Emerging Markets Monthly: EM: Half Full, Half Empty…

Deutsche Bank Markets Research Emerging Markets Economics Foreign Exchange Rates Credit Date 9 June 2016 Emerging Markets MonthlyEM: Half Full, Half Empty... Taimur Baig Drausio Giacomelli Hongtao Jiang Sameer Goel (+65) 64 23-8681 (+1) 212 250-7355 (+1) 212-250-2524 (+65) 64 23 6973 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Note to U.S. investors: US regulators have not approved most foreign listed stock index futures and options for US investors. Eligible investors may be able to get exposure through over-the-counter products. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 057/04/2016. Special Reports How EM Fits in a Global Portfolio EM Vulnerability Monitor: Externally Safe, Internally Fragile EMFX as a Proxy-Hedge for US Equities Reassessing EMFX Sensitivity to USD and RMB China: Credit Tightening Started Solving India's Liquidity Conundrum Peru Kuczynski Presidency: Policy Challenges and Market Implications Singapore's Contrasting Structural Strength and Macro Weakness Argentina: Strategic Value and Tactical Opportunities 9 June 2016 EM Monthly: EM: Half Full, Half Empty... Page 2 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Key Economic Forecasts K e y Economic F ore ca sts20152016F2017F20152016F2017F20152016F2017F20152016F2017FGl ob al3.13.03.63.34.34.60.60.50.3- 3.4- 3.4- 3.1US2.41.52.20.11.31.9- 2.4- 2.5- 2.8- 2.4- 2.9- 2.9J ap an0.60.20.50.80.01.73.33.63.5- 4.2- 4.3- 3.7E u r ol an d1.61.51.50.00.11.33.22.62.2- 2.1- 2.0- 1.7Germany1.71.71.60.10.21.58.58.17.80.70.00.0France1.21.21.50.10.21.1-0.20.10.3-3.5-3.3-2.9Italy0.81.11.10.10.11.32.22.62.3-2.6-2.5-2.1Spain3.22.72.2-0.6-0.61.51.41.10.6-5.1-4.0-3.3Netherlands2.01.21.30.20.01.39.110.610.7-1.8-1.7-1.6Belgium1.41.01.20.61.01.70.01.01.0-2.6-2.7-2.3A ustria0.81.11.40.81.11.82.62.72.8-1.2-1.6-1.4Finland0.70.61.0-0.10.21.30.10.30.4-2.7-2.6-2.1Greece-0.3-1.01.6-1.1-0.30.8-0.11.01.2-7.2-3.7-1.8Portugal1.51.31.50.50.31.40.61.00.9-4.4-2.8-2.6Ireland7.83.83.20.00.31.74.54.03.5-2.3-1.1-0.6Ot h e r In d u st r i al Cou n t r i e s2.01.92.30.61.21.8- 1.4- 1.4- 1.0- 1.7- 1.3- 0.6United Kingdom2.31.72.10.01.11.9-4.7-4.0-3.5-4.3-3.0-2.0Sweden3.93.42.50.00.91.85.95.75.5-0.8-1.0-0.5Denmark1.21.41.80.51.11.77.07.07.0-2.5-2.5-2.0Norway1.11.02.02.22.52.39.06.56.59.06.56.5Switzerland0.91.31.5-1.1-0.50.211.49.08.00.3-0.5-0.5Canada1.11.32.01.11.82.0-3.2-2.9-1.9-0.10.31.5A ustralia2.53.23.41.51.21.8-4.8-4.5-3.9-2.4-2.4-2.2New Zealand2.52.92.60.30.92.1-3.1-3.5-3.80.30.60.8E