0东北产区现货企稳玉米基差有望回归中州期货武汉研究中心农产品小组2023/2/26投资咨询：吴晓杰Z0014054联系人：李家文F3087188 qRnOrRnMvMzRoRoOoNmMpO7N8Q6MoMpPmOsRkPpPpMjMoOsR7NrQtOuOpOqQuOpNtP22、进口方面-22/23年度南美玉米存在变数（2月）全球玉米产需2015/162016/172017/182018/192019/202020/212021/222022/23 Jan2022/23 Feb同比环比产量571556417361208644036282662369693176345562955-6362-500阿根廷295041003200510051005200530052004700-600-500巴西670098508200101001020087001160012500125009000美国367013847838439364263459636025383943487534875-35190墨西哥25972758275627602666270027602760276000欧盟587461906202643666756714705054205420-16300乌克兰233327972411358135893030421327002700-15130库存688491928706777670184518615456175510-644-107阿根廷14452724023736211814914914900巴西679140293152952347346572575529030美国481158255792564148762837365731543217-44063墨西哥415540564516351307338316316-220欧盟692743898764758694868734734-1340乌克兰1431552818914889677539339-338-200出口102381399712931163891509316028175201566015860-1660200阿根廷216525982247372436254096390038003500-400-300巴西139931602415396835232200445047005000550300美国482058246192524845136973635048904890-14600欧盟195281273417539373520220220-3000乌克兰165921341804303228932386230020502250-50200进口71696927779488298652108321002099101006040150东南亚152513571420166617262092166016401590-70-50韩国10129221002108611881150117011001100-700墨西哥139514611613166616531650175017201720-300欧盟140014251847235817381449160021502350750200日本152015161567160515891540154015001500-400中国3172463454487582951230018001800-5000 33、进口方面-美玉米2月供需平衡表美玉米15/1616/1717/1818/1919/2020/2121/2222/23 1月22/23 2月环比幅度种植面积889490.289.189.790.793.488.688.60 0.0%收获面积80.886.782.781.881.382.385.479.279.20 0.0%单产168.4174.6176.6178.4167.4171.4177173.3173.30 0.0%期初库存4397 4412 5824 5436 5641 4874 3137 3498 3498 0 0.0%产量34549 38476 37107 36424 34595 35842 38392 34874 34874 0 0.0%进口173 145 91 71 107 61 64 127 127 0 0.0%总供给39119 43033 43023 41930 40343 40777 41593 38499 38499 0 0.0%饲料残余12997 13894 13472 13790 14986 14219 14288 13399 13399 0 0.0%FSI消费16881 17488 17925 17254 15966 16434 17310 17056 16993 -64 -0.4%乙醇13269 13797 14237 13660 12337 12784 13653 13399 13335 -64 -0.5%国内消费29878 31382 31397 31044 30953 30653 31598 30455 30391 -64 -0.2%出口4829 5827 6193 5248 4514 6993 6223 4890 4890 0 0.0%总消费34707 37209 37590 36292 35466 37645 37821 35344 35281 -64 -0.2%期末库存4412 5824 5433 5639 4877 3132 3772 3155 3218 64 2.0%库存消费比11.86%15.49%14.97%15.90%12.95%8.32%9.97%8.93%9.12% 44、进口方面-巴西玉米供需平衡表15/1616/1717/1818/1919/2020/2121/2222/23 12月22/23 1月环比同比期初库存1053 523 1588 1458 1019 1060 778 719 529 -190 -250 产量6653 9784 8071 10004 10252 8706 11281 12583 12506 -77 1226 进口334 95 90 160 145 298 190 250 280 30 90 供应8040 10403 9749 11622 11416 10064 12249 13552 13315 -237 1066 消费5632 5733 5916 6496 6866 7193 7700 8081 8081 0 381 出口1885 3081 2374 4107 3489 2090 3700 4500 4500 0 800 期末库存523 1588 1458 1019 1060 781 849 971 734 -237 -114 库销比5.9%19.2%13.8%9.8%11.4%6.8%7.4%7.7%5.8% 501020304050607080901002020/9/102020/10/102020/11/102020/12/102021/1/102021/2/1017/1818/1919/2020/2121/2222/230%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%38394041424344454647484950515253545556575820/2121/2222/235、进口方面-关注巴西二季玉米播种进度截止2月16日，巴西二季玉米播种进度33.3%，同期34%；截止2月16日，阿根廷玉米优率11%，同期28%。巴西玉米一季玉米播种进度阿根廷玉米播种进度33.3%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%90.0%100.0%45678910111213141516172020202120222023巴西玉米二季玉米播种进度110102030405060708090100424344454647484950515253123456789101119/2020/2121/2222/23阿根廷玉米优良率 66、进口方面-巴西玉米持续降雨，影响玉米播种 77、进口方面-22/23年度已进口谷物数量996万吨谷物进口：截止10-12月中国22/23进口谷物数量996万吨，同期1386万吨。作物年度玉米进口高粱进口大麦进口小麦进口DDGS进口木薯干进口豌豆进口进口碎米合计17/18345 444 814 305 10 587 185 70 2761 18/19448 65 518 261 15 322 200 53 1882 19/20758 371 597 700 13 319 244 72 3075 20/212951 867 1205 985 28 501 276 226 7039 21/222189 1099 828 872 21 717 159 380 6266 22/23216 121 135 333 0 91 62 39 996 同比18/19103 -378 -296 -44 4 -265 15 -17 -879 19/20310 306 79 439 -1 -2 44 19 1193 20/212193 496 608 285 15 182 31 154 3964 21/22-763 232 -377 -114 -7 216 -116 154 -774 80501001502002503003504002019/102019/112019/122020/012020/022020/032020/042020/052020/062020/072020/082020/092020/102020/112020/122021/012021/022021/032021/042021/052021/062021/072021/082021/092021/102021/112021/122022/012022/022022/032022/042022/052022/062022/072022/082022/092022/102022/112022/122023/012023/022023/032023/042023/052023/062023/072023/082023/09进口玉米分国别乌克兰美国巴西8、进口方面-22/23年度未来进口玉米到港预测 99、进口方面-重点关注中国采购美玉米进度242014/152015/162016/172017/182018/192019/202020/212021/222022/23周环比同比本周装运6968081,2528525,4907611,3871,618671-947累计装运16,63813,98522,05316,48924,75612,65122,97022,33313,676671-8,657已装运（中国）8310328616,5724,0934,0570未装船17,44512,56719,92021,06313,56012,35735,58524,20014,141354-10,059未装船（中国）801168158011,1497,982424126-7,558未装船（未知）5,6573,7265,5936,3431,7731,9637,9112,4832,57024787未装船（合计）5,6663,7275,5946,5111,9301,96319,06010,4652,994373-7,471年度装运45,20446,68454,69957,20948,92445,08572,39062,23048,895-13,335装运进度36.8%30.0%40.3%28.8%50.6%28.1%31.7%35.9%28.0%剩余装运28,56632,69932,64640,72024,16832,43449,42039,89735,219-4,678周需装运9851,1281,1261,4048331,1181,7041,3761,214-161本周净销9328717831,5556,0291,2499998