% MoM (15 cities) and 27.4% YoY (14 cities). MTD sales volume was down 0.7% (15 cities) but up 28.2% YoY (15 cities). YTD volume was reported at 91.3msqm, up 43.2% YoY (12 cities). The ASP YTD in Tier-2 cities stood at RMB15,305psqm, up 24.2% YoY (nine cities). Sales volume in Tier-3 cities up 24.6% WoW Sales volume in Tier-3 cities increased 24.6% WoW (14 cities) to 1,285ksqm. Volume was up 8.4% MoM (15 cities) and up 19.4% YoY (16 cities). MTD sales for 13 cities were up 0.7% MoM and up 13.5% YoY (15 cities). YTD volume was reported at 29.5msqm, up 32% YoY (nine cities). The ASP YTD in Tier-3 cities stood at RMB6,868psqm, down 4.9% YoY (six cities). Sales volumes in Tier-2 and Tier-3 cities by region 1) Yangtze River Delta – Tier-2 cities: Weekly: 593ksqm (+4% WoW); MTD: 1.16msqm (-12% MoM, -8% YoY); YTD: 25.7msqm (+40% YoY). Tier-3 cities: Weekly: 450ksqm (+2% WoW); MTD: 894ksqm, (-17% MoM, +22% YoY); YTD: 15.6msqm (+36% YoY). 2) Guangdong and Fujian Province region – Tier-2 cities: Weekly: 63ksqm (-23.7% WoW); MTD: 146ksqm (-30% MoM, -29% YoY); YTD: 2.19msqm (+21% YoY). Tier-3 cities: Weekly: 308ksqm (+36% WoW); MTD: 351ksqm (+8% MoM, -1% YoY); YTD: 4.81msqm (+82% YoY). 3) Western region – Tier-2 cities: Weekly: 593ksqm (-5.9% WoW); MTD: 1.22msqm (-13% MoM, -3% YoY); YTD: 11.8msqm (-0.1% YoY). 4) Central – Tier-2 cities: Weekly: 649ksqm (-24.4% WoW); MTD: 1.51msqm (+14% MoM, +43% YoY); YTD: 24.0msqm (+56% YoY). Tier-3 cities: Weekly: 291ksqm (+44% WoW); MTD: 493ksqm (+31% MoM, +20% YoY); YTD: 7.18msqm (+10% YoY). 5) North-eastern region – Tier-2 cities: Weekly: 1.41msqm (+11.4% WoW); MTD: 2.67msqm (+7% MoM; +67% YoY); YTD: 27.6msqm (+68% YoY). Tier-3 cities: Weekly: 153ksqm (+71% WoW); MTD: 243ksqm (+25% MoM; +11% YoY); YTD: 1.90msqm (+9% YoY). Distributed on: 08/15/2016 15:39:44GMT 15 August 2016 Property China Property Page 2 Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong Weekly transaction volumes 40 cities’ total weekly transaction volumes Figure 1: Weekly transaction volumes of the major cities in China 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 Jan-09May-09Sep-09Jan-10May-10Sep-10Jan-11May-11Sep-11Jan-12May-12Sep-12Jan-13May-13Sep-13Jan-14May-14Sep-14Jan-15May-15Sep-15Jan-16May-16ksqm S