me r g i n g E u r op e , M i d d l e E ast & A f r i c a1.11.82.48.76.86.0- 1.0- 1.5- 0.7- 5.0- 4.6- 3.5Czech Republic4.32.63.20.31.01.71.61.20.8-1.9-1.4-1.2Egypt4.23.64.011.010.59.5-3.7-4.0-3.2-11.5-11.0-9.6Hungary2.92.43.1-0.10.41.44.44.23.5-2.0-1.9-2.5Israel2.52.83.2-0.6-0.50.64.74.34.2-2.1-2.9-2.9Kazakhstan1.52.03.66.414.26.5-3.0-3.7-1.9-3.2-0.20.1Nigeria2.82.64.19.011.09.5-3.2-3.2-2.0-3.4-4.3-3.0Poland3.63.63.5-0.9-0.61.2-0.2-0.8-1.1-2.6-2.9-3.0Romania3.74.03.0-0.6-0.22.6-0.7-1.1-1.5-1.2-2.9-3.0Russia-3.7-0.70.515.59.27.14.35.05.0-2.7-2.1-1.6Saudi A rabia3.41.41.62.24.04.0-8.2-12.2-6.8-15.9-14.0-9.5South A frica1.30.11.04.66.96.4-4.4-3.0-3.6-3.9-3.5-3.4Turkey4.04.03.87.77.47.5-4.5-4.5-4.8-1.2-1.8-1.2Ukraine-9.73.03.048.715.39.31.0-1.8-1.4-4.3-4.0-3.5United A rab Emirates3.73.02.74.22.93.32.12.53.5-4.0-2.10.3A si a (e x - J ap an )6.16.06.22.42.72.82.52.32.0- 3.1- 3.4- 3.4China6.96.76.71.41.81.82.72.72.5-3.5-4.0-4.0Hong Kong2.41.83.03.03.53.03.14.63.41.60.81.3India7.27.57.84.95.25.0-0.8-1.0-1.2-3.9-3.8-3.7Indonesia4.84.85.06.43.84.9-2.1-2.0-1.9-2.5-2.7-2.7Korea2.62.42.60.71.11.77.77.56.1-0.3-0.5-0.5Malaysia5.04.25.02.12.02.83.01.92.0-3.2-3.1-2.9Philippines5.96.05.81.42.23.22.91.10.7-0.9-2.0-2.7Singapore2.02.03.0-0.50.11.519.819.619.51.72.22.8Sri Lanka4.85.56.00.94.05.5-2.5-2.7-2.8-7.4-5.5-5.0Taiwan0.71.32.5-0.31.21.114.615.414.4-1.5-2.0-2.0Thailand2.82.52.5-0.90.51.89.35.33.8-2.0-2.1-2.2Vietnam6.76.77.00.62.95.00.5-0.8-3.1-5.6-5.0-5.0Lat i n A me r i c a- 0.4- 0.61.915.227.026.0- 3.2- 2.1- 2.3- 7.4- 6.4- 6.0A rgentina2.0-0.63.028.336.518.7-3.8-1.8-2.8-7.4-6.4-5.9Brazil-3.8-3.21.09.08.86.0-3.3-0.8-1.3-10.4-8.9-8.6Chile2.11.62.74.34.03.3-2.0-3.3-2.5-2.1-1.3-1.9Colombia3.12.43.15.07.74.0-6.6-5.7-4.9-3.0-4.0-3.5Mexico2.52.42.82.43.13.4-2.5-2.7-2.9-3.8-3.4-3.0Peru3.33.64.23.54.03.4-4.4-3.7-2.9-2.1-2.6-2.4Venezuela-5.7-7.6-3.2120.0320.0390.0-0.3-0.90.2-19.5-15.8-15.0M e mor an d u m Li n e s: 1/G71.81.21.70.20.91.8- 0.2- 0.3- 0.4- 2.5- 2.7- 2.4Industrial Countries1.91.41.80.20.81.70.1- 0.1- 0.3- 2.4- 2.5- 2.2Emerging Markets4.14.24.85.66.96.60.90.90.8- 4.2- 4.1- 3.8BRICs4.85.25.84.44.03.51.41.61.4- 4.2- 4.2- 4.1For Egypt numbers are reported for financ ial year ending June.Real GDP (%)Consumer prices (% pavg)Current account (% GDP)Fiscal balance (% GDP)1/ Aggregates are PPP- weighted within the aggregate indic ated. For instanc e, EM growth is c alc ulated by taking the sum of eac h EM c ountry's individual growth rate multiplied it by its share